Somalia, U.S. policy and the famine

Aljazeera English Fault Lines program produced a generally balanced half hour program on the situation in Somalia. Titled “Crisis in the Horn of Africa,” it is both critical of U.S. policy while, at the same time, allowing U.S. officials, past and present, to explain U.S. policy.

Kenyan military moves into Somalia

Aljazeera English asked me to comment 16 October on the move into southern Somalia by Kenyan military forces following three separate attacks on foreigners inside Kenya by persons who escaped with hostages to al-Shabaab held territory in Somalia.

I replied that the attack seems to have been coordinated with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces although the Kenyan military clearly provided most of the firepower. The big question is how many Kenyans went into Somalia, what is their objective and how long they plan to stay.

Somalis oppose all foreign forces — Kenyans, Ethiopians and those with al-Shabaab. The longer the Kenyans remain in Somalia, the greater will be the animosity against them by average Somalis.

Kenyan forces do not have the capacity to occupy all of the territory held by al-Shabaab. They might have limited objectives along the border and perhaps intend to disrupt the ability of al-Shabaab to operate the port of Kismayu.

I have no knowledge of any U.S. role in the operation but would note that the United States routinely shares intelligence with Kenyans and has in recent years trained Kenyan counterterrorism forces.

See the video below (my quotes start about half a minute into the clip):

Al-Shabaab pushed out of Mogadishu

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and Al Jazeera English asked me to comment Aug. 6 on al-Shabaab's retreat from Mogadishu.

I responded that this is the first time since al-Shabaab took control of most of Mogadishu that it had been completely forced out of the capital.

Al-Shabaab has been losing ground for months to the African Union (AMISOM) force in Mogadishu supplemented by forces from the Somali Transitional Government (TFG). But while al-Shabaab is no longer in the capital, it still controls most of south/central Somalia.

At some point, unless al-Shabaab forces continue to weaken, they will try to return to Mogadishu. This is an opportunity for the TFG but it may not be able to take advantage of the new situation.

The implications of this development are significant for the 100,000 or more Somalis seeking emergency food aid who recently moved into the AMISOM/TFG controlled part of Mogadishu from areas controlled by al-Shabaab. Until several days ago, there was fighting in part of Mogadishu, making it difficult for international relief agencies and Somali non-governmental organizations to feed these internally displaced persons.

With the departure of al-Shabaab, it should be much easier to care for the needs of these Somalis. On the other hand, the removal of al-Shabaab from Mogadishu will not make it any easier to provide food to famine victims in those areas of south and central Somalia still controlled by al-Shabaab. This is where the need is greatest and al-Shabaab continues to impose severe restrictions on the ability of international organizations to operate in territory it controls.

It remains to be seen if this major setback will cause long-term damage for al-Shabaab. There have been fissures among the organization’s leaders for a long time. Al-Shabaab’s mishandling of the drought and famine has exacerbated those divisions. The withdrawal from the capital of Somalia is another blow that may result in even more serious fracturing of the leadership.

"East Africa al-Qaeda chief killed in Somalia"

Al Jazeera English asked me to comment on 11 June, 2011, on the death in Mogadishu of Fazul Abdullah Muhammad, Al-Qaeda’s representative in East Africa for the past 10 years.

I explained that together with two other al-Qaeda operatives in East Africa, Fazul was wanted by the United States for planning the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Ethiopian forces killed the first operative, Sudanese national Abu Talha al-Sudani, during fighting in Somalia in 2007.

American special forces killed the second, Kenyan national Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan during a commando raid south of Mogadishu in 2009.

Now Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces have killed Comoro Islands national Fazul in Mogadishu, apparently after he took a wrong turn and drove into a TFG roadblock in the capital city. Fazul has narrowly escaped capture on several previous occasions.

Image: Wikipedia, source: FBI.

This is a major defeat for al-Qaeda in East Africa, although al-Qaeda’s most recent significant successful attack in the region dates back to the destruction in 2002 of the Israeli-owned hotel outside Mombasa, Kenya. Al-Qaeda in East Africa has been on the run ever since, and now its leader is dead.

The fact that Fazul died in Mogadishu, presumably protected by al-Shabaab, underscores the links between al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab. It is less clear what impact his death will have on the operations of al-Shabaab. To the extent that al-Qaeda is providing tangible support to al-Shabaab, it could put additional pressure on the Somali organization.

Here is the link for the Al Jazeera English story, which was also linked on Yahoo's Atlantic Wire.

Here are the quotes:

David Shinn, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said Mohammed has been "the leader of Al-Qaeda in East Africa for the last 10 years or so".

"The US has been trying to track him down together with [his] two colleagues for more than 10 years. The two colleagues were killed earlier: one by Ethiopian troops inside Somalia in 2007, the other by US special forces in south Mogadishu in 2009," Shinn told Al Jazeera.

"He was the last of three and he was the big one."

...George Washington University's David Shinn said "the fact that [Mohammed] was killed in Mogadishu implies that there is perhaps an even closer connection between al-Shabab and al-Qaeda than we are aware of".

"We know there are close links but this would suggest that there may be material support going on at the present time," Shinn said.

While al-Qaeda has been marginalised in East Africa for lack of major success since the 2001 bombing of a hotel in Kenya, al-Shabab has made much progress on its own inside Somalia, he warned.

Interview on the Rageh Omaar Report (Al Jazeera English) "From Minneapolis to Mogadishu"

I first appear about 4 minutes and 25 seconds into the clip.

Analysis of Somalia's al-Shabaab organization

Abdi Aynte, recently with the Voice of America Somali service and soon to join Al Jazeera in Doha, authored a solid analysis of the Somali jihadist organization, al-Shabaab that calls for an Islamic caliphate and now controls about half of Somalia. He published an earlier version of the paper in the March 2010 issue of the Horn of Africa Journal. You can access it here.

Aynte concluded that al-Shabaab evolved from a little known extremist group to a global jihadist offshoot with links to al Qaeda. It cleverly exploited the irredentist Islamist movement of Somalia to provoke Ethiopia to attack so that it could activate its ultimate jihadist agenda, marginalize its moderate allies in the Union of Islamic Courts and expand the territory under its control.

While al-Shabaab successfully brought all Somali clans into its leadership, it isolated itself from most Somalis by becoming closely tied to al-Qaeda and adopting an extremist agenda.

What the EPRDF landslide victory means for Ethiopia

Barry Malone of Reuters Ethiopia, who quoted me in two of his recent stories on the Ethiopian elections, followed up with another question. In light of what appeared to be an imminent landslide victory for the EPRDF, Malone wondered, "What does it mean for the future of Ethiopia?"

Here's my response (sent on May 24), some of which appears in Malone's story, "Ethiopia's Meles on course for landslide election win":

I have not yet heard the results, but assuming a large EPRDF victory I would say the central issue for the future of Ethiopia is how the government over the next five years will allow for more political competition. Prime Minister Meles, in a May 20 interview with Al-Jazeera, stated without qualification that he will retire at the end of this term. He added that the old generation of the EPRDF will also retire. This will open the doors for competition both within the EPRDF and among its political opponents. It is essential that both supporters and opponents of the EPRDF take advantage of this situation in a constructive way to ensure that democracy makes serious progress in Ethiopia. If that happens, it could be the EPRDF's most important legacy. If it fails, it may relegate the EPRDF to the dust bin of history.

The quote also appears in a Reuters blog post by David Clarke, titled "Thousands celebrate Ethiopia election landslide win."

Southern Sudan’s candidate for president pulls out of election

Al Jazeera asked me to comment yesterday on the announcement that Yasir Arman, the candidate for president of Sudan from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) had pulled out of the election on the grounds that it would not be free and fair. I responded that this is a setback for the democratic process but acknowledged that the election would be far from ideal in the best of circumstances. The April election will be Sudan's first real election since 1986. In addition to organizational issues, it will probably be impossible to organize balloting in Darfur and perhaps even some locations in southern Sudan. Nevertheless, abandonment of the race by the SPLM candidate virtually assures that President Bashir (pictured) will win on the first ballot. While there are several other presidential candidates, even collectively they are not likely to win more than 50 percent of the vote, which would force a second round of balloting for the top two candidates. Image: President Bashir in 2008. Credit: Ammar Abd Rabbo. Creative Commons licensed Flickr content. The SPLM and some Darfur groups called earlier for the postponement of the election. This poses a dilemma as the important vote by southerners on secession from Sudan is scheduled to take place in January 2011. If national elections do not take place in April, Bashir has said there will be no southern vote on secession in January 2011. The national elections may still go forward without an SPLM candidate. If that happens, the referendum could still take place on schedule. It is clear, however, that the SPLM is only interested in the vote for secession and not the outcome of the April national elections.

My interview on the Riz Khan show (Al Jazeera)

My comments start about 5:45 into the clip. Here is part two:

Al Jazeera interview on Somalia

Al Jazeera Arabic-language TV asked me to comment on the confirmation from the State Department earlier in the day that the United States is providing weapons to the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia. Under the circumstances, I thought this was the right response and added that several European countries are training TFG security forces. This too is appropriate. I do not agree with those who are calling for the sending of international forces to Somalia to prop up the TFG. The Somali government has to stand on its own feet. It is true that the groups opposing the TFG -- al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam -- are receiving funding and weapons from foreign sources and being aided by several hundred foreign jihadis. The international community should also do what it can to end the supply of foreign money, arms, and jihadis reaching these organizations. When Al Jazeera suggested that U.S. support for the TFG will result in a negative response from the Muslim world, I thought that would not be the case except for organization like al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam. The United Nations, African Union, and Arab League have all called for international support of the TFG. Earlier this week, the secretary general of the Organization of the Islamic Conference even called on the international community to intervene immediately to support the TFG. The U.S. action is in keeping with the views of the world's major Islamic organizations.

The significance of Sen. Kerry's visit to Sudan - Al Jazeera Interview

I appeared on the Al Jazeera English this evening concerning Senator John Kerry's visit to Sudan. I noted that the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is a close political ally of President Barack Obama and that this visit to Sudan comes on the heals of one by General J. Scott Gration, the president's special envoy to Sudan. The two visits appear to represent a high-level reassessment of U.S. relations with Sudan. The focus of Senator Kerry's visit will probably be on the continuing crisis in Darfur, implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the civil war between northern and southern Sudan, human rights concerns, and Sudan's cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism. Al Jazeera has not posted the video yet. If it does, I will link it here.

Interview with Al Jazeera on Somali piracy

I did a live interview with Al Jazeera English TV on April 11 on Somali piracy. The news commentator was only interested in my previous suggestion that international naval vessels begin sinking pirate mother ships when there is incontrovertible intelligence as to their involvement in piracy. The commentator disagreed with this suggestion and stated that it would unnecessarily escalate the problem. I responded that naval forces should only take this action when the mother ships are in international waters and the evidence is overwhelming that they are aiding and abetting piracy. This would send a powerful message to pirate criminal gangs. Furthermore, the international community should engage in a longer-term strategy of helping to establish a widely-accepted national government in Somalia, which is the only way to bring an end to piracy. In addition, the international community must work to stop illegal fishing off Somali shores so that those Somalis who are willing to return to fishing as a way of life can do so. Some pirates are making so much money, however, that they will be disinclined to return to fishing. The commentator was not persuaded by my approach to the problem. He did not have a solution of his own to offer. The video doesn't seem to be posted online, but I will link it here if it goes up.

Al Jazeera English interview on ICC and President Bashir

I interviewed live today with Al Jazeera English on the International Criminal Court's decision to serve an arrest warrant to President Bashir of Sudan. I made the following points:

The United States has supported the position by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to serve an arrest warrant on President Bashir of Sudan for committing crimes against humanity. At the same time, it puts the United States in a strange position since it never signed the ICC agreement. Serving of the warrant may well worsen the situation in Darfur and even impact adversely implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan. Interestingly, the coalition of evangelicals, liberals, human rights activists, and others who have supported this action against Bashir recently experienced a dissenting view from one of their own. The Reverend Franklin Graham wrote an oped in the March 3 issue of The New York Times that called on the international community to put peace in Sudan ahead of justice. Graham argued that Bashir's arrest could threaten the south's elections and referendum and hurl the country back into civil war.

Hopefully, Al Jazeera will post the video clip on its YouTube channel. If and when it does so, I will embed the video here. Image: Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashirat the 20th session of The New Partnership for Africa's Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Jan. 31, 2009. Source: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released, via Wikipedia.

Weighing in on endorsement of Somalia's new prime minister

On Saturday, Somalia's parliament endorsed the appointment of Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as prime minister of a new unity government. I spoke to Reuters about this new development. Here's an excerpt from the article that includes my analysis: "I am more optimistic about the future of Somalia than I have been in a number of years," Professor David Shinn, an Africa expert at George Washington University, told Reuters. "The selection of a PM from the large Darod clan is a wise choice to balance President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's Hawiye clan connection," he said, adding that Sharmarke's distinguished family and diaspora connections would also be advantages. UPDATE: Al Jazeera English also ran a story based on the the Reuters piece.

Al-Shabaab's threat to seize power in Somalia

On Friday, I spoke with Al-Jazeera English newshour in London about the al-Shabaab militia organization that is threatening to seize power in Somalia. I commented that al-Shabaab has the most military power of any single organization in Somalia today. At the same time, it is not united and is structured according to clan and regional factions. It might be able to seize power if Somalis believe that it will establish security in the country but will face strong opposition from Somalis, who tend to be moderate in their Islam, if it tries to institute extremist practices.