Ethiopian Diaspora in US and Impact on Politics

The Addis Fortune published on 8 November 2016 an article titled "Unlike Cubans, Ethiopian Emigres Remain Too Fragmented, Scattered to Impact US Politics" by Tamrat G. Giorgis.

The article discusses the role of the Ethiopian diaspora in the recent US presidential election and the approach of both candidates towards Ethiopia and Africa. Tamrat is currently visiting the United States.

Interview with EthioSomali.com on Horn of Africa

EthioSomali.com asked me to comment on several questions related to the Horn of Africa and elections in the United States. It posted the interview on 10 October 2016.

The topics covered included my relationship with East Africa and the Horn, a summary of the current situation in South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia/Somaliland, the geopolitical importance of the port of Djibouti, DP World of Dubai's agreement to manage the port of Berbera, and the position of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Africa.

Secretary Clinton Remarks on Somalia

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Oct. 12, 2012/CSIS

During the visit to Washington by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made public remarks about Somalia on 17 January and responded to several questions from the press.

China Daily Commentary on China-Africa

China Daily (Africa edition) ran an article titled "Mutual Benefit" about China-Africa relations on 21 December 2012 by Andrew Moody and Zhong Nan. A government-financed paper, it is not surprising that the China Daily article emphasizes the positive aspects of the China-Africa relationship.

It contains my reaction to a statement made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton more than a year ago that equated China's actions in Africa to those of neo-colonialism. I urged that the United States and China identify issues in Africa where the two countries could cooperate.

Responding to questions on the elections in Ethiopia

Ethiopian journalist Namrud Berhane Tsehai asked me to respond to several questions concerning the Ethiopian elections that took place in May 2010. His questions and my responses appear below.

Question: The EPRDF, according to the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia, won by a landslide and took 99.8 percent of the seats in parliament. Were you surprised by the results?

Answer: Yes. I thought the outcome would be about mid-way between the results of the 1995 and 2000 elections, when the opposition won virtually no seats, and the 2005 election, when the opposition did exceptionally well. As it happened, the 2010 results were similar to the election results in 1995 and 2000. This is a setback for democratic electoral politics in Ethiopia.

Question: There is an ongoing debate that the outcome of the election is an indication of how weak the opposition is in Ethiopia, while others counter that argument saying it was the ruling party's repressive tactics and intimidation that led to such results. What is your take on that?

Answer: There is some truth to both points and another, perhaps more important one. The opposition parties were weak and divided, in spite of the effort by Medrek to bring many of the parties together under one umbrella. The EPRDF also made it very difficult for the opposition parties to compete on anything approaching equal competition. Perhaps most important, however, the EPRDF controls all the levers of power such as distributing fertilizer to farmers and apparently used these levers brilliantly in assuring an overwhelming victory. To its credit, the EPRDF established a pretty solid record of economic development, but that alone would not result in such a lopsided victory.

Sec. Clinton on U.S. policy on Sudan

BBC TV asked for my reaction yesterday to the new U.S. policy on Sudan announced by Secretary Clinton earlier in the day. I replied that it reflected a new reality on the ground in both Darfur and southern Sudan. The situation in Darfur has improved and the death rate has dropped dramatically. The situation concerning implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan has become more worrisome. Although the policy proscribes the Obama administration from dealing directly with Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, I did not believe this would hinder Washington's ability to engage with Sudan, which has designated senior officials to oversee negotiations concerning both Darfur and implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. When asked about the probable reaction of human rights groups to the new policy, I responded that some of them would be displeased but hoped they too would recognize the new reality on the ground.

Interview with America.gov

I am quoted in Jim Fisher-Thompson's article "Agriculture and Energy Key to Clinton Angola Visit on Africa Trip: USAID, Chevron partner on economic diversification project" on America.gov (link), reprinted here on AllAfrica.com. Here are the relevant quotes:

David Shinn, an Africa expert and former U.S. envoy to Ethiopia who teaches political science at George Washington University, told America.gov that Angola “has been an important source of U.S. oil imports for many years and is challenging Nigeria as the largest supplier in Africa to the United States. Shinn said, “It is important, however, to take the U.S.-Angola relationship beyond oil, which totally dominates Angola's economy. Looking to the future, Angola needs to diversify.” He added: “Angola has the potential to be a rich agricultural producer. It is a country where American agricultural technology and private investment could be profitable and lead to diversification of Angola's economy. “The relationship with U.S. companies is close,” Shinn said, and could be “a significant factor in the nation’s economic development because “they were instrumental in developing the offshore oil resources.”

The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will be in the international community

I interviewed with BBC radio's "Focus on Africa" program yesterday. The questions dealt with the expulsion of an Eritrean diplomat by the Kenyan government for "security" reasons the day after Secretary Clinton departed Kenya. The key concern of the United States is Eritrea's continuing support for the extremist al-Shabaab organization that it trying to overthrow the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and the United States all support the TFG. I believe that Eritrea is the only government that supports al-Shabaab, although it does get assistance from jihadis in South Asia and the Middle East. Eritrea has long denied that it supports al-Shabaab, but the Intergovernmental Authority for Development and African Union have declared that it is supporting the extremist organization. The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will become in the international community.

Interview on VOA's Encounter program

I will a panelist today on the Voice of America's Encounter program, which will focus on Hillary Clinton's Africa tour and implications. The program will run on Sunday, and I will link the story here if it goes up online. UPDATE: 8/10/2009 The story can be accessed via this link.

U.S. showing greater support for Somalia

I am featured extensively in Joe DeCapua's story "Analyst says US Showing Greater Support for Somalia" for Voice of America. Here's the beginning:

Secretary of State Clinton met Thursday with Somali President Sharif Sheik Ahmed, expressing support for his embattled Transitional Federal Government, the TFG. The TFG is fighting Islamist militias, who control more of the country than the government does. The ongoing conflict has created one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and millions in need of food aid and other assistance. David Shinn, adjunct professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and a former ambassador to Ethiopia, considers the meeting significant. "It's the highest level meeting that any American official has ever given to President Ahmed. So that's important. It clearly underscores the interest that the United States has in reaching some sort of satisfactory resolution to the conflict in Somalia," he says. He says the amount of US moral and material support for the TFG "is greater than on any previous occasion in recent years."

You can read the story and listen to the audio through this link.

Mention in Newsweek

I was mentioned in Jason McLure's web-exclusive "Tough Talk: Barack Obama hasn't stood up to Africa's despots" in Newsweek. Here's the relevant paragraph:

Despite the rhetoric and Obama's enormous popularity on the continent, the new administration hasn't yet shown it has the stomach to stand up to Africa's strongmen. As David Shinn, a longtime U.S. diplomat in Africa pointed out in an interview with McClatchy's, Clinton looks set to play the "good cop" and smooth any feathers Obama may have ruffled in Ghana.

The article is accessible here.

Alhurra interview tomorrow

For Arabic-speaking readers, I will be interviewed live by Alhurra TV tomorrow at 2 p.m. for its Al Youm program. The live stream link should be this. The topic will be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's seven-nation trip to Africa and her meeting with Somalia's transitional government leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.

Q & A from McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief on Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Africa

Below is the transcript of my Q&A with Shashank Bengali, McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief, on July 30, 2009, which resulted in the article I mentioned in this post. UPDATE 8/4: Bengali has posted on the story on his blog Somewhere in Africa. SB: What’s the main message the Obama administration and Clinton are trying to send with this trip? Amb. Shinn: The main purpose is to underscore, following the President’s visit to Ghana earlier in July that the Obama administration is interested in strengthening relations with sub-Saharan Africa. A continuing subtext will be, as the President said before the Ghanaian Parliament, that Africa’s future is up to Africans. The administration is placing more responsibility on Africans themselves for resolving their problems and improving economic development. Having said that, I believe the Secretary’s visit will produce some “good cop” rhetoric to offset the “tough cop” remarks of the President. SB: Some activists have criticized the Obama administration for not making Africa a top priority, citing a lack of engagement on Somalia, Congo and other trouble spots. Are those criticisms founded? Will Clinton’s tour address those concerns? Amb Shinn: First, we need a reality check. Africa has never been a top priority of any American administration. After four years of the Obama administration I believe that Africa will have been given more attention than has been the case with any previous American administration. But it will still not reach a top foreign policy priority. Europe, Asia and Latin America are all economically more important. Europe has close cultural and historical ties. Latin America is geographically closer. Even the Middle East and South Asia are strategically more important. It is necessary to keep Africa in perspective. Africa is becoming more important. About 20 percent of America’s imported oil comes from the African continent. Is it any surprise that Secretary Clinton is visiting Nigeria and Angola, two major oil exporters to the United States? Some 12 percent of the American population has African origins and the father of the American President was, of course, a Kenyan. There may be an added focus on this connection between the United States and Africa. I would argue that the Obama administration, which has only been in office for six months, has been exceedingly active in two of Africa’s major conflicts—Sudan and Somalia. I have not seen much activity on the Congo, but believe this will soon change. Finally, by definition activists criticize. If they didn’t, they would no longer be activists. SB: What’s the significance of Clinton’s meeting with Somali President Sheik Sharif Ahmed? [Pictured below, BBC] Won’t it merely underline Sharif’s ties to the West, which his opponents already criticize? Amb. Shinn: The most vocal opponents of President Ahmed are the extremist al-Shabaab and a few allied organizations. The United States and most of the rest of the world has no interest in catering to their concerns. The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Congress and virtually the entire international community support the Somali Transitional Federal Government led by President Ahmed. I don’t believe there is any apprehension about alienating his extremist opponents. You can expect that Secretary Clinton will strongly support President Ahmed. SB: Do you anticipate any major headlines coming out of the trip? Amb. Shinn: This is an interesting question. Most probably there will be some headlines. I have the impression that the Obama administration wants to change the approach to food security in Africa. Candidate Obama talked about a “green revolution” in Africa during the presidential campaign. The U.S. secretary of agriculture will accompany the secretary of state to Kenya. There could be a major initiative announced on food security and support for African agriculture. On a bilateral level, there may be a resuscitation of the binational commission with South Africa. This existed during the presidency of Bill Clinton but disappeared under President Bush. I suspect either a binational commission or something similar will be revived. Secretary Clinton is a personality in her own right. Most of the “headlines” may be of the human interest and anecdotal variety. Actually, I hope this is not the case. This trip should emphasize policy and substance. SB: What is one country that you think Clinton should visit, but isn’t? Amb. Shinn: There are actually three candidates, but First Lady Hillary Clinton visited two of them — Senegal and Tanzania — in 1997. I can understand why she chose different countries, except for South Africa, on this itinerary. That leaves one major omission in my view — Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa and a close ally of the United States. Although Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Ethiopia in 2007, this would be a good occasion to underscore the importance the United States attaches to Ethiopian civil society, human rights and a good electoral process in 2010. In addition, Secretary Clinton could express appreciation to Ethiopia for support on regional conflicts and countering extremism.

Quote in McClatchy story on Hillary Clinton

I was interviewed by Shashank Bengali of McClatchy Newspapers (and the blog Somewhere in Africa) in his article "On Africa visit, Clinton won't shy away from thorny issues." Here is my quote (in the final paragraph of the article):

"The administration is placing more responsibility on Africans themselves for resolving their problems and improving economic development," said David H. Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia. "Having said that, I believe the secretary's visit will produce some 'good cop' rhetoric to offset the 'tough cop' remarks of the president."

You can view the entire article here, and it appears in a variety of publications, including the Miami Herald, the Kansas City Star, and the Sacramento Bee.

Interview with Jamaican radio about Pres. Obama's foreign policy priorities, Somalia

I did an interview today on Somalia with the Breakfast Club program in Jamaica (93 FM). When asked why President Obama is not personally engaged in the Somali issue, I noted that he has higher foreign policy priorities such as the Middle East, Iran, and North Korea. He can not be expected to be the action officer on every foreign policy challenge that confronts the United States. The U.S. foreign policy mechanism has a lot of depth. In the case of Somalia, it probably only rarely gets the attention of Secretary of State Clinton. On the other hand, an experienced expert on Africa, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson, almost certainly spends a lot of time on the issue. We also discussed the threat to the Transitional Federal Government from spoiler groups such as al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam. I emphasized that al-Shabaab is making progress because of increasing foreign financing and the recruitment of foreign fighters. While this may aid al-Shabaab over the short-term, most Somalis resent foreign involvement in their country as they demonstrated during the Ethiopian intervention. The willingness by al-Shabaab to recruit foreigners will eventually come back to haunt them. I will link the interview if and when 93 FM posts it.