The Kremlin's Long Game in Africa

 The Hudson Institute published on 4 July 2026 an analysis titled "The Kremlin's Long Game in Africa" by Joshua Meservey.

The analysis concludes that the Kremlin seeks to extract outsized benefits from Africa with the limited means it can deploy.  The nature of this engagement will change only when there is meaningful political transformation in Russia.

US Tweaks Security Strategy in Africa

 Business Insider Africa published on 3 July 2026 an article titled "U.S. Military Outlines New Africa Strategy Built on Intelligence, Drones, and Local Forces" by Solomon Ekanem.

Speaking after the 2026 Africa Chiefs of Defense Conference (ACHOD) in Luanda, Angola, from 30 June to 2 July, General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command, said the United States is shifting its strategy in Africa to a focus on intelligence sharing, affordable drones, and African led operations instead of relying on large US troop deployments.

For background on ACHOD, see "AFRICOM Hosts Key Defense Conference to Discuss Security Opportunities."

Israel's Rationale for Recognizing Somaliland

 The National Institute Press published on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "What Israel Sees in Somaliland" by Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council.

The commentary concludes that Israel's recognition of Somaliland provides it with a strategic foothold across from Yemen, greater proximity to the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, a deeper stake in Red Sea security, and the potential to expand its influence in Africa.  

China's Distant-Water Fishing in Indian Ocean Has Multiple Motives

 Mizzima, a non-profit foundation that supports social change and development in Myanmar, published on 28 January 2026 a commentary titled "Weaponising the Trawl: China's Maritime Militia, Distant-Water Fishing, and the Strategic Contest in the Indian Ocean."

Chinese fishing fleets maintain a massive presence in the Indian Ocean region.  What appears on the surface as fishing is, in practice, a grey-zone strategy, blending economic exploitation, intelligence gathering, and coercive presence to reshape the maritime realities without triggering open conflict.

In addition, see Sweekriti Pathak's "Fishing and Force: China's Dark Fleets and Maritime Militias" dated 29 January 2026 published by India's Observer Research Foundation.  

Ukraine's Efforts to Counter Russia in Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 20 November 2025 an analysis titled "A Shadow War in the Global South: Are Kyiv's Operations in Africa Paying Off?" by Sam Bowden.  

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has conducted intelligence operations against the Kremlin across Africa and the Middle East.  Kyiv opened 8 new embassies in Africa after the Russian invasion in 2022, raising its total to 19.  But Ukraine's efforts continue to lag well behind Russia's engagement in Africa, and its outreach to the continent has been limited at best.  

Sudan's Relations with US Deteriorate; Improve with Israel

 Aljazeera published on 13 February 2022 an article titled "Sudan's Burhan Dismisses Sanctions Threats, Lauds Ties with Israel."

Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan praised intelligence-sharing cooperation with Israel while dismissing the threat of US sanctions.  

Panel Discussion of Somalia and Al-Shabaab

China Radio International on 14 October 2013 ran an hour-long, wide-ranging panel discussion about recent developments in Somalia, the Westgate Mall bombing in Kenya, and al-Shabaab.  The panelists were He Wenping, African studies expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Joyce Njogu, TV producer with the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation; and myself. 

US Expands Intelligence Operations in Africa

The Washington Post ran two articles on June 14, 2012, by Craig Whitlock on growing US intelligence activity in Africa. Click here to read the first one titled "U.S. Expands Secret Intelligence Operations in Africa." Click here to read the second one titled "Contractors Run U.S. Spying Missions in Africa."

German Radio Deutsche Welle asked me to comment June 14 on the first article.

I replied that most of the information in the article has been reported before. The U.S. military base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti has been widely covered. The drone operations in Victoria, Seychelles, and Arba Minch, Ethiopia, have been reported previously. There has been considerable discussion of the small U.S. military support operation in Uganda, South Sudan and the Central African Republic to track down Joseph Kony of the Lord's Resistance Army. There have also been a few public references to the assignment of U.S. commandos at Manda Bay, Kenya.

What was new to me were the surveillance operations out of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, and Nouakchott, Mauritania. The latter ended in 2008, although they may resume.

The only permanent base among these operations is the one at Djibouti. The others will continue only to the extent there is a continuing terrorist threat. To the best of my knowledge, the United States has no effort focused on Boko Haram in Nigeria and it is questionable if the Nigerian government would even request U.S. assistance.

African governments have obviously approved these activities, including drone intelligence operations. It is not clear that the African street approves of them. A recent study by the Pew Research Center (see item below) included reaction from the street in Egypt and Tunisia to U.S. drone operations and it was negative.