Crisis Group Priorities for African Union in 2018

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 17 January 2018 a paper titled "Seven Priorities for the African Union in 2019." The paper is also available in French.

It described the seven priorities as important institutional and financial reforms of the AU; limiting any disruption to the AU's work caused by friction between Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic; helping resolve or avert election-related crises in the DRC, Cameroon, Mali and Zimbabwe; and managing conflicts in the Central African Republic, Somalia and South Sudan. As for the United States, while the Trump administration has largely ignored Africa, the ICG commented that the administration's counterterrorism operations risk further complicating crises in Somalia and the Sahel absent more comprehensive support for peace efforts.

Renewal of Conflict Imminent in South Sudan

The International Crisis Group warned on 29 October 2014 that government of South Sudan and the Sudan People's  Liberation Army-In Opposition are making plans to resume major military conflict at the end of the rainy season.

Ethiopia, the Ogaden and Peace

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 August 2013 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: Prospects for Peace in Ogaden."  It reports the peace talks between the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the government of Ethiopia that stalled in October 2012 may restart.  The ICG comments that the Ethiopian government's commitment to the talks is important but undermined by a parallel strategy of piecemeal deals with disgruntled ONLF members.  For its part, the ONLF's leadership lacks a unified vision of the talks' outcome, shifting along a spectrum of options, between reconciliation with the state in return for significant autonomy and outright secession. 

Conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 18 June 2013 an extensive report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile."  It covers all aspects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The ICG concludes that Blue Nile State has become a major battleground for the ideological competition between two opposed models: Khartoum's attempts at unifying and centralizing the country with a dominant Arab-Islamic identity, which South Sudan's separation is paradoxically reviving, versus the rebel SPLM/A's and now Sudan Revolutionary Front's agenda for a more inclusive and devolved Sudan.  Attempts to resolve Blue Nile's past and current conflicts reflect Sudan's existential dilemma as to how best it should define itself.

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition

Flickr/Steve Rhodes

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report on 28 March 2013 titled "Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition."

It examines Eritrea's vulnerabilities, maps out six possible scenarios for a post-Isaias Eritrea and identifies the main risks and opportunities the country and the region would face.

The report urges a broad coalition of international actors take precautionary moves, including immediate and decisive efforts to promote dialogue on avoidance of internal power struggles and mediation of a peaceful transition. 

Sudan-South Sudan Agreements

Comfort Ero, Africa program director for the International Crisis Group (ICG) participated in a six minute podcast called "Sudan and South Sudan: Squaring Off at the Border" on 22 March 2013.  It dealt with agreements between Sudan and South Sudan that still need to be implemented. 

Report on Conflict in Sudan's South Kordofan

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released on 14 February 2013 a detailed report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan."  It points out that the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), which is based in the Nuba Mountains, is well armed and has an alliance with a Darfur rebel group, the Sudan Revolutionary Front.

ICG concludes that the conflict between the SPLM-N and the Sudan government forces have reached a strategic stalemate.  The SPLM-N has as many as 30,000 soldiers while the number of government troops in South Kordofan is estimated at between 40,000 and 70,000.  ICG states that "neither side is strong enough to win militarily."

ICG and Somali Transition Process

The International Crisis Group (ICG) in a brief commentary on 20 August 2012 titled "Somalia: From Troubled Transition to a Tarnished Transition?" excoriated the ongoing process to establish a replacement government for the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

The ICG said "the current process has been as undemocratic as the one it seeks to replace, with unprecedented levels of political interference, corruption and intimidation." The ICG added that "the extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab is down but not out, and it is evolving, and plots to take advantage of the resulting chaos to regain power." The ICG even criticized the process of selecting elders as some were uneducated and objectionable individuals, some sold seats to the highest bidders and others nominated their own family members.

In my view, it is difficult to be optimistic about this flawed process. The only hope is that the new leadership, many of whom will be familiar faces, has had an epiphany and agrees to work on behalf of most Somalis without resorting to corruption. Until there is a government that is widely respected by most Somalis, it will be impossible to reconstitute an effective national government and probably not possible to end the threat from al-Shabaab.

Click here to read the ICG commentary.

Al-Shabaab, the international community and famine in Somalia

I call to your attention an excellent interview with Rashid Abdi, Nairobi-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, published by the Council on Foreign Relations on 10 August, 2011.

Abdi emphasizes the factions in al-Shabaab and the negative impact they are having on providing food to needy Somalis. While it was slow to deal with the problem, I think Abdi is excessively critical of the response to the drought by the international community and its earlier failure to invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley.

How does the international community deliver food to areas where it is excluded by al-Shabaab and how does it invest in agriculture in the Juba Valley that is controlled by al-Shabaab?

A critical analysis of the future of Northern Sudan

Sudanese president Omar al Bashir in the southern capital of Juba. Flickr/Al Jazeera English. 1/4/2011.

Yesterday, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a negative analysis of the situation in northern Sudan titled “Divisions in Sudan’s ruling party and the threat to the country’s stability.”

It argues that the National Congress Party (NCP) has not addressed the root causes of Sudan’s chronic conflicts and has exacerbated ethnic and regional divisions. The country is deeply divided as it moves forward after the secession on 9 July 2011 of South Sudan.

The NCP has mobilized its security apparatus to suppress any revolts, has decided to end the debate about Sudan’s diversity and identity, remains committed to an Arab-Islamic identity for all Sudanese and is ready to sub-divide key states to accommodate political fiefdoms.

The ICG writes that power is increasingly centralized in a small clique around President Bashir. Deeply divided and more concerned with staying in power, the leadership more often reacts to events rather than implements a carefully conceived national program. The public dispute between Nafie Ali Nafie and Ali Osman Taha is representative of these divisions.

The ICG urges that the NCP accept a free and unhindered national dialogue to create a national stabilization program that includes defined principles for establishing an inclusive constitutional arrangement.