China-India Competition in the Indian Ocean

 The Stimson Center's South Asian Voices published on 31 May 2023 an analysis titled "India's Evolving Maritime Strategy" by Allah Nawaz.

India has moved from a policy of "using" Indian Ocean waters to "securing" them.  China's rise and increased interference in India's perceived sphere of influence pushed New Delhi to modify its strategy in the Indian Ocean.  In response to China's "string of pearls" theory, India is pursuing a "necklace of diamonds" approach.

China-India Competition in the Indian Ocean

 Modern Diplomacy posted on 8 August 2020 an analysis titled "Countering Chinese String of Pearls, India's 'Double Fish Hook' Strategy" by Pankaj Jha, Jindal Global University.  

India is increasingly concerned over China's naval presence in the Indian Ocean, especially following the establishment of Beijing's first military base in Djibouti.  Indian strategists have long argued China is pursuing an encirclement strategy that includes a "string of pearls" in the Indian Ocean, i.e. a number of military facilities across the northern part of the Indian Ocean.

India's has been working to counter this strategy by increasing its own naval support facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the eastern Indian Ocean and improving security relations with Africa's western Indian Ocean island countries.  It is also increasing cooperation with the United States, which has the strongest navy in the Indian Ocean, and with France, which has overseas departments on Reunion and Mayotte.  The author's new name for this approach is the "double fish hook" strategy.    

China's New Military Presence in Africa

The Diplomat published on 8 December 2015 an article titled "Is China's Maritime Silk Road a Military Strategy?" by Anthony Kleven.  Focusing on China's new military facility in Djibouti, he concludes that China may be looking to militarize ports in the Indian Ocean, making a worrisome prospect for the United States and its allies. 

The Council on Foreign Relations blog published on 9 December 2015 an article titled "China's New Military Presence in Africa" by Allen Grane.  He concluded that the new Chinese military facility in Djibouti is an opportunity to begin working with the Chinese in Africa and building a platform for future U.S.-China cooperation. 

A threat or an opportunity?  Much depends on what China establishes in Djibouti and elsewhere and then what they do with the facilities.

More on Chinese Military Access in Djibouti

Breaking Defense published on 12 May 2015 commentary titled "China Seeks Djibouti Access; Who's a Hegemon Now?" by Colin Clark. 

The author emphasizes it is still unclear whether China is seeking to establish a military base or a port where civilian and military vessels can replenish food and fuel.  If it is a military base, it will be instructive how China characterizes the facility in light of its long-standing opposition to  military bases outside China.

The Diplomat published on 13 May 2015 a piece on this topic titled "A Naval Base in the Horn of Africa for China?" by Ankit Panda.

Defense News published on 16 May 2015 a commentary titled "Analyst: China's Djibouti Ambitions a Sign of the Future" by Joe Gould.  

China's Silk Road to Where?

The Diplomat published on 17 February 2015 an analysis titled "China's 'One Belt, One Road' To Where?" by Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a member of the Philippine Association for China Studies.

Acknowledging that details are still sketchy, the author argues that the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road have strategic, political, and security implications that participating countries should consider.  He urged China to address the persistent notion that the Silk Road is too China-centric and that other participating states will reap only marginal benefits. 

Chinese Naval Strategy and the "String of Pearls" Debate

The National Defense University in Washington issued a major report in October 2014 on "Chinese Overseas Basing Requirements in the 21st Century" by Christopher D. Yung, Ross Rustici, Scott Devary, and Jenny Lin.  It deals with the so-called Chinese "String of Pearls" strategy in the Indian Ocean and has rekindled an old debate.  This discussion is relevant to future Chinese naval interests along the East African coast.  One of the authors responded to recent criticism of the report in a piece published in The Diplomat on 22 January 2015 titled "Burying China's 'String of Pearls'."

The original report argues that China's expanding global interests will generate increased demands for out-of-area naval operations and predicts that China is likely to establish at least one "dual-use" civilian/military base, probably at Karachi, to provide logistics support for increased People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operations.  The report also concluded that China is unlikely to attempt to dominate the Indian Ocean region militarily and suggested the "String of Pearls" model has long outlived its usefulness as a strategic concept.