Mali: French Forces Pushed Out and Russian Forces Struggling

 Foreign Policy published on 10 September 2024 an article titled "How Foreign Intervention Failed Mali" by John A. Lechner, Sergey Eledinov, and Adam Sandor.  

The article explains how first the French and now the Russian mercenary force in Mali failed to defeat Tuareg separatists.

Wagner Group Future in Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 26 July 2023 an analysis titled "Wagner Mutiny Ex Post Facto: What's Next for Russia and Africa?" by Raphael Parens.

The Wagner Group's future in Africa will vary country by country.  It is well established in the Central African Republic, profitable, and likely to survive with or without Russian government support.  If it loses Russian government support, its agenda will become more limited in Mali, Burkina Faso, and especially Sudan.   

Mali Army and Wagner Group Accused of Atrocities

 Human Rights Watch published on 24 July 2023 a statement titled "Mali: New Atrocities by Malian Army, Apparent Wagner Fighters."

Human Rights Watch stated that Malian armed forces and foreign fighters apparently from the Russia-linked Wagner Group have summarily executed and forcibly disappeared several dozen civilians in Mali's central region since December 2022.  

Preparing for the Next Wagner Group in Africa

 World Politics Review published on 20 July 2023 a commentary titled "The West Needs to Prepare for the 'Next Wagner' in Africa" by Christopher Faulkner, U.S. Naval War College, Raphael Parens, Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Marcel Plichta, University of St. Andrews.  

The Wagner model is here to stay, as Moscow will continue to find value in deploying semi-private military companies to high-risk areas far from its borders.  US policy makers need to seriously consider how to deter countries from hiring Kremlin-linked firms.  

Future of Russia's Wagner Group in Mali

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 June 2023 a 50 minute podcast titled "Is This the End? Wagner in Russia, Ukraine and Africa" with Olga Oliker, Jean-Herve Jezequel, and Richard Gowan.  The first 19 minutes of the podcast dealt with the Wagner Group in Russia and the Ukraine and the remainder of the podcast covered the Wagner Group's future in Mali and other African countries.

There are about 1,500 Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali.  The government of Mali called for the departure of MINUSMA, the UN peacekeeping force, by the end of June with a six month period for the UN to remove its troops and equipment from the country.  MINUSMA has been located primarily in urban centers in Mali.  What happens after the UN force departs Mali?  One possibility is that the Russian mercenary force will take over the bases evacuated by MINUSMA.  Additional Wagner Group forces in Russia might redeploy to operations in Africa such as Mali, resulting in greater influence in African internal affairs by Moscow.  This development could also have a major impact on the future of UN peacekeeping in Africa. 

Wagner Group Complicates UN Peacekeeping Operations in Africa

 The International Peace Institute published on 20 March 2023 a commentary titled "Wagner Group Poses Fundamental Challenges for the Protection of Civilians by UN Peacekeeping Operations" by Dirk Druet, McGill University.

The Wagner Group has raised serious risks for the safety of UN peacekeeping operations in the Central African Republic and Mali.  Countries participating in these UN peacekeeping operations need to consider ways to minimize the challenges posed by the Wagner Group.

Russian Mercenary Group Operations in CAR and Mali

 The Armed Conflict and Event Data Project (ACLED) published on 30 August 2022 a study titled "Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mali" by Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay.

The Russian mercenary Wagner Group has been operating in the Central African Republic since 2018 and in Mali since 2021.  Civilian targeting accounts for 52 percent and 71 percent of Wagner Group involvement in the CAR and Mali respectively.  In the CAR, Wagner operates mostly independently of the Central African Armed Forces while in Mali it operates mostly alongside state security forces.

Russian Mercenaries Stage French Atrocities in Mali

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 11 May 2022 a study titled "Massacres, Executions, and Falsified Graves: The Wagner Group's Mounting Humanitarian Cost in Mali" by Catrina Doxsee and Jared Thompson.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group staged evidence in Mali of alleged French atrocities.  In fact, it is the Wagner Group that often conducts indiscriminate killing in the country.  

China's Evolving Role in Mali

 The China-Africa Research Initiative published in August 2020 a study titled "Development, Security, and China's Evolving Role in Mali" by Lina Benabdallah and Daniel Large.

The study explores the links between development and security in the context of conflict to understand the extent to which China's security approach in Africa is adequately conceptualized, successful, or challenged.  It finds that China's development-for-security approach has pronounced limitations when applied in Mali.

China's Growing Security Role in West Africa

The Mercator Institute for China Studies and Konrad-Adenauer -Stiftung published in July 2020 a major study titled "China's Growing Security Role in Africa: Views from West Africa, Implications for Europe" by Tom Bayes.

The report examines the growing role of China in West African security and seeks to understand the nature and scope of  China's role as a security actor now and in the future.  It considers China's substantive impact on West African security dynamics and the views of West African political and military decision makers on China's emergence as a security partner.

China's Strategic Interests in Africa

The Washington-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 January 2019 an article titled "Chinese Hard Power Supports Its Growing Strategic Interests in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

China's growing military footprint in Africa is part of a policy that has at its core the rejuvenation of China as a great power. The author concluded that tension between African citizens and governments is likely to grow as China, in its drive to restore itself as a great power, seeks to expand its influence in Africa's security arena.

Drawing on this piece, Kenya's Daily Nation published on 27 January 2019 an article titled "China in Bid To Extend Africa Trade Success into Military Sphere" by Kevin J. Kelley.

NATO and China in Africa

The Friends of Europe published on 25 October 2016 a commentary titled "NATO and China in Africa" by Brooke Smith-Windsor, NATO Defense College, and Alexander Moens, Simon Fraser University.

The authors conclude that global strategic competition between Western and Chinese values does not preclude NATO and China working towards the same objectives. There are situations in Africa where NATO and China may gain strategic and tactical benefits: strategic in the sense of finding common objectives and mutually reinforcing efforts that include dialogue, and tactical in the sense of working alongside and learning from each other.

Chinese Peacekeeper Killed in Mali Attack

The Diplomat published on 2 June 2016 a report titled "Chinese Peacekeeper Killed in Mali Attack" by Shannon Tiezzi. One Chinese peacekeeper was killed and four were injured during an attack, presumably by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in Gao, Mali at the camp of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA). Sixty peacekeepers attached to MINUSMA have been killed, more than any other UN peacekeeping mission.

Chinese Nationals in Africa: Security Becoming Growing Issue

The Diplomat published on 20 November 2015 a report titled "Chinese Citizens among 170 Hostages Taken in Mali Hotel" by Shannon Tiezzi.  Three senior executives with the China Railway Construction Corporation died in the attack. 

The Diplomat subsequently published on 29 November 2015 a report titled "After Deadly Attack in Mali, How Will China Protect its Citizens Abroad?" by Benjamin David Baker.  Baker discusses the growing number of security threats faced by Chinese nationals living in or visiting Africa.  He adds that Beijing is trying to develop a credible response to these threats.

Deployment of Chinese Peacekeepers in Mali

The Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations published in September 2015 a report titled "China's Evolving Role in Peacekeeping and African Security: The Deployment of Chinese Troops for UN Force Protection in Mali" by Frans Paul van der Putten.

In 2013, China dispatched a force protection unit to Mali with the UN's peacekeeping force MINUSMA.  This report evaluates the deployment with regard to: (a) its operational aspects, including possibilities for Sino-European cooperation at the local level; (b) China's stance towards UN peacekeeping operations; and (c) the relevance of peacekeeping operations for the protection of Chinese civilians and economic assets in Africa.