The International Peace Institute published on 20 March 2023 a commentary titled "Wagner Group Poses Fundamental Challenges for the Protection of Civilians by UN Peacekeeping Operations" by Dirk Druet, McGill University.
The Wagner Group has raised serious risks for the safety of UN peacekeeping operations in the Central African Republic and Mali. Countries participating in these UN peacekeeping operations need to consider ways to minimize the challenges posed by the Wagner Group.
World Politics Review published on 31 January 2023 an analysis titled "Wagner Is Only One Piece in Central African Republic's Messy Puzzle" by Vianney Ingasso, investigative reporter for Bangui's Radio Ndeke Luka, Marcel Plichta, doctoral candidate at the University of St. Andrews, and John Lechner, researcher and writer on Central Africa.
This is an analysis of the complex struggle for power in the Central African Republic and the role of the Wagner Group, Russia's mercenary organization. The authors conclude that Wagner's 1200 mercenaries have shifted the military balance of power in the CAR government's favor for the first time in years. Russian advisers wield influence and perhaps reap the financial benefits of mineral extraction but they have not yet translated these gains into substantial foreign policy wins for the Kremlin.
The New York Times published on 24 December 2022 an article titled "Putin Wants Fealty, and He's Found It in Africa" by Roger Cohen.
Some 5,000 Russians, including the mercenary Wagner Group, prop up the autocratic government in the Central African Republic and, according to the article, control everything. In return the Russians benefit from the CAR's diamond wealth.
The Armed Conflict and Event Data Project (ACLED) published on 30 August 2022 a study titled "Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mali" by Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay.
The Russian mercenary Wagner Group has been operating in the Central African Republic since 2018 and in Mali since 2021. Civilian targeting accounts for 52 percent and 71 percent of Wagner Group involvement in the CAR and Mali respectively. In the CAR, Wagner operates mostly independently of the Central African Armed Forces while in Mali it operates mostly alongside state security forces.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 3 December 2021 an analysis titled "Russia's Influence in the Central Africa Republic" by Pauline Bax.
From a military point of view, Russia's mercenary intervention force, the Wagner Group, has served President Touadera well. In the long term, however, the CAR government will have to muster the political will to extend its extremely limited services beyond the capital of Bangui if it is to maintain control over the areas its troops have recaptured from the rebels. The military force is too small to push out all the armed groups and keep them out, and its relations with MINUSCA are too fraught to accomplish much beyond securing the mining zones.
