AMISOM's Hard-Earned Lessons in Somalia

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 May 2018 an interview with Simon Mulongo, the Deputy Special Representative of the Commission Chairperson to Somalia.

This surprisingly frank interview looks at the challenges and lessons learned from the AMISOM mission in Somalia, which Mulongo describes as probably the deadliest peacekeeping mission currently underway in the world today.

ISIS Strugges for Influence in Somalia

World Politics Review published on 11 January 2017 an article titled "As ISIS Struggles for Influence in Somalia, al-Shabab Remains the Main Threat" by Joshua Meservey.

The author concludes that while there are small numbers of ISIS sympathizers in Somalia, they are preoccupied with dodging al-Shabaab death squads. Winning many Somalis' acquiescence or loyalty is beyond the Islamic State's capacity at the moment.

IGAD Issues Report on Transnational Threat of Al-Shabaab

The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) issued in mid-August a report dated March 2016 titled "Al-Shabaab as a Transnational Security Threat." It concludes that al-Shabaab has aspired to become a regional threat with activities in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, and Tanzania. Its military wing includes two transnational units: the Jaysh Ayman directed against Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and another, Jaysh al-Usra, dedicated to operations against Ethiopia.

Islamic State Releases Video on Training Camp in Somalia

The Long War Journal published on 25 April 2016 a piece titled "Islamic State Highlights 'First Camp of the Caliphate in Somalia'" by Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss.

It includes pictures from a video released by the Islamic State purporting to show just over a dozen fighters at a training camp in Somalia. The Islamic State is trying to develop a following in Somalia separate from the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab terrorist organization.

The Resilience of Al-Shabaab

The CTC Sentinel published on 22 April 2016 an analysis titled "The Resilience of Al-Shabaab" by Christopher Anzalone.

The author concluded that al-Shabaab has proven remarkably resilient thanks to pragmatic decision-making and skilled tactical maneuvering. The group's senior leadership continues to maintain overall unity and to ward off a strong challenge from Islamic State sympathizers.

Somalia's al-Shabaab Sticks with al-Qaeda

The Long War Journal published on 8 December 2015 an article titled "American Jihadist Reportedly Flees al Qaeda's Crackdown in Somalia" by Thomas Joscelyn, senior editor for the Long War Journal.

The focus of the article is competition between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for the allegiance of al-Shabaab whose leadership has opted to remain loyal to al-Qaeda. 

Al-Shabaab's Last Stand?

Foreign Affairs published on 11 September 2014 a commentary titled "Al-Shabab's Last Stand?" by Paul Hidalgo, an analyst on the Horn of Africa.  The article concludes that the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane provides a unique opportunity for allied forces to press the advantage against al-Shabaab and potentially deliver a decisive blow.  In the long run, however, it may increase the extremist threat in East Africa.

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Al-Shabaab Under New Leadership

The Washington-based Institute for Defense Analysis published in its 11 September 2014 edition of Africa Watch an article titled "Al-Shabaab under New Leadership" by Ashley Neese Bybee.   It concludes that the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane will not cause al-Shabaab to crumble. 

The War against Al-Shabaab

International Affairs published in July 2014 an article titled "After Westgate: Opportunities and Challenges in the War against Al-Shabaab" by Paul D. Williams, George Washington University.

Williams concludes that the Somali government must now deliver on its promises to provide the residents of settlements recovered from al-Shabaab with basic services, administration, and protection.  For its part, al-Shabaab is entering the beginning of its political end game.  With power now consolidated in its extremist fringe, its continued terror tactics are unlikely to win it more supporters within Somalia. 

Two Articles about Al-Shabaab

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published in February 2014 a special issue of CTC Sentinel that includes two articles on al-Shabaab.

The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College.  He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past.  In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia.  In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia.  Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence. 

The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences.  He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia.  Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries.