Can China Fill the Foreign Aid Hole?

 Brookings published on 11 March 2025 a commentary titled "Can China Fill the Void in Foreign Aid?" by Yun Sun.

China's foreign aid has consistently been a fraction of America's.  The highly publicized Belt and Road Initiative is mostly a commercial activity with a small percentage of development finance.  China's global foreign aid budget for 2024 was $2.85 billion.  Traditionally, about half the budget goes to countries in Africa.  In 2023, USAID's global budget was about $42 billion, and the State Department provided another $19 billion.  

Not only has the United States provided far more aid, but nearly all of it is in the form of grants while the largest percentage of China's aid is the concessionary part of loans.  The dismantlement of USAID by the Trump administration will leave China with more influence in a smaller space, but it doesn't mean China can step in to fill the void.   In addition, USAID's portfolio of humanitarian assistance does not overlap with China's capabilities.  China will likely seek political, diplomatic, and economic returns for any increase in its assistance.  Most significantly, Beijing will work to exploit the opportunity of American withdrawal to portray the US as the irresponsible great power.   

Will China Replace US Foreign Aid?

 AidData published in March 2025 an analysis titled "Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats from Global Development?" by Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, and Narayani Sritharan.  

AidData concluded that Beijing is unlikely to fully step into the breach by mimicking America's historical role as the largest aid supplier in sectors such as health, governance, and humanitarian assistance.  China might approach the US dismantlement of USAID by doubling down on three existing lines of engagement: a public-private focus on a "Health Silk Road," aid-like training and capacity building of civilian government officials and security services, and China-led leadership of South-South cooperation related to emergencies and conflict.  

Upcoming 7th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

The China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies published in August 2018 a paper titled "The Path Ahead: The 7th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation" by Janet Eom, Deborah Brautigam, and Lina Benabdallah.

The 7th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) will be held in Beijing from 3-4 September 2018. This paper analyzes progress on commitments made during the 2015 FOCAC, and the trends the authors expect to emerge from the 2018 FOCAC.

China Issues White Paper on Foreign Aid

China's Information Office of the State Council issued a white paper on foreign aid in July.  It states that from 2010 to 2012, China appropriated about $14 billion in foreign aid globally.  It is not clear that this amount meets the OECD definition of foreign assistance.  More than half of the aid went to 51 African countries.  China also relieved the debt of the following countries: Tanzania, Zambia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Mali, Togo, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, and Sudan.