Elections in Kenya

In the run-up to the 4 March and 11 April 2013 elections in Kenya, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) published two background reports.  The first one by Joel Barkan, senior associate in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, appeared in January 2013 and is titled "Electoral Violence in Kenya."  The second is dated 28 February 2013 by Joshua Kurlantzick, fellow for Southeast Asia at CFR.  His contribution is titled "Democracy's Decline and the Case of Kenya."  Both are worth a look.

China in Africa: Health Sector

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in New York addressed on 25 July 2012 the question of China's health assistance to Africa in its Development Channel. CFR identifies both the positive and negative side of the assistance.

Click here to read the commentary.

Chinese Aid and Investment in Africa

As part of its "Development Channel" series, the Council on Foreign Relations in New York posted a discussion on 18 July 2012 dealing with the question of China's aid and investment in Africa. The piece draws on the views of others who have studied this subject and quotes from our book: China and Africa: A Century of Engagement.

Click here to read the commentary.

Al-Shabaab, the international community and famine in Somalia

I call to your attention an excellent interview with Rashid Abdi, Nairobi-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, published by the Council on Foreign Relations on 10 August, 2011.

Abdi emphasizes the factions in al-Shabaab and the negative impact they are having on providing food to needy Somalis. While it was slow to deal with the problem, I think Abdi is excessively critical of the response to the drought by the international community and its earlier failure to invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley.

How does the international community deliver food to areas where it is excluded by al-Shabaab and how does it invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley that is controlled by al-Shabaab?

Updates on Sudan

On Oct. 4, the Council on Foreign Relations published two reports on Sudan that help explain developments in this fast-moving situation.

One is titled “Sudan’s Fractured Internal Politics” by Toni Johnson and Stephanie Hanson. The second is by Payton L. Knopf and titled “Intensifying Diplomacy on Sudan.”

Council on Foreign Relations report on Somalia

The Council on Foreign Relations released a report on March 10 titled "Somalia: A New Approach" by Bronwyn E. Bruton. I was one of the people on the advisory committee who offered comments on the report in its earlier drafts. The report has much to commend it and deserves a careful read by anyone interested in Somalia. The strength of the report from my optic is the call for avoiding an overly-zealous U.S. counter-terrorist policy in the region, urging reform of TFG structures so that they become more inclusive, a focus on decentralized development initiatives, urging Ethiopia not to send troops back into Somalia, engaging Middle Eastern partners on the Somali issue and the recommendations dealing with Somali piracy. The report contains several conclusions and recommendations with which I am not in agreement.

1. The report begins with the premise that the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is doomed to fail. While the history of Somali governments since 1991 gives credence to that assumption, and the TFG is admittedly very weak, I am not convinced that it is destined to fail. The fact that the TFG under President Ahmed’s leadership has lasted more than a year has surprised many experts on Somalia. More importantly, I would argue that the TFG is stronger today than it was six months ago. This does not ensure that it will succeed, but it is premature to conclude that it will fail.
2. The report also assumes that it is possible to negotiate with elements of the extremist al-Shabaab organization, which by its own admission is now linked to al-Qaeda. The report urges that the TFG should try to draw in leaders of al-Shabaab. At another point, the report says "the United States and its partners can encourage the pragmatic, nationalist and opportunistic elements of the Shabaab to break with their radical partners by adopting a position of neutrality toward all local political groupings..." The report also notes that al-Shabaab is susceptible to realignment under the right conditions. It may be possible to peal away some of the al-Shabaab rank and file, but there is no indication that there are any pragmatic leaders in al-Shabaab today. They seem to have become more radicalized with each passing month. In addition, there has been a significant increase in foreign influence in the organization. Negotiating with al-Shabaab's leadership strikes me as wishful thinking. In any event, the United States should stay out of internal Somali negotiations; leave this up to the Somalis.
3. The report calls for a reorganization of the TFG under a technocratic prime minister and a council of leaders that includes Sheikh Sharif. I see no point in this. The current prime minister is a technocrat. Creating new institutions and shuffling people around will only create confusion at a time when the TFG seems to be gaining some traction. This is no time to restructure the government.
4. Finally, the report suggests the U.S. should consider a U.S. Navy ship visit to Puntland and Somaliland ports. This not only contradicts the report's earlier recommendation that calls for less American involvement in Somalia, but it would raise all kinds of concerns among Somalis about American intentions in the country. This is a very bad idea.

Summary of remarks this morning at CFR

This morning, I participated in a panel on "The Future of U.S.-Ethiopia Relations" at the Council on Foreign Relations. Amb. Herman Cohen, professional lecturer at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies chaired the session. My co-panelists were Ephraim Isaac, chair of the board of the Coalition of Ethiopian Elders for Peace and Reconciliation, and my colleague Brook Hailu Beshah, assistant professional lecturer in international affairs at GW (see his blog here). A summary of my remarks at the panel may be accessed here.