The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 November 2026 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Eritrean Escalation: Motives, Scenarios, and Regional Implications."
This paper examines the drivers and strategic dimensions of the Ethiopian-Eritrean escalation. It explores potential scenarios and assesses their implications for both countries and the wider region.
It argues that Ethiopia's pursuit of access to the sea conflicts with Eritrea's concerns over sovereignty and territorial integrity, making the question of maritime access a central driver of the ongoing crisis.
