Analysis of the Interirm Juba Administration Agreement

This blog previously ran a couple analyses of the Interim Juba Administration Agreement.  Mohamud M. Uluso published a highly negative analysis on 3 October 2013 in Pambazuka News titled "Somalia: Understanding the Jubba Agreement."

Does Kenya Have an Exit Plan from Somalia?

Pambazuka News published on 31 July 2013 a brief commentary by Abdullahi Boru Halakhe titled "Kenya Needs a Comprehensive Exit Plan from Somalia."  Halakhe argues that the only beneficiary of the current situation is al-Shabaab. 

More on Jubaland

Jubaland continues to stir conflict between Kenya and the government of the Somali Federal Government of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.  Writing for Bloomberg in an article on 15 July 2013 titled "Kenyan Forces Will Remain in Somalia until Country Stabilizes," David Malingha Doya reported that Hasan Sheikh earlier this month asked Kenyan forces to leave the Jubaland area, accusing them of violating their mandate by supporting one of the factions seeking to control the region.  The Kenyan Foreign Ministry responded that Kenya's security along the border with Somalia is linked to peace and stability there and Kenya's military will not leave Somalia until it is stable and secure.

Frederick Nzwili also covered the Jubaland story for The Christian Science Monitor in a 8 July 2013 story titled "Is Kenya Birthing a New Country Named Jubaland?"  The International Crisis Group published on 21 May 2013 a brief backgrounder titled "Jubaland in Jeopardy: The Uneasy Path to State-building in Somalia." 

Tension between Somalia and Kenya over Jubaland

Kenya's The Standard ran a story on 12 July 2013 by Malkhadir Muhumed titled "Somalia Hostility Threatens Peace Efforts."  The focus is the situation in Jubaland.  It includes one of my comments.

Critical Analysis of Kenya and Ras Kamboni Militia in Jubaland

Pambazuka News published on 4 July 2013 a piece titled "Somalia: Raskamboni Militia Challenges US, UN Credibility" by Mohamud M. Uluso.  It is highly critical of the role of the Ras Kamboni militia and Kenyan forces in Jubaland.

Developments in Jubaland

The American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project published on 10 June 2013 an analysis titled "Challenges to America's Counterterrorism Strategy in Somalia" on the impact of developments in Jubaland on the situation generally in Somalia.  The authors are Breuk Bass and Katherine Zimmerman.

The analysis concludes that while recent advances against al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, have received international praise and established relative stability throughout much of Somalia, the current situation in Kismayo may threaten any new gains.  The potential for the outbreak of inter-clan fighting between the four declared presidents of Jubaland threatens the peace throughout the country.   

More on Jubaland

During a recent visit to Kenya, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud was interviewed by the Daily Nation.  The interview, which focused on Jubaland, appeared in an article titled "Accord Key To End Jubaland Stalemate, Says Somali Leader." 

In a lengthy analysis, Daahir Sheikh discussed the Jubaland issue in a piece titled "Somalia: Why Jubbaland Deadlock Will Define Future Somalia."  He concluded there is still time for a compromise whereby the Somali Federal Government would have some political influence in Jubaland and a share of Kismayu port revenue in exchange for recognition of Jubaland and the election of Ahmed Madobe.

Somalia: Centralism, Federalism and Jubaland

The creation of the State of Jubaland within the Federal Republic of Somalia has resulted in Somali analysis, sometimes heated, pro and con.  See the negative posting below for 16 May by Muhamud M. Uluso on the subject.  Abdighani Hirad offered his positive views on 17 May 2013 in a piece titled "Jubaland State of Somalia: A Model State to Somalia." 

So long as this debate remains civil and peaceful and is undertaken by Somalis, who must live with the results, it is a good thing.