Foreign Policy published on 31 December 2024 an analysis titled "The Illusion of Russian Security in Africa Has Been Shattered" by Samuel Ramani, CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk.
Due to Russia's setback in Syria, African autocracies are second-guessing Moscow's ability to serve as their last line of defense in a moment of crisis. In any event, Russia's track record for providing security in Africa has been underwhelming.
Libya and Sudan are highly problematic as replacement locations for Russian air and naval bases in Syria should they be asked to leave.
