China's Global Basing Ambitions

 The RAND Corporation has just published a research report titled "China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States" by Cristina L. Garafola, Stephen Watts, and Kristin J. Leuschner.  

RAND looked at global basing prospects for China and organized the prospects by high to low desirability and high to low feasibility.  It included no African locations in the high desirability category.  It put Djibouti and Equatorial Guinea in the medium desirability, high feasibility category; Angola, Kenya, Morocco, and Tanzania in the medium desirability, medium feasibility category; and South Africa in the medium desirability, low feasibility category.  It placed Egypt, Libya, Republic of Congo, and Sudan in the low desirability, high feasibility category; Algeria, Cameroon, Guinea, Mauritania, Mozambique, and Nigeria in the low desirability, medium feasibility category; and Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Liberia, Madagascar, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo in the low desirability, low feasibility category.  

All of these countries have a coastline.  Seychelles would appear to be a significant omission from this list.  

The Evolving China-Africa Security Relationship

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University invited me to make remarks at a conference focused on the upcoming FOCAC summit to be held in South Africa in December 2015.  The conference took place in Cape Town on 26-27 August 2015.  My remarks covered all issues related to "The Evolving China-Africa Security Relationship."

China-Africa: Implications for US National Security

The Arroyo Center at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California, just published a book by Lloyd Thrall titled "China's Expanding African Relations: Implications for U.S. National Security."  It is available online free of charge. 

It explores China's rapidly expanding involvement in Africa in order to better inform U.S. thinking about its relations both with China and with African countries.  The study pays particular attention to geostrategic competition in Africa, potential security threats driving Chinese engagement with African states and assesses potential medium-term changes in Sino-African relations across these three dimensions.  It then assesses how China's interests and behavior on the continent affect the interests of the United States.  The report recommends that the United States view China's sometimes unfavorable activities in Africa in context and continue to seek opportunities to engage Beijing on mutual interests, such as defeating violent extremists, improving African infrastructure to promote trade and development, and encouraging economic and political stability on the continent.

China's Navy and the Anti-Piracy Operation in the Gulf of Aden

The Naval War College Review published in its Winter 2015 edition an analysis titled "China's Blue Soft Power: Antipiracy, Engagement, and Image Enhancement" by Andrew Erickson, professor at the Naval War College in Newport, and Austin Strange, PhD student at Harvard. 

This is an excellent study of the origins, operations, and future of the People's Liberation Army Navy anti-piracy deployment in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. 

China Charged with High Level Illegal Ivory Smuggling

The London-based non-governmental organization Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) published a report on 6 November 2014 titled "Vanishing Point - Criminality, Corruption and the Devastation of Tanzania's Elephants."  The 36 page report notes that although China is the primary destination for ivory, countries such as Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia are also involved.

The report alleged that a visit to Dar es Salaam in December 2013 by a PLA Navy task force resulted in a major surge in business for illegal ivory traders.  The EIA added that a visit to Tanzania in March 2013 by a Chinese delegation led by President Xi Jinping created a boom in illegal ivory sales and caused local prices to double.  EIA charged that leaders of Tanzania's ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party protect the ivory traffickers.

The Washington Post did an article on this issue on 6 November 2014 titled "Chinese Officials Accused of Smuggling Ivory During State Visit to Tanzania" by Simon Denyer.  Both Tanzanian and Chinese officials denied the allegations in the EIA report in an article published on 7 November 2014 by the Voice of America titled "Tanzania Denies Chinese Officials Smuggled Ivory" by Megan Duzor.

China Sends Submarine to Gulf of Aden: A First

A Defence Web article dated 1 October 2014 reports that a Chinese submarine is on its way to the Gulf of Aden to join the anti-piracy patrol.  Although China has been participating in the anti-piracy operation since 2008, this is the first time a submarine has joined the task force. 

China and the Far Seas

The Diplomat published on 10 January 2014 an analysis titled "China and the Far Seas" by Andrew Erickson and Austin Strange.  The authors explain how China since it deployed the PLA Navy late in 2008 into the Gulf of Aden to combat Somali piracy has parlayed that activity into the Mediterranean and Western Indian Ocean. 

China and Africa in 2023

The Center for China-US Cooperation in the Joseph Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver hosted a one day conference on "China in Africa" on 1 February 2013.  The organizers invited me to give the keynote luncheon address.  I took the occasion to predict the way the China-Africa relationship will look in 2023 in a speech titled China and Africa: The Next Decade.