Somaliland Election Complicates Relations with China and Taiwan

 The Pan African Review published on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "What Somaliland's 2024 Elections Mean for the China-Taiwan Rivalry in the Horn" by Peter Kagwanja, Africa Policy Institute and former advisor to the government of Kenya.  

Somaliland's drive for international recognition and its MOU with Ethiopia that traded Ethiopian diplomatic recognition for a military facility in Somaliland, contributed to the recent electoral defeat of President Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye party and the victory of opposition candidate Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi and his Waddani party.  President Abdi's close ties with Taiwan and Taipei's financial support for his reelection campaign added to the electoral backlash.

China has criticized the Somaliland-Taiwan relationship from the beginning and emphasized acceptance of the one China principle.  In turn, it adopted a one Somalia policy and accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  The election of President Abdullahi in Somaliland tilts the balance of power in the Horn of Africa in favor of China.  An added complication to this development is the predilection of the incoming Trump administration to favor diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.  

US Not Yet Ready for Diplomatic Recognition of Somaliland

 Foreign Policy published on 21 March 2022 a commentary titled "Somaliland Courts U.S. for Independence Recognition" by Robbie Gramer and Mary Yang.  

The US made clear during the visit to Washington by Somaliland President Musa Bihi Abdi that it does not intend to recognize the independence of Somaliland but it is open to closer relations.  

Somaliland President Visits Washington

 Kenya's The Standard published on 17 March 2022 an article titled "Somaliland Push for Recognition Gains US Lawmakers Backing" by Jacob Ng'etich.

This is an account of the recent visit to Washington by Somaliland President Musa Bihi Abdi, who had wide ranging meetings and received a sympathetic hearing in the US Congress.  

Somaliland Seeks US Recognition by Leveraging Taiwan Connection

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 January 2022 an article titled "Somaliland Offers to Resist Growing Chinese Influence in Africa as It Seeks US Recognition" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, is urging the United States to establish a "representative office" in Hargeisa, its capital, as Taiwan has already done.  Somaliland is playing the Taiwan card in an effort to obtain diplomatic recognition.  

Opposition Wins Somaliland Parliamentary Elections

 Reuters published on 6 June 2021 an article titled "Somaliland Opposition Win Majority in First Parliamentary Vote since 2005."

Somaliland opposition political parties--WADDANI and Justice and Welfare--respectively won 31 and 21 parliamentary seats in the 82-member chamber.  The ruling Unity and Development Party won 30 seats.  The two opposition parties said they would join forces.  They also won a majority of the seats in municipal races.  The next presidential vote is scheduled for 2022. 

Somaliland: Egypt versus Ethiopia and China versus Taiwan

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 6 September 2020 a commentary titled "Somaliland's New Cold War Diplomacy" by Mohamed Farah Hersi, director of the Academy for Peace and Development in Somaliland.  

The dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is also playing out in Somaliland, where both countries are trying to strengthen their positions.  The recent exchange of "representative offices" by Taiwan and Somaliland has introduced new political competition between Taiwan and China.  

Somaliland's New President

World Politics Review published on 1 December 2017 an analysis titled "Can Somaliland's New President Steer It Toward International Recognition?" by Megan Iacobini de Fazio, a freelance writer based in East Africa.

Following the recent election of Somaliland's new president, Musa Bihi Abdi, the author noted that he is seen as a strong leader who will uphold the rule of law and fight corruption. Despite its challenges, Somaliland has made strides in establishing a stable, peaceful and relatively functional proto-state. But the author adds Bihi will have to demonstrate that he is capable of moving beyond a narrow definition of democratic success in order to make Somaliland more inclusive and equal for all its citizens.