The International Crisis Group posted on 2 April 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "How the Iran War Is Reshaping the Region" with Alan Boswell and Hafsa Halawa, independent political analyst.
The war in Iran is already resulting in shortages of fuel, energy, and electricity in the Red Sea region. Over the longer term, it will likely cause higher inflation and food shortages due to diminished access to imported food and fertilizer, 40 percent of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The fertilizer issue is exacerbated because it does not have a long shelf life.
Large diasporas in the Gulf states from countries like Ethiopia may start returning home as jobs shut down. Gulf state investment in the Horn of Africa, which had been growing rapidly, is likely to fall significantly.
The war may force Gulf states to refocus their national security strategies as they assess freedom of navigation and support for factions or governments in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Saudi support for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) may decline because of Iran's ties with the SAF. The UAE is likely to continue its support for Ethiopia.
The war is likely to exacerbate existing tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Egypt and Turkey will need to reassess their strategies in the region. The war comes on top of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, which already exacerbated Gulf state security relationships.
Saudi Arabia has shifted oil exports to the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. If the Houthis decide to attack international shipping in the Red Sea, this could end the shipment of oil to Asia by closing the Bab el-Mandeb choke point. It would still be possible to ship oil from Yanbu north through the Suez Canal to Europe.
The Iran war makes clear that the regional security situation is now completely interconnected.
