Whither South Sudan?

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) posted on 7 October 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst" by David Deng, South Sudanese-American human rights lawyer, and Aly Verjee, USIP.

The authors do not predict that failure of the peace process in South Sudan is inevitable nor necessarily imminent. But there are signs the hopeful outcome they desire may not come to pass. They suggest two possible negative scenarios and what mignt be done to ameliorate them.

Sudan and South Sudan: Violence Trajectories

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in March 2019 a study titled "Sudan and South Sudan: Violence Trajectories after Peace Agreements" by Julia Bello-Schunemann, senior researcher at ISS.

Sudan and South Sudan are among the African countries to have experienced the highest number of conflict fatalities between 2011 and 2017. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement didn't result in fundamental changes to Sudan's political order. Instead, it reinforced a pattern of political violence in which Khartoum crushes all political opposition with force. The 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan that called for a unity government to be followed by elections in a winner-takes-all context compounded incentives for political violence.

Progress in South Sudan Peace Process?

African Arguments posted on 30 May 2018 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Why I'm Starting to Think Peace Is Possible" by Simon Marot Touloung, a South Sudanese refugee living in Uganda.

The author argues that it is essential that South Sudanese own the peace process. There are signs this is happening and that gives the author hope.

Envisioning a Stable South Sudan

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington published on 29 May 2018 a series of visions by scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders on strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of disarray to a more stable future.


The series includes the following visions:

--Three Trajectories Facing South Sudan by Luka Kuol.
--Context and the Limits of International Engagement in Realizing Durable Stability in South Sudan by Lauren Hutton.
--Taming the Dominant Gun Class in South Sudan by Majak D'Agoot.
--Durable Stability in South Sudan: What Are the Prerequisites? by Phillip Kasaija Apuuli.
--Security Sector Stabilization: A Prerequisite for Political Stability in South Sudan by Remember Miamingi.
--Confronting the Challenges of South Sudan's Security Sector: A Practitioner Perspective by Kuol Deim Kuol.
--Blurring the Lines: Ethnicity, Governance, and Stability in South Sudan by Lauren Hutton.
--The Rule of Law and the Role of Customary Courts in Stabilizing South Sudan by Godfrey Musila.
--Navigating the Competing Interests of Regional Actors in South Sudan by Luka Kuol.

Is There Any Prospect for Peace in South Sudan?

World Politics Review published on 14 March 2018 a commentary titled "A Resurrected Peace Plan Is the Best Hope for Ending South Sudan's Brutal War" by Andrew Green, a freelance journalist based inn Berlin.

In spite of the optimistic title of the author's commentary, he concludes there is no end in sight for the current negotiations as fighting continues for a fifth year and aid agencies report that 9,000 people are estimated to be losing access to food every day.

South Sudan Peace Talks Lacking Optimism

The Institute for Defense Analyses Africa Watch published on 8 February 2017 a brief commentary titled "Expectations Are Low for the Second Round of South Sudan Peace Talks" by Sarah Graveline.

The author concluded that if the talks do not go the way the South Sudan government wants, there is little to stop it from continuing its military campaign. Similarly, a leading opposition group has stated its intention to continue fighting should the talks fail.

Can South Sudan's Peace Agreement Be Revitalized?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 8 December 2017 an analysis titled "Can South Sudan's Peace Agreement Be Revitalized?" by Meressa K. Dessu, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concludes that "nothing much" should be expected from the efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development to revitalize the South Sudan peace process other than the possible temporary cessation of hostilities.

Building Peace in South Sudan

Search for Common Ground, an international organization committed to conflict transformation, published in November 2017 a report titled "Building a Constituency for Peace in South Sudan" by Katie Smith.

The report concludes that the peacebuilding strategy for South Sudan must move beyond engagement of national political elites to build a constituency for peace focused on stabilizing communities and addressing conflict drivers and triggers at the local level.

South Sudan Refugee Crisis

Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) published on 17 August 2017 an article titled "A War without End: Neighbors Carry the Burden of South Sudan's Fleeing Millions" by Sam Okiror, IRIN contributor based in Kampala.

More than a million South Sudanese refugees have now crossed the border into Uganda in what is the world's fastest-growing refugee crisis. An additional million or more South Sudanese refugees have fled to Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Central African Republic.

Justice in South Sudan

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 1 July 2017 an analysis titled "A Path to Justice in South Sudan" by Kate Almquist Knopf.

The author argues that chapter V institutions on transitional justice, accountability, and reconciliation of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) have a firm legal grounding outside the ARCSS should the African Union wish to pursue them.

South Sudan at Year Six

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 7 July 2017 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Independence: Nothing to Celebrate in 2017" by Merkessa K. Dessu, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concludes that six years after independence, South Sudan's humanitarian crisis is worse than ever, with grave violations of human rights and a lingering brutal civil war.

South Sudan's 6th Anniversary of Independence

The Institute for Defense Analyses Africa Watch published on 12 July 2017 an update titled "South Sudan: 6th Anniversary of Independence Marked by Violence" by Sarah Graveline.

For a second year, South Sudan canceled its 9 July Independence Day celebrations. The author concluded that the likelihood of South Sudan securing a lasting peace appears distant.

Conflict and Famine in South Sudan

The International Crisis Group published on 26 April 2017 a report titled "Instruments of Pain (II): Conflict and Famine in South Sudan."

Some 100,000 South Sudanese are now suffering famine conditions with another 5.5 million at risk. The UN has requested $1.6 billion to address the humanitarian crisis but received pledges so far of only $439 million. This crisis has been caused largely by poor leadership and governance in South Sudan.

Ethiopia's Role in South Sudan

The International Crisis Group published on 30 January 2017 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Must Continue to Help Stabilise South Sudan" by Rashid Abdi, project director for Horn of Africa.

The author noted that Ethiopia has shown strong leadership and a level of direct involvement in peace efforts in Sudan and South Sudan that few countries can match. He argued that Ethiopia should not waiver in its commitment to ensuring a peaceful South Sudan and use the tools at its disposal to support an inclusive and stable government in Juba.