Blunting Jihadi Attacks on Somalia's Upcoming Elections

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 31 December 2020 a briefing titled "Blunting Al-Shabaab's Impact on Somalia's Elections."

Somali jihadi groups al-Shabaab and the Islamic State are preparing to wreak havoc on parliamentary and presidential elections in Somalia in January and February.  The ICG brief concludes that securing the vote will be a major challenge.  

Background on January 2019 Al-Shabaab Attack in Nairobi

The CTC Sentinel published in July 2019 an article titled "East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Evolution of the Jihadi Threat" by Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra, both with the Sahan think tank in Nairobi.

The authors point out that the attack on 15 January 2019 of an office complex in Nairobi, Kenya, by al-Shabaab that killed 21 people and injured at least 28 involved Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent. They conclude that al-Shabaab's longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group's evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.

Somalia: The Suicide Bombers of Al-Shabaab

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published in February 2018 a study titled "Targeted Terror: The Suicide Bombers of Al-Shabaab" by Jason Warner and Ellen Chapin.

This is a comprehensive account on the emergence, evolution, and efficacy of al-Shabaab's suicide bombers. Al-Shabaab has deployed at least 216 suicide bombers who carried out 155 suicide attacks, killing at least 595 and as many as 2,218 people. The most frequent targets are personnel and symbols of the Somali state and of the international community such as the AMISOM mission and United Nations.

Mogadishu Suicide Bombing

The BBC asked me to comment 15 October 2017 on the horrific truck bombing in Mogadishu, Somalia that occurred the previous day. While al-Shabaab has not yet taken responsibility, it almost certainly was behind the bombing, which may have killed more innocent Somalis than any previous al-Shabaab attack. You can access the BBC clip here.

The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington published in February 2014 an analysis titled "The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab: A Strategy of Choice or Necessity?" by Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank located in Nairobi, Kenya. 

In this excellent study, Bryden notes that al-Shabaab's leadership was once relatively heterogeneous, including nationalist and politically pragmatic figures such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow.  There were differences within al-Shabaab over the value of a relationship with al-Qaeda, the wisdom of attacks on civilians, and the role of foreign fighters in the organization.  Following a purge of the nationalists, what now remains of al-Shabaab is the more extremist fringe: an al-Qaeda franchise in Somalia, imbued with the "takfiri" ethos that legitimizes the killing of other Muslims, and recommitment to the cause of international jihad and the restoration of an Islamic caliphate. 

Panel Discussion of Somalia and Al-Shabaab

China Radio International on 14 October 2013 ran an hour-long, wide-ranging panel discussion about recent developments in Somalia, the Westgate Mall bombing in Kenya, and al-Shabaab.  The panelists were He Wenping, African studies expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Joyce Njogu, TV producer with the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation; and myself. 

Suicide Bombing in Mogadishu

The Guardian ran an article on 4 April 2012 on the most recent suicide bombing in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab quickly took credit for the bombing. Clar Ni Chonghaile wrote the piece, which you can read here.

I am quoted in the article: "These attacks are disruptive and may set back efforts to develop and rebuild Somalia. They will not, however, build support for al-Shabaab. On the contrary, they alienate most Somalis."

Suicide bomber kills Somali government officials

A suicide car bomb attack killed at least 31 people and injured another 45 at a hotel in Beledweyne, about 250 miles northwest of Mogadishu and not far from the Ethiopian border. Among those killed were the Somali Transitional Federal Government's (TFG) National Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden and the TFG's former ambassador to Ethiopia, Abdulkarim Ibrahim Lakanyo. A small car loaded with explosives drove into vehicles leaving the Medina Hotel and exploded. The extremist al-Shabaab organization, which has ties to al-Qaeda and is dedicated to overthrowing the TFG and taking power itself, took responsibility for the attack. Reuters quoted al-Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage as saying "One of our Mujahideen has carried out that holy attack and the so-called security minister and his men were killed." The Associated Press quoted Rage as stating "We killed the national security minister and the former ambassador to Ethiopia." Suicide bombings and political assassinations are being used with greater frequency by al-Shabaab in their asymmetrical effort to topple the TFG. While these tactics have short-term tactical advantages, they also increasingly alienate most Somalis whether they accept or oppose the TFG. Al-Shabaab may be sowing the seeds of its own destruction, especially as it relies increasingly on foreign jihadi fighters who are not appreciated by most Somalis. Image: Somalia's Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden. BBC.

Response to the assassination of Said Tahlil Ahmed, director of the 'Horn Afrik' radio station

The cowardly attack (see Al Jazeera's story here) early in February on Said Tahlil Ahmed, director of Horn Afrik radio station in Mogadishu, is another setback for peace in Somalia and the establishment of a governmental administration that makes a serious effort to unite Somalis for building a better future. I am convinced that the vast majority of Somalis strongly oppose political assassinations, suicide bombings, and use of land mines by a small minority that is trying to achieve power by any means available to it. The long list of attacks in Somalia on independent journalists is especially reprehensible. The message being conveyed is that political extremists can only have an impact by engaging in cowardly acts. I don't believe Somalis will rally to this cause. Image: "Journalist Said Tahlil Ahmed was killed by gunmen in Somalia, according to a colleague who was with him." Source: CNN.