Chatham House Commentary on South Sudan

London-based Chatham House recently published two brief commentaries on the situation in South Sudan.  The first dated 18 December 2013 is titled "South Sudan Divisions: Fractious Politics in a Fragile State" by Ahmed Soliman.  The second dated 19 December 2013 is titled "The Dangers of Tribalism in South Sudan" by Hannah Bryce. 

China-Africa Remarks at Chatham House

Chatham House in London posted a summary of my 29 June 2012 remarks on China-Africa relations. The summary covers all aspects of the relationship and includes the question and answer session.

Click here to read the summary.

Upcoming Event in London on China and Africa

As part of the launch of our new book titled China and Africa: A Century of Engagement, I will make a presentation at Chatham House in London on Friday, June 29, from 10:00 to 11:00 a.m. Click here for details.

Regional economic cooperation in the Horn of Africa

Chatham House in London issued a report in November titled “Hostage to Conflict: Prospects for Building Regional Economic Cooperation in the Horn of Africa” by Sally Healy. It focuses on the eight members of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD).

The report emphasizes there are strong political and structural obstacles to regional economic integration.

On the other hand, informal trade relations offer the opportunity for integration. Healy urges that more attention be given to the development of transport corridors to sea ports, the management of shared water resources, common management of pastoral rangelands, and improved energy security.

She recommends more support for IGAD and less attention to a state-centric approach to regional integration.

"Black Gold for Blue Gold? Sudan’s Oil, Ethiopia’s Water and Regional Integration"

A June 2011 Chatham House paper (PDF) by Harry Verhoeven makes the case for regional integration of Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia drawing on their respective oil and water resources.

Oil drums in Ethiopia. Flickr/user Carsten ten Brink.

I am a firm believer in the necessity of economic integration in the Horn of Africa in order to prevent and/or mitigate conflict. This paper contributes to that discussion.

In the case of Nile Basin water sharing or alternations to the 1959 treaty that now governs allocation of Nile water, it will be impossible to make any progress unless Egypt is brought into the dialogue.

U.S. policy in Sudan

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson spelled out U.S. policy towards Sudan in a 7 March 2011 statement made at Chatham House in London. You can read the entire statement here (PDF).

Sudan and its western neighbors

The Jan. 9 referendum in Sudan has tended to focus attention on internal developments in Sudan, but it also has important implications for its neighbors.

Mark Naftalin provides a good analysis in a Chatham House publication of the possible impact on Chad and the Central African Republic.

He emphasizes the fragility of both border regions and the fact that conflict along these borders has frequently been stirred up on the opposite side.

His brief analysis (PDF) also looks at the implications for the Lord’s Resistance Army and past support by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army for rebel groups in Darfur.

Somaliland: Is democracy failing?

Somaliland has been a beacon of democracy in East Africa and the Horn since 1991. Recent developments, however, are beginning to raise serious questions about its future among persons such as myself who have admired its success in building democracy. The constitutionally-mandated term for the current president and vice president ended in May 2008. Because Somaliland was not ready to hold elections at that time, the upper house of Parliament voted to extend the presidential term to May 2009. A number of developments conspired to delay the elections even further. The future is cloudy. Michael Walls (LinkedIn), co-coordinator of the international election observation for the Somaliland presidential election and lecturer at University College London, published a thoughtful analysis titled "Somaliland: Democracy Treatened" in September 2009. The piece (link to PDF) is about the increasingly serious situation in Somaliland. Walls notes that while the constitutional dilemma is a fundamental component of the impasse, widespread doubt over the technical ability of the National Electoral Commission to organize a free and fair election is also a key problem. Walls concludes that if the government and opposition parties do not compromise and reach agreement soon, Somaliland faces a real possibility of "instability and a more authoritarian governance system." This would be a serious setback to both the residents of Somaliland and to the region generally.

Recommended monograph on engagement of Asian national oil companies in Nigeria and Angola

Chatham House released a thorough report on the topic in August 2009. The authors are Alex Vines, Lillian Wong, Markus Weimer, and Indira Campos. The report is titled "Thirst for African Oil: Asian National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola." Here is part of the preface: "Much has been written about China in Africa over recent years and an increasing literature is emerging about India. This Chatham House report is different in that it focused on rivalries among Asians for African oil in two countries. The report complements research already completed on Asian national oil companies (ANOCs) by Keun-Wook Paik, Valérie Marcel, Glada Lahn and John Mitchell of Chatham House’s Energy, Environment and Development Programme. This research is designed to mark the first stage of a wider project, looking at the impact of Asian oil efforts in Africa and the response of host governments and non-state actors, especially civil society. The research on Nigeria (Part 1 of this report) was mostly conducted by Lillian Wong and draws largely on Nigerian government official documents (not in the public domain), library research and over sixty confidential interviews with a broad range of senior Nigerian government officials, including cabinet ministers past and present, presidential advisers, members of the National Assembly, oil industry personnel, domestic and foreign, Nigerian civil society and local energy correspondents, and diplomatic missions in Abuja, both bilateral and multilateral."

New publication on China-Africa relations

For those of you who have an interest in China-Africa relations, I call to your attention a June 2009 Chatham House publication by Kerry Brown and Zhang Chun titled "China in Africa - Preparing for the Next Forum for China Africa Cooperation." The next Forum on China-Africa Cooperation will take place later this year in Egypt. You can access the document at this link.