International crisis group report on Somalia

On Feb. 21, the International Crisis Group (ICG) finally released its report on Somalia. It is highly critical of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and President Sharif’s “weak leadership.”

It assigns blame for failure widely and argues “at the core of Somalia’s governance crisis is a deeply-flawed centralizing state mode.” The alternative, according to ICG, is a “more decentralized system of governance.”

It discusses the TFG’s “botched power-sharing agreement” with Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a and complains about significantly increased corruption in the TFG. It concludes that the TFG army is ineffectual and the TFG’s survival “is entirely dependent on some 8,000 troops of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).”

The report, written before the recent offensive against al-Shabaab launched by AMISOM and the TFG with help from Kenya and Ethiopia, suggests that the timing is good to pressure al-Shabaab.

On the other hand, it is not clear how much planning has been dedicated to developing a political strategy for holding and stabilizing areas that they might take from al-Shabaab.

The ICG praised the relative stability in Puntland and Somaliland and said the way forward is “a more devolved political and security structure and far greater international support for local administrations.”

You can access the entire report here.

Council on Foreign Relations report on Somalia

The Council on Foreign Relations released a report on March 10 titled "Somalia: A New Approach" by Bronwyn E. Bruton. I was one of the people on the advisory committee who offered comments on the report in its earlier drafts. The report has much to commend it and deserves a careful read by anyone interested in Somalia. The strength of the report from my optic is the call for avoiding an overly-zealous U.S. counter-terrorist policy in the region, urging reform of TFG structures so that they become more inclusive, a focus on decentralized development initiatives, urging Ethiopia not to send troops back into Somalia, engaging Middle Eastern partners on the Somali issue and the recommendations dealing with Somali piracy. The report contains several conclusions and recommendations with which I am not in agreement.

1. The report begins with the premise that the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is doomed to fail. While the history of Somali governments since 1991 gives credence to that assumption, and the TFG is admittedly very weak, I am not convinced that it is destined to fail. The fact that the TFG under President Ahmed’s leadership has lasted more than a year has surprised many experts on Somalia. More importantly, I would argue that the TFG is stronger today than it was six months ago. This does not ensure that it will succeed, but it is premature to conclude that it will fail.
2. The report also assumes that it is possible to negotiate with elements of the extremist al-Shabaab organization, which by its own admission is now linked to al-Qaeda. The report urges that the TFG should try to draw in leaders of al-Shabaab. At another point, the report says "the United States and its partners can encourage the pragmatic, nationalist and opportunistic elements of the Shabaab to break with their radical partners by adopting a position of neutrality toward all local political groupings..." The report also notes that al-Shabaab is susceptible to realignment under the right conditions. It may be possible to peal away some of the al-Shabaab rank and file, but there is no indication that there are any pragmatic leaders in al-Shabaab today. They seem to have become more radicalized with each passing month. In addition, there has been a significant increase in foreign influence in the organization. Negotiating with al-Shabaab's leadership strikes me as wishful thinking. In any event, the United States should stay out of internal Somali negotiations; leave this up to the Somalis.
3. The report calls for a reorganization of the TFG under a technocratic prime minister and a council of leaders that includes Sheikh Sharif. I see no point in this. The current prime minister is a technocrat. Creating new institutions and shuffling people around will only create confusion at a time when the TFG seems to be gaining some traction. This is no time to restructure the government.
4. Finally, the report suggests the U.S. should consider a U.S. Navy ship visit to Puntland and Somaliland ports. This not only contradicts the report's earlier recommendation that calls for less American involvement in Somalia, but it would raise all kinds of concerns among Somalis about American intentions in the country. This is a very bad idea.

Quoted in IPS story on Somalia

I am quoted in the IPS story "Somalia: U.S. Should Accept Islamist Authority, Report Says" by Charles Fromm and Mohammed A. Salih. Here are the quotes:

However, David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to neighbouring Ethiopia in the 1990s, disagrees that the al-Shabaab leadership will be ready to join any future political arrangement in the country. "I think al-Shabaab has become more radicalised and I don't see any pragmatic leaders in al-Shabaab today. Many in the rank and file maybe pragmatic, the gun-carriers, but they are not the leaders," said Shinn, who also served as U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso in the late 1980s. ... It was hoped that the installation of Sharif Ahmed, the former head of the Union of Islamic Courts, as president in January 2009 would attract a sufficient number of Islamist leaders to subdue or at least fragment al-Shabaab's forces. But Shinn says the TFG has become "marginally stronger" in recent months. "She [Bruton] seems to begin with the assumption that the TFG is doomed to fail. I am not convinced that it will fail," said Shinn, who was a member of the Advisory Committee to the report. "The fact the TFG under President Ahmed has now existed for more than a year has already surprised many so-called Somali experts. It's just wrong to make the assumption that it's going to fail."

One year anniversary for Somali president

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed celebrates one year as president of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as of January 2010. The Somali service of the Voice of America asked me on January 28, 2010, to comment on this anniversary and whether his stewardship has been a success or failure. I noted that many observers were suggesting only six months ago that the TFG under President Ahmed would not be in existence by the end of 2009. He is still standing, and the TFG seems to be in a somewhat stronger position today than it was just a few months ago. In my view, the biggest mistake the TFG made in its first nine months was to spend so much time traveling around the region and the world seeking sources of funding. This was time that President Ahmed and senior TFG officials should have been on the ground in Somalia developing credibility with the Somali people. In the process, the TFG did not obtain much funding and lost a lot of valuable time. The TFG seems to have learned this lesson in recent months and has been devoting more time to resolving issues in Somalia. For this, it deserves a lot of credit. Image: "Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, President of the Somali Republic, addresses the general debate of the sixty-fourth session of the General Assembly. 25/Sep/2009. United Nations, New York. UN Photo/Marco Castro." Flickr Creative Commons-licensed content.

Quotes in IPS story on Somalia

I'm quoted in Zach Rosenberg's and Jim Lobe's IPS story "President Calls for More Aid in U.S. Visit." Here are the quotes:

While some observers here and at the U.N. were increasingly concerned as recently as three months ago that the TFG was on the verge of collapse, they are expressing more confidence that Sharif's government can hold on, even if it lacks the power to decisively defeat the insurgent groups. "It's a waiting game now," said David Shinn, a Horn of Africa expert at George Washington University who served as ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999. "Today, I think the TFG has a pretty good chance of outwaiting Al-Shabaab." ...Sporadic cruise-missile attacks by U.S. forces against suspected al Qaeda and Al-Shabaab leaders during Ethiopia's two-year occupation of Somalia are believed to have contributed to sympathy for the rebels and growing anti-U.S. sentiment in the country in part due to the fact that civilians were also killed injured. Reaction to the last month's attack, however, appeared to be more muted, according to Shinn. "There doesn't seem to have been much blowback in Somalia, perhaps because (Nabhan) was a Kenyan from Yemen," noted Shinn, who added that the attack's precision eliminated collateral damage.

U.S. showing greater support for Somalia

I am featured extensively in Joe DeCapua's story "Analyst says US Showing Greater Support for Somalia" for Voice of America. Here's the beginning:

Secretary of State Clinton met Thursday with Somali President Sharif Sheik Ahmed, expressing support for his embattled Transitional Federal Government, the TFG. The TFG is fighting Islamist militias, who control more of the country than the government does. The ongoing conflict has created one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and millions in need of food aid and other assistance. David Shinn, adjunct professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and a former ambassador to Ethiopia, considers the meeting significant. "It's the highest level meeting that any American official has ever given to President Ahmed. So that's important. It clearly underscores the interest that the United States has in reaching some sort of satisfactory resolution to the conflict in Somalia," he says. He says the amount of US moral and material support for the TFG "is greater than on any previous occasion in recent years."

You can read the story and listen to the audio through this link.

Policy differences between Bush and Obama administrations toward Somalia

The VOA Somali service asked me to comment yesterday on the policy differences towards Somalia between the Bush and Obama administrations. I responded that the Bush administration focused primarily on countering terrorism and providing humanitarian assistance through UN and non-governmental organizations. While the Obama administration continues to deal with these challenges, it has rearranged priorities and made a greater effort to strengthen the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of President Ahmed, who assumed power about the same time that President Obama took office. The focus is now on political support for the TFG while continuing humanitarian assistance and not ignoring counter terrorism.

Alhurra interview tomorrow

For Arabic-speaking readers, I will be interviewed live by Alhurra TV tomorrow at 2 p.m. for its Al Youm program. The live stream link should be this. The topic will be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's seven-nation trip to Africa and her meeting with Somalia's transitional government leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.

Q & A from McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief on Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Africa

Below is the transcript of my Q&A with Shashank Bengali, McClatchy Nairobi bureau chief, on July 30, 2009, which resulted in the article I mentioned in this post. UPDATE 8/4: Bengali has posted on the story on his blog Somewhere in Africa. SB: What’s the main message the Obama administration and Clinton are trying to send with this trip? Amb. Shinn: The main purpose is to underscore, following the President’s visit to Ghana earlier in July that the Obama administration is interested in strengthening relations with sub-Saharan Africa. A continuing subtext will be, as the President said before the Ghanaian Parliament, that Africa’s future is up to Africans. The administration is placing more responsibility on Africans themselves for resolving their problems and improving economic development. Having said that, I believe the Secretary’s visit will produce some “good cop” rhetoric to offset the “tough cop” remarks of the President. SB: Some activists have criticized the Obama administration for not making Africa a top priority, citing a lack of engagement on Somalia, Congo and other trouble spots. Are those criticisms founded? Will Clinton’s tour address those concerns? Amb Shinn: First, we need a reality check. Africa has never been a top priority of any American administration. After four years of the Obama administration I believe that Africa will have been given more attention than has been the case with any previous American administration. But it will still not reach a top foreign policy priority. Europe, Asia and Latin America are all economically more important. Europe has close cultural and historical ties. Latin America is geographically closer. Even the Middle East and South Asia are strategically more important. It is necessary to keep Africa in perspective. Africa is becoming more important. About 20 percent of America’s imported oil comes from the African continent. Is it any surprise that Secretary Clinton is visiting Nigeria and Angola, two major oil exporters to the United States? Some 12 percent of the American population has African origins and the father of the American President was, of course, a Kenyan. There may be an added focus on this connection between the United States and Africa. I would argue that the Obama administration, which has only been in office for six months, has been exceedingly active in two of Africa’s major conflicts—Sudan and Somalia. I have not seen much activity on the Congo, but believe this will soon change. Finally, by definition activists criticize. If they didn’t, they would no longer be activists. SB: What’s the significance of Clinton’s meeting with Somali President Sheik Sharif Ahmed? [Pictured below, BBC] Won’t it merely underline Sharif’s ties to the West, which his opponents already criticize? Amb. Shinn: The most vocal opponents of President Ahmed are the extremist al-Shabaab and a few allied organizations. The United States and most of the rest of the world has no interest in catering to their concerns. The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Congress and virtually the entire international community support the Somali Transitional Federal Government led by President Ahmed. I don’t believe there is any apprehension about alienating his extremist opponents. You can expect that Secretary Clinton will strongly support President Ahmed. SB: Do you anticipate any major headlines coming out of the trip? Amb. Shinn: This is an interesting question. Most probably there will be some headlines. I have the impression that the Obama administration wants to change the approach to food security in Africa. Candidate Obama talked about a “green revolution” in Africa during the presidential campaign. The U.S. secretary of agriculture will accompany the secretary of state to Kenya. There could be a major initiative announced on food security and support for African agriculture. On a bilateral level, there may be a resuscitation of the binational commission with South Africa. This existed during the presidency of Bill Clinton but disappeared under President Bush. I suspect either a binational commission or something similar will be revived. Secretary Clinton is a personality in her own right. Most of the “headlines” may be of the human interest and anecdotal variety. Actually, I hope this is not the case. This trip should emphasize policy and substance. SB: What is one country that you think Clinton should visit, but isn’t? Amb. Shinn: There are actually three candidates, but First Lady Hillary Clinton visited two of them — Senegal and Tanzania — in 1997. I can understand why she chose different countries, except for South Africa, on this itinerary. That leaves one major omission in my view — Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa and a close ally of the United States. Although Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Ethiopia in 2007, this would be a good occasion to underscore the importance the United States attaches to Ethiopian civil society, human rights and a good electoral process in 2010. In addition, Secretary Clinton could express appreciation to Ethiopia for support on regional conflicts and countering extremism.

TFG must prove it has support of most Somalis

In an interview today with the Voice of America's Somali service, I commented that the recent violence in Mogadishu is a continuation of long-standing efforts by various groups to seize power from the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) now headed by Sheikh Sharif. Most of the opposition comes from the extremist al-Shabaab organization and several allied groups that want to replace the TFG. The United States continues to support for the TFG, which explains why the State Department issued a brief statement on 11 May that condemned the 9-10 May attacks on the TFG and urged support for the Djibouti process. The United States also called on all governments to cease support for the "spoilers" who are attempting to undermine the peace process and the TFG. The spoilers are clearly al-Shabab and their allies. I acknowledged that al-Shabab, which receives much of its funding from non-Somali sources and has a small number of foreign jihadis supporting it, might be able to topple the TFG. Even if it does overturn the TFG, however, I doubted that it would ever gain the support of most of the Somali people who would eventually become alienated by al-Shabab's extremist policies. The African Union forces from Uganda and Burundi still perform a useful function of keeping the Mogadishu port and airport out of the hands of al-Shabab and guarding the headquarters of the TFG presidency. Many Somalis oppose all foreign forces in the country, however, and I doubted that increasing the number of AU troops would strengthen the position of the TFG. In the final analysis, the TFG must prove that it has the support of most Somalis and that it can extend its writ beyond the small amount of territory that it now controls. Image: "Mogadishu has seen some of the fiercest fighting in years in recent days." Source: BBC.

Somalia's new president may be good news for kidnapped Canadian journalist

I spoke with Richard Cuthbertson of the Calgary Herald about Alberta native, Amanda Lindhout, a journalist who was kidnapped in Somalia in August 2008. Cuthbertson's story focuses on the ways that Lindhout's status might be at "a crossroads with the exceedingly fluid political situation in Somalia." Here is the background on the situation that I provided.

"The moderate government will almost be wholly dependent on the international community for assistance, both humanitarian assistance and any development aid that might start going in there," says David Shinn, a former U. S. ambassador to Ethiopia and now an expert on the Horn of Africa at George Washington University in Washington, D. C. ... "The entrepreneurial Somalis, as opposed to the ideological al-Shabab, they're not interested in making a political point or in harming the person,"Shinn says. "All they want is money. If the person were to die on them . . . they wouldn't get any money, and then they'd really be unhappy."

You can view the entire article here. Image: Free Amanda Lindhout.

Mention in AllAfrica.com

Reporting on recent coverage of Somalia, Brian Kennedy of AllAfrica.com's Washington DC office mentions my interview with Jim Lobe for his article, "US Advised to Back Somalia Reconciliation Efforts." Brian's roundup is accessible here.

Pres. Obama's approach to East Africa

I spoke with Inter Press Service's Jim Lobe for his article "US Advised to Back Somalia Reconciliation Efforts," which argues that President Obama "is being urged to pursue a much more flexible policy toward the East African nation than his predecessor and let Somalis, including Islamist leaders who were targeted by the invasion, sort things out for themselves." Here are the passages with my quotes:

"There's a real opportunity for a positive breakthrough," according to David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia who teaches at George Washington University here. "The chances for this happening are perhaps only fifty-fifty, but, in the Somali context, a fifty-fifty chance of achieving a positive breakthrough is brilliant." ...Indeed, with the Ethiopians gone, latent differences within the Shabaab over clan and regional allegiances, as well as ideological divides over links to al Qaeda and other foreign groups, are likely to come to the surface, according to Shinn. "The key now is how much support Sheikh Sharif really has in the country," he said. "That will probably determine the ability of him and whoever his prime minister will be to create a really viable government of national unity, and, if they do that, I see an opportunity to peel away support from the Shabaab." "Much of that support is there because they pay well, they have weapons, and they are pretty well organized, but there is no particular ideological commitment among the rank and file, and if they see there's a new potential winner, and particularly one who can pay the bills, they will very seriously consider switching sides or becoming neutral or just going home," he added. In this context, the new Obama administration should support Sharif's efforts to reach out to individuals and groups that were stigmatized by the Bush administration as terrorists, according to both [Ken] Menkhaus and Shinn. "Let the Somalis talk with whomever they want to talk with," said Shinn. "Don't try to discourage them; if they can work these things out and create a broader base, that's in the long-term U.S. interest."

Read the entire article, which appears on antiwar.com, here.

Reuters interview on Sheikh Sharif Ahmed

I spoke with Reuters about Somalia's new president Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. The piece, which is titled "New Somali president faces a difficult task," is accessible here via the Die Welt website. Here are my four quotes:

"To the extent that any Somali can reunite the country under the existing situation, his choice is a good one. The challenges remain enormous and clan politics will not go away," said David Shinn, a Horn of Africa expert and former U.S. envoy to the region. ...Shinn said al Shabaab had internal rifts -- which Ahmed's aides hope will now widen -- and that many young fighters were opportunists who could be persuaded to switch sides. ..."A broad-based unity government could isolate al-Shabaab," said Shinn. "The question is whether Sheikh Sharif can create a broad based government." ...And Shinn said getting support from wealthy Arab nations may be crucial to the government’s success.

Image: "New Somali president Sheikh Sharif Ahmed faces a difficult task." Source: Die Welt.

Generally favorable reaction to Sheik Sharif Ahmed, Somalia's new president

In an interview with VOA's Joe De Capua, I discussed responses to Sheik Sharif Ahmed's election as the new Somali president, which has elicited generally positive reactions. As I told De Capua:

It shows that the Djibouti peace process is alive and well and it is an indication that at least the possibility exists that Sheik Sharif and those who support him and the Djibouti process can in fact create a government of national unity. I don’t think there was any prospect of this until this development.

Read the entire article and download the MP3 audio here. Image: AFP, via BBC. Link.