Somalia Conference 2013 in London

Somalia and the United Kingdom hosted a conference on Somalia in London on 7 May 2013.  The participants released a comprehensive communique at the end of the conference. 

While the conference was another positive step forward, what is important now for the Somali Federal Government is to spend more time building political support and federalism inside Somalia and less time at international conferences and travel to foreign capitals. 

Comment on Somalia-Somaliland Dialogue

Yusuf M. Hasan of the Somaliland Sun asked me to comment on a series of questions dealing with the ongoing dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland.  The Somaliland Sun published the interview on 5 May 2013 under the heading "Somaliland: 'The Ankara Communique Is a Commitment for Continued Dialogue' Amb. Shinn." 

Interview with Somaliland Sun

Mahmud Walaleye of the Somaliland Sun asked me to respond to several questions concerning Somaliland.  The interview appeared in the 3 May 2013 edition under the title "Somaliland: Country Urged to Capitalize on the Flexibility of the UK and Danish Governments."

Foreign Direct Investment in Africa

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published on 25 March 2013 a 10-page summary titled "The Rise of BRICS FDI and Africa."  It has attracted some attention because it states that both Malaysia and South Africa as of the end of 2011 had more cumulative FDI stock in Africa than did China.  In fact, France headed the list with about $58 billion of cumulative FDI stock in Africa, followed by the United States with about $57 billion and the United Kingdom with about $48 billion.

Malaysian Houses of Parliament. Flickr/Wojtek Gurak

There was a sharp drop to Malaysia with about $19 billion in FDI stock, followed by South Africa with $18 billion, China with $16 billion, and India with $14 billion.  South Africa was the leading recipient of Chinese FDI followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Zambia, and Algeria.  Indian FDI in Africa was concentrated in Mauritius in order to take advantage of the latter country's offshore financial facilities and favorable tax conditions.  As a result, the final destinations of India's investments in Africa often went elsewhere.  Some of the FDI coming from other countries also went to Mauritius with the same result.  The relatively large FDI figure for Malaysia is, however, still surprising.

As I have commented before on this blog, the official FDI figure for China in Africa significantly understates the actual amount for a variety of reasons.  It only represents FDI that it is officially reported to the government of China.  Some private Chinese investors do not report FDI flows.  China's official numbers miss FDI that passes through Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands and goes to many countries, including some in Africa.  Chinese FDI statistics do not include investment in the financial sector.  For example, China's $5.5 billion purchase of 20 percent of Standard Bank of South Africa is presumably not reflected in the cumulative figures for FDI to Africa.  China has also made several large investments in companies located in countries outside Africa that have significant holdings in Africa.  These investments would not appear in the cumulative figure for Africa.

This is a murky area.  Nevertheless, I believe it is correct to conclude that as of the end of 2011 China had more cumulative FDI in Africa than either South Africa or Malaysia  but not more than the UK, US, or France. 

Somalia, Somaliland and the United Kingdom

Ahmed M.I. Egal, a financial and business development consultant, wrote a highly critical piece on 12 July 2012 for Pambazuka News titled "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: The Somalia-Somaliland Talks and the British Co-Opted Roadmap." While I believe the commentary is excessively critical of both the United Kingdom and President Silanyo, it is particularly well written and raises some provocative questions.

Click here to read the commentary.

House of Commons Report on South Sudan

British MPs on the International Development Committee of the House of Commons issued on 27 March 2012 a comprehensive report on the prospects for development and peace in South Sudan. The report deals with the humanitarian situation, the Department of International Development's (DFID) program in South Sudan, the role of international donors and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

The report points out that DFID quickly established and scaled up an office in Juba and developed a four-year development and humanitarian program for South Sudan amounting to 360 million pounds. This makes South Sudan one of the largest recipients of UK bilateral aid. The decision by the government of South Sudan to halt production in all of its oil fields has potentially grave economic and humanitarian consequences for the South Sudanese population. The report concludes that the UK and other donors cannot bankroll South Sudan through this austerity period. As a result of the oil crisis, DFID has already re-focussed its development programs away from long-term development towards supporting the most vulnerable people and saving lives.

There have been well-documented difficulties with both World Bank and UN-administered pooled funds in South Sudan. The MPs had reservations about the extent to which DFID should continue to channel bilateral aid through the World Bank in South Sudan.

The MPs also concluded that UNMISS does not currently provide value for money and its resources have not been deployed most effectively. The UK government should press the UN for an urgent review of UNMISS's cost, mandate, assets and operations.

The report concluded that the key focus in the short-term must be, as far as possible, to help secure greater stability in South Sudan and prevent humanitarian needs from escalating significantly.

Click here to read the entire report.

Covert U.S. Attacks in Somalia

The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, a not-for-profit organization based at City University, London, released on 22 February 2012 a report on U.S. military strikes since 2007. Drawing on open source reporting from a variety of organizations, it alleged that there have been as many as 21 U.S. military strikes in Somalia since 2007, most of them aimed at al-Shabaab. Not all of the alleged strikes are well documented. The report is titled the Covert Drone War.

The Bureau released at the same time a longer list of alleged U.S. and United Kingdom military strikes in Somalia dating back to 2001. Most of them are based on journalistic accounts and a few are single sourced. Called Covert Drone War - the Data, this is the most comprehensive account to date of reported strikes inside Somalia by U.S. and UK military forces.

Terrorism and Al-Shabaab in the UK

The Royal United Services Institute in the United Kingdom just released a report titled UK Terrorism Analysis that looks at the threat to the 2012 Summer Olympics in the UK.

It covers a variety of terrorist threats, including the possibility of "lone wolfs" coming from conflict zones in Somalia, Nigeria and Yemen. The report indicates that Britons are thought to make up 25 percent of the 200 or so foreign fighters currently with al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The western Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa

I normally do not post material on the blog that covers the Indian Ocean, but make an exception in the case of the February 2011 study by Frank van Rooyen titled “Africa and the Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean” published by the South African Institute of International Affairs.

The Western Indian Ocean has important implications for the Red Sea and the countries of the Horn and East Africa that border it. Van Rooyen focuses on the role in the Indian Ocean of the major naval powers — United States, China, Russia, France, United Kingdom, India and Japan. He also links the Western Indian Ocean to Africa, including issues in the Horn and East Africa.

You can access the report here (PDF).

"Indian Ocean Shore line - Wilderness SA." Flickr/Donnie Ray.