China-US Competition in East Africa's LAPSSET Corridor

 The London School of Economics and Political Science posted on 18 September 2025 a commentary titled "China's LAPSSET Corridor and the US's Stakes in the Horn of Africa" by Tewodros Woldearegay, Lingnan University.  

China is financing and building development projects in the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor designed to create an East African economic zone.  China's engagement threatens to limit long-standing US security interests in the region.  The author argues that the US and its allies need to do a better job of offering economic and security alternatives to counter China's initiatives.  

Economist Intelligence Unit Predicts New Direction in Africa-China Relations

 The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has just released a thoughtful report titled "A New Horizon for Africa-China Relations."

It concludes that the new themes in the Africa-China relationship suggest a more balanced approach to Chinese engagement in Africa during the decade ahead.  EIU argues that China intends to expand its engagement with Africa over the coming decade through increasingly diversified trade; additional investment in target sectors and trade-facilitating infrastructure; projects that address Africa's environmental, social and governance issues; and a more hands-on and interventionist approach to regional diplomacy.

EIU says China's food security issues and enormous food import requirements could drive large trade and investment flows in African agricultural products and production.  African-located manufacturing ventures will increasingly serve as an export base for industries that connect with Chinese value chains and target Chinese markets.

Citing the hosting by China in June of a Horn of Africa Peace Conference in Addis Ababa, EIU foresees an increase in political engagement in the subregion but without a fundamental shift in Chinese foreign policy away from its long-standing principle of non-interference in the affairs of other countries.

The trajectory of China-Africa ties will remain more focused on deepening still relatively shallow trade and investment links, rather than more active diplomatic mediation or more formal security arrangements.  

EIU offers a cautionary note.  The Chinese economy is slowing, and this will directly impact Africa in the short to medium term.

Comment:  I would add three other cautionary notes.  While China-Africa trade has resumed and reached a new high in 2021, it has since 2013 become increasingly unbalanced in favor of China with China maintaining a significant trade surplus with Africa.  This is good for China, but not so good for Africa, and will likely lead to growing concerns in those African countries experiencing large and persistent trade deficits with China.

EIU suggests Africa may play a more important role in exporting agricultural products to meet China's increasing need.  This may occur over the long term, but Africa remains a net importer of food products and is not well positioned over the short and medium term to fulfill this need.

EIU also suggests Africa may benefit from the shifting of manufacturing capacity from China to Africa.  So far, however, most of the manufacturing that has left China has not gone to Africa but to other lower cost destinations in Southeast and South Asia.   

Another Account of US Fixation on China's Rise in Africa

 Quartz Africa published on 14 April 2022 a commentary titled "Why Is the US Fixated on China's Rise in Africa" by Kang-Chun Cheng.

This is one of many recent accounts that argues the United States is obsessed with China's growing influence in Africa.  It then draws on selective data such as Chinese loans, which rarely have a Chinese investment component, for financing infrastructure projects to demonstrate that China is far more engaged in Africa than is the case for the United States.  

Comment:  While there is an element of truth to this analysis, it overlooks the fact that US foreign aid to Africa, nearly all of which is grant assistance, is far higher than that coming from China.  The US is also more engaged in the African security sector with the exception of personnel contributions to UN peacekeeping operations in Africa.  Public opinion polling shows that China and the US are equally well perceived on the continent.  US soft power influence comes mainly from the private sector and continues to out pace China in areas such as music, sports, TV, and movies.  The US and China have similar amounts of foreign direct investment stock in Africa. The US does need to up its game in Africa, but this is not a situation where the sky is falling. 

African Green Development, China, and the US

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 10 January 2022 an analysis titled "U.S.-China Sustainable Infrastructure Opportunities: Green Partnerships Must Begin in Africa" by Hannah Bases.  

The author argues that the United States has an opportunity to work closely with African nations and China to implement sustainable infrastructure projects.  

China and the G7: B3W vs BRI

Panda Paw Dragon Claw published on 29 June 2021 a roundtable discussion titled "Will the G7's B3W Initiative Change the Game of Global Infrastructure Development?" 

It consists of four commentaries, including mine, that look at the G-7's Build Back Better World (B3W) Initiative and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from different perspectives.  

The Diplomat published on 22 June 2021 a commentary titled "B3W: Building an Alternative to the BRI or Falling Into the Same Trap?" by Francesca Ghiretti, King's College London.

The author argues that the BRI has not measured up to its high expectations and suggests this is a lesson the G-7 would do well to learn.