Ten African Security Trends in 2025

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in December 2025 an infographic titled "Ten African Security Trends from 2025 in Graphics."

The paper covers the following issues:

--Sudan Fragmentation Strains Region

--Militant Islamist Group Momentum

--Impunity and Abuses of Power

--China and Russia Expand Foothold

--Growing Gulf Actor Competition

--Escalated Fighting in the DRC

--Regional Instability Impacts Nigeria

--Evolving Warfare Technology

--Urbanization and Youth Protests

--Progress toward Agenda 2063

Removal of Mugabe in Zimbabwe Highlights China's Influence in Africa

The South China Morning Post published on 1 December 2017 an article titled "What the Mugabe Coup Says about China's Plans for Africa" by Bobby Jordan.

While Beijing dismisses claims it was involved in regime change in Zimbabwe, the author suggests that the downfall of Robert Mugabe demonstrates the increasingly active role of China in Africa, especially in countries where Western nations have fallen out of favor.

Analysis of Crisis in South Sudan

The Juba-based independent think tank, The Sudd Institute, published on 4 January 2014 an analysis titled "South Sudan and the Prospects for Peace Amidst Violent Political Wrangling" by Jok Madut Jok, cofounder of the Institute. 

This informative analysis suggests that ethnic politics has been overplayed in analyzing the recent crisis in South Sudan.  The real question is the degree to which ethnic identity is employed by the politicians who are vying to control the state.  Jok also warns that any attempt by the South Sudan government to punish rebel leader Riek Machar will only prolong the conflict. 

"Is There Such Thing As A Good Coup?"

I'm quoted in Jason McLure's Newsweek article, "Is There Such Thing As A Good Coup?." Here's the reference:

"I don't believe there is a 'good' extralegal coup," says David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to neighboring Burkina Faso. "What Tandja did by rejecting the decisions of Niger's established judicial and legislative institutions and extending himself in office was reprehensible. But the actions of the coup makers were equally wrong."

Here's the full quote I provided to the reporter:

I don't believe there is a "good" extralegal coup. It is just that some are less bad than others. What Tandja did by rejecting the decisions of Niger's established judicial and legislative institutions and extending himself in office was reprehensible. But the actions of the coup makers were equally wrong. The only way that Niger can redeem itself at this point is to return quickly to civilian rule followed by a new free and fair election. I hope the United States and the African Union speak out against both the way in which Tandja remained in power and the manner that he was removed.

Interview with Radio France Internationale

I did a phone interview today with Radio France Internationale concerning the arrest of Ethiopians charged with plotting to overturn the government. RFI asked what I thought of the upcoming trial. I responded that the two dozen or so persons arrested did not seem to me to have the capability to overturn the government. One of the alleged leaders is a professor at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania who is married to an American. I suggested it was not possible to orchestrate a coup plot from such a long distance. The group of persons arrested has been highly critical of the government. I suggested that the arrests may be more a result of the group's hostile rhetoric than any real attempt to change the government. As for the trial, the process would follow Ethiopian law. At the same time, the judiciary is not totally independent in Ethiopia and it would stretch the point to conclude that the trial will be free and fair as we understand the process in the West.