Is US HIV/AIDS PEPFAR Coming to an End?

 The New York Times published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "U.S. Quietly Drafts Plan to End Program That Saved Millions from AIDS" by Stephanie Nolen.

Planning documents for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) obtained by The New York Times call for changes that would effectively end the program.  The planning documents, which have not yet been approved by the senior level of the State Department, would replace PEPFAR by "bilateral relationships" with low-income countries focused on the detection of outbreaks that could threaten the United States and the creation of new markets for American drugs and technologies.  

Sharp Reductions in USAID Funding for Combatting HIV/AIDS Having an Impact in Africa

 The Pulitizer Center published on 5 June 2025 a story titled "U.S. Aid Helped Two African Countries Rein in HIV.  Then Came Trump" by Jon Cohen.  

President George W. Bush's PEPFAR program controlled the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS in countries like Eswatini and Lesotho.  Significant cuts in the PEPFAR program by the Trump administration are already interrupting this lifesaving assistance.  

A Former Republican USAID Administrator: Don't Gut the Organization

 Foreign Affairs published on 7 February 2025 an article titled "Don't Gut USAID" by Andrew Natsios, administrator of USAID during the George W. Bush administration.  

The author argues the Trump administration stop work order for USAID has paralyzed US aid programs around the world, bankrupting fragile local aid groups and small businesses and putting lives at risk.  Simply slashing vital programs is a huge mistake, but a far-reaching review and restructuring of US foreign aid is overdue.  If USAID disappears, the Trump administration will cede the field to China and Russia.  

Former USAID Leaders Under Republican and Democratic Presidents Oppose Dismantling Organization

 CNN posted on 5 February 2025 an article titled "Republican and Democratic Former USAID Leaders Speak Out against Trump's Attempts to Dismantle Agency" by Jennifer Hansler.

Five former leaders of the US Agency for International Development have spoken out against the Trump administration's attempts to dismantle the humanitarian agency and called on Congress "to swiftly protect the Agency's statutory role."  

The five former administrators are Samantha Power (Biden administration), Gayle Smith (Obama administration), Andrew Natsios (George W. Bush administration), Brian Atwood (Clinton administration), and Peter McPherson (Reagan administration).

Comment:  A notable absentee from this list is Mark Green, who served as USAID administrator during the first Trump administration.  

US Africa Strategy in Face of China and Russia

The International Policy Digest posted on 30 July 2019 a commentary titled "More Than Just Investment: Why America Was Once So Popular in Africa" by Nick J. Danby.

The author concluded that while countering Chinese and Russian influence in Africa remains a top priority for the U.S., the most prudent way to win over African leaders and citizens is by demonstrating that American officials truly care about Africa's well-being. He cited as evidence the support the George W. Bush administration gave to combating HIV/AIDS with the PEPFAR program and the positive response it received from Africans.

Trump's Africa Policy

Lobelog posted on 23 April 2018 a commentary titled "Trump's Africa Policy Is a Continuation of Clinton's, Bush's, and Obama's" by Herman J. Cohen, former assistant secretary of state for African affairs.

Cohen underscores the continuity in US policy towards Africa from one administration to another that has continued so far into the Trump administration.

Policy differences between Bush and Obama administrations toward Somalia

The VOA Somali service asked me to comment yesterday on the policy differences towards Somalia between the Bush and Obama administrations. I responded that the Bush administration focused primarily on countering terrorism and providing humanitarian assistance through UN and non-governmental organizations. While the Obama administration continues to deal with these challenges, it has rearranged priorities and made a greater effort to strengthen the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of President Ahmed, who assumed power about the same time that President Obama took office. The focus is now on political support for the TFG while continuing humanitarian assistance and not ignoring counter terrorism.

Q & A from McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief on Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Africa

Below is the transcript of my Q&A with Shashank Bengali, McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief, on July 30, 2009, which resulted in the article I mentioned in this post. UPDATE 8/4: Bengali has posted on the story on his blog Somewhere in Africa. SB: What’s the main message the Obama administration and Clinton are trying to send with this trip? Amb. Shinn: The main purpose is to underscore, following the President’s visit to Ghana earlier in July that the Obama administration is interested in strengthening relations with sub-Saharan Africa. A continuing subtext will be, as the President said before the Ghanaian Parliament, that Africa’s future is up to Africans. The administration is placing more responsibility on Africans themselves for resolving their problems and improving economic development. Having said that, I believe the Secretary’s visit will produce some “good cop” rhetoric to offset the “tough cop” remarks of the President. SB: Some activists have criticized the Obama administration for not making Africa a top priority, citing a lack of engagement on Somalia, Congo and other trouble spots. Are those criticisms founded? Will Clinton’s tour address those concerns? Amb Shinn: First, we need a reality check. Africa has never been a top priority of any American administration. After four years of the Obama administration I believe that Africa will have been given more attention than has been the case with any previous American administration. But it will still not reach a top foreign policy priority. Europe, Asia and Latin America are all economically more important. Europe has close cultural and historical ties. Latin America is geographically closer. Even the Middle East and South Asia are strategically more important. It is necessary to keep Africa in perspective. Africa is becoming more important. About 20 percent of America’s imported oil comes from the African continent. Is it any surprise that Secretary Clinton is visiting Nigeria and Angola, two major oil exporters to the United States? Some 12 percent of the American population has African origins and the father of the American President was, of course, a Kenyan. There may be an added focus on this connection between the United States and Africa. I would argue that the Obama administration, which has only been in office for six months, has been exceedingly active in two of Africa’s major conflicts—Sudan and Somalia. I have not seen much activity on the Congo, but believe this will soon change. Finally, by definition activists criticize. If they didn’t, they would no longer be activists. SB: What’s the significance of Clinton’s meeting with Somali President Sheik Sharif Ahmed? [Pictured below, BBC] Won’t it merely underline Sharif’s ties to the West, which his opponents already criticize? Amb. Shinn: The most vocal opponents of President Ahmed are the extremist al-Shabaab and a few allied organizations. The United States and most of the rest of the world has no interest in catering to their concerns. The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Congress and virtually the entire international community support the Somali Transitional Federal Government led by President Ahmed. I don’t believe there is any apprehension about alienating his extremist opponents. You can expect that Secretary Clinton will strongly support President Ahmed. SB: Do you anticipate any major headlines coming out of the trip? Amb. Shinn: This is an interesting question. Most probably there will be some headlines. I have the impression that the Obama administration wants to change the approach to food security in Africa. Candidate Obama talked about a “green revolution” in Africa during the presidential campaign. The U.S. secretary of agriculture will accompany the secretary of state to Kenya. There could be a major initiative announced on food security and support for African agriculture. On a bilateral level, there may be a resuscitation of the binational commission with South Africa. This existed during the presidency of Bill Clinton but disappeared under President Bush. I suspect either a binational commission or something similar will be revived. Secretary Clinton is a personality in her own right. Most of the “headlines” may be of the human interest and anecdotal variety. Actually, I hope this is not the case. This trip should emphasize policy and substance. SB: What is one country that you think Clinton should visit, but isn’t? Amb. Shinn: There are actually three candidates, but First Lady Hillary Clinton visited two of them — Senegal and Tanzania — in 1997. I can understand why she chose different countries, except for South Africa, on this itinerary. That leaves one major omission in my view — Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa and a close ally of the United States. Although Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Ethiopia in 2007, this would be a good occasion to underscore the importance the United States attaches to Ethiopian civil society, human rights and a good electoral process in 2010. In addition, Secretary Clinton could express appreciation to Ethiopia for support on regional conflicts and countering extremism.

Pres. Obama lays out general Africa themes, but we still need the details.

I participated in the BBC radio "Focus on Africa" program today concerning the visit to Ghana by President Obama. Most of the participants focused on the president's call to Africans to take control of their own future and the need for good governance. I noted that he also emphasized a willingness by the United States to support development that offers real benefits to more people, especially the improvement of agriculture and food security. Although he did not use the term in his speech in Ghana, he has called elsewhere for a green revolution in Africa. He also stated that the United States would continue the effort of President Bush to fight HIV/AIDS, malaria, and TB in Africa. He added to this list the eradication of polio and neglected tropical disease. Finally, he stated that the United States would step up its efforts to prevent and mitigate conflict in Africa, noting in particular the on-going problems in Darfur, Somalia, and the Congo. When asked what was left out of the speech, I suggested that I missed more emphasis on private American investment in Africa, as this could provide the most positive impact on improving African economies.

Book launch tomorrow

I will be making a presentation at tomorrow's launch for the book "U.S. Africa Policy beyond the Bush Years: Critical Challenges for the Obama Administration," edited by Jennifer Cooke and J. Stephen Morrison. I am a contributor to the book, along with Joel Barkan, William Bellamy, Timothy Carney, Chester Crocker, Michelle Gavin, David Goldwyn, Princeton Lyman, and Phillip Nieburg. Below are some more details about the program tomorrow, which is sponsored by the CSIS Africa Program, and which will be at the Basement Level Conference Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. (map). Opening remarks by Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, U.S. Department of State 5 - 5:30 p.m. - Cocktail Reception 5:30 - 6:30 p.m. - Opening Remarks and Roundtable Discussion with Chapter Authors A new report from the CSIS Africa Program offers a comprehensive assessment of U.S. Africa policy during the Bush years and provides recommendations in several key areas to the new Obama administration. At the event, a cocktail reception will be held to honor U.S. Africa policymakers from the previous and current administrations. The reception will be followed by a roundtable discussion with contributors to the report on how Africa will compete as a U.S. foreign policy priority in this current era. Copies of the publication will be on-hand for distribution. Please RSVP to the CSIS Africa Program at Africa@csis.org to attend.

"The U.S. and Africa: Issues and challenges"

On April 1, I addressed more than 300 U.S. military and civilian and about 20 foreign military officers at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (National Defense University) on U.S.-Africa policy. A transcript of my remarks, which touched upon several historical policy themes, U.S. interests in Africa, U.S. strategy towards Africa, an evaluation of African policy during the Bush administration, and a discussion of issues and challenges facing the Obama administration, can be accessed here.

My talk at Indiana U. on China in Africa

Indiana University, Bloomington, recently posted a transcript of my remarks at its March 6 - 7 China in Africa symposium, co-sponsored by its East Asian Studies Center's African studies program (site) and its Center for International Business Education and Research (site). My talk was titled "Comparing Engagement with Africa by China and the United States." Here's the conclusion:

Since the mid-1990s, China has made an all out effort to gain favor in Africa. It has had considerable success and in some countries Chinese influence now surpasses that of the United States. The second term of the Clinton administration significantly increased the attention it gave Africa but was not able to increase significantly financial support for the continent. The Bush administration tripled the amount of aid to Africa, but did not increase the personal contact or attention. The net result so far this decade is that China has advanced its interests in Africa to a greater extent than the United States has done. The global financial crisis will adversely affect both China’s and the United States’ ability to enhance relations with Africa. The United States still has more resources than China but China is in relatively better economic shape following the financial meltdown. If current trends continue, China may have the short-term advantage in Africa.

The entire presentation can be accessed here, in PDF format.

Article in the West Point Counterterrorism Center Sentinel

My article "Somalia’s New Government and the Challenge of Al-Shabab" appears in the West Point Counterterrorism Center Sentinel's March 2009 issue. You can download the entire issue, including the article, in PDF format. Here's a selection from the introduction:

After the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration’s foreign policy toward Somalia focused primarily on counterterrorism. This focus was a result of Somalia’s proximity to the Middle East, U.S. concern that al-Qa'ida might relocate to the country, a history of terrorist bombings targeting Western interests in nearby Kenya and Tanzania and early contact between al-Qa`ida and individuals in Somalia. Although ties exist between al-Qa'ida and Somalia’s al-Shabab militant group, the overwhelming objective of U.S. policy in Somalia should not be confronting international terrorist activity. Instead, the United States should contribute to creating a moderate government of national unity in Somalia, which offers the best hope of minimizing Somali links to international terrorism. Long-term U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa will not be served by a policy that is consumed with military action to the detriment of supporting economic development and a broad based Somali government. This article outlines al-Qa'ida's early activity in Somalia, provides background and current information on al-Shabab including its recruitment of Americans and Europeans, and finally offers some policy suggestions on how best to stabilize Somalia.

Mention in AllAfrica.com

Reporting on recent coverage of Somalia, Brian Kennedy of AllAfrica.com's Washington DC office mentions my interview with Jim Lobe for his article, "US Advised to Back Somalia Reconciliation Efforts." Brian's roundup is accessible here.

Pres. Obama's approach to East Africa

I spoke with Inter Press Service's Jim Lobe for his article "US Advised to Back Somalia Reconciliation Efforts," which argues that President Obama "is being urged to pursue a much more flexible policy toward the East African nation than his predecessor and let Somalis, including Islamist leaders who were targeted by the invasion, sort things out for themselves." Here are the passages with my quotes:

"There's a real opportunity for a positive breakthrough," according to David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia who teaches at George Washington University here. "The chances for this happening are perhaps only fifty-fifty, but, in the Somali context, a fifty-fifty chance of achieving a positive breakthrough is brilliant." ...Indeed, with the Ethiopians gone, latent differences within the Shabaab over clan and regional allegiances, as well as ideological divides over links to al Qaeda and other foreign groups, are likely to come to the surface, according to Shinn. "The key now is how much support Sheikh Sharif really has in the country," he said. "That will probably determine the ability of him and whoever his prime minister will be to create a really viable government of national unity, and, if they do that, I see an opportunity to peel away support from the Shabaab." "Much of that support is there because they pay well, they have weapons, and they are pretty well organized, but there is no particular ideological commitment among the rank and file, and if they see there's a new potential winner, and particularly one who can pay the bills, they will very seriously consider switching sides or becoming neutral or just going home," he added. In this context, the new Obama administration should support Sharif's efforts to reach out to individuals and groups that were stigmatized by the Bush administration as terrorists, according to both [Ken] Menkhaus and Shinn. "Let the Somalis talk with whomever they want to talk with," said Shinn. "Don't try to discourage them; if they can work these things out and create a broader base, that's in the long-term U.S. interest."

Read the entire article, which appears on antiwar.com, here.

My chapter is forthcoming in a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Africa Program

My chapter "China's Engagement in Africa" (PDF) is forthcoming in CSIS' report Africa Policy in the George W. Bush Years: Recommendations for the Obama Administration. The publication will be available soon in hard copy. Here's the synopsis of my chapter:

The end of Cold War interests in Africa and more recently a predominant U.S. focus on counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance have led to a decline in U.S. influence on the continent. At the same time, the dramatic expansion of China’s economy in recent decades has resulted in a huge increase of imported raw materials, especially oil, from Africa and a more vigorous and complex engagement between Beijing and various African capitals. China’s policy has changed since the 1960s from ideological support for liberation groups and revolutionary governments to a pragmatic, comprehensive, political and economic relationship with most states on the continent. While China is not the only emerging power expanding its ties with Africa, the speed and scale of China’s expansion in the last decade warrant special attention from U.S. policymakers, both in seeking areas of potential collaboration and in mitigating potential tensions and differences.