Friday, December 22, 2023

Muddled Analysis of Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping by Professor at China's National Defense University

 Newsweek published on 22 December 2023 an article titled "Yemen's Houthis Doing China 'A Big Favor' by Fighting US" by John Feng.

A Chinese professor at the People's Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University recently said Houthi attacks on Red Sea commerce have become "a blockade against the West."  He added this contributes to China's policy of undermining American sea power and promoting global multipolarity.  He concluded that the Houthis have done China a big favor.

Comment:  China has much more to lose than the United States by attacks on shipping transiting the Red Sea as its exports and imports rely far more on this waterway than does American commerce.  Major Chinese shipping companies such as COSCO have already rerouted their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to the transit time and substantially to the cost of shipping between China and Europe.  Nor is there any guarantee that Houthi attacks will avoid vessels with Chinese crew members or those owned by Chinese nationals but flying third country flags.  

In the meantime, the United States has taken the lead in organizing a naval task force for the global good and strengthened its credentials as the primary naval power in the region. It is enhancing cooperation with countries and navies from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.  It is demonstrating that China appears to be interested in protecting only its narrow interests in the region.  If this muddled analysis by the good professor at the PLA National Defense University represents wider thinking in the PLA, the United States has less to fear from China's strategy than it thought.