The Challenges for Russia to Maintain Wagner Group Activities in Africa

 The Conversation published on 4 September 2023 a commentary titled "Russia in Africa: Prigozhin's Death Exposes Putin's Real Motives on the Continent" by Joseph Siegle, University of Maryland.

Russia's goals in Africa include securing a foothold in North Africa and the Red Sea, undermining Western influence, normalizing authoritarianism, and displacing the UN-led international system.  The Wagner model has seen Russian influence expand rapidly in Africa.  The challenge for Russia today is whether the Russian military has the capacity to provide experienced soldiers in Africa because Wagner troops may not be willing to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.

Russia's Future in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 15 August 2023 a study titled "Russis Is Still Progressing in Africa.  What's the Limit?" by Mathieu Droin and Tina Dolbaia.

The Kremlin's playbook in Africa will likely be recalibrated rather than overturned as a result of recent developments on the continent.  This paper examines Russia's creeping influence in Africa and assesses its diplomatic, economic, and security links.

Wagner Group Signals Continued Freedom to Operate in Africa

 The US Institute for Peace published on 3 August 2023 a commentary titled "Russia's Africa Summit--and  Future for Wagner" by Heather Ashby, James Rupert, and Kirtika Sharad.  

Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin's appearance at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg indicates that the organization will continue its Africa engagement and maintain a significant degree of freedom even after its recent mutiny in Russia.

Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg

 The Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit" by Pavel K. Baer.

The author concluded that Russia offered "many pompous pronouncements" at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg but Moscow can no longer bankroll friendly African regimes nor compete with China's investment in resource extraction.  

Russia-Africa Summit Falls Short

 The Associated Press published on 30 July 2023 an article titled "African Leaders Leave Russia Summit without Grain Deal or a Path to End the War in Ukraine" by Cara Anna.

After two days at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, African leaders departed with little to show for their requests to resume a deal that kept grain flowing from Ukraine and to find a path to end the war there.  Putin's promise of 25,000 to 50,000 tons of free grain to six African countries is a surprisingly small amount compared to that provided by other donors.  

Analysis of Russia-Africa Summit

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "Second Russia-Africa Summit Lays Bare Russia's Waning Influence" by Vadim Zaytsev.  

Since the last Russia-Africa Summit in 2019 at Sochi, Russia's standing in Africa has declined.  Trade is less today than in 2019 and Russia accounts for only 1 percent of foreign direct investment in Africa.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine has battered its reputation in a number of African countries and the activities of the Wagner Group remain controversial.  The Kremlin appears to have little time for Africa and Africa does not have much more for Russia.

Can Africa and China Help End the Russia-Ukraine War?

 Aljazeera published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Can Africa and China Help End the Russia-Ukraine War?" by Nils Adler.  

There will likely be no peace negotiations soon as neither Ukraine nor Russia is prepared to cede territory.  Eventually, China's influence over Russia and Africa's relative neutrality could make them well-placed to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.  

Russia-Africa Summit Attendance Disappoints

 Aljazeera published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Putin On a Charm Offensive as Russia-Africa Summit Kicks Off" by Virginia Pietromarchi.

The Russia-Africa Summit opened in St. Petersburg on 27 July.  Only 17 African heads of state or government are attending as compared to 43 who attended the 2019 summit in Sochi.  This summit is being dogged by controversy over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the recent cancellation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which will impact negatively some African countries.  

Growing African Concern over Russian Cancellation of Black Sea Grain Initiative

 Aljazeera published on 21 July 2023 an article titled "Concern Mounts in East Africa over Halted Black Sea Grain Deal" by Sophie Neiman.  

Some African countries already troubled by drought and climate change are now concerned that Russia's decision to end the Black Sea Grain Initiative will result in acute food shortages.

Politico published on 19 July 2023 an article titled "Putin Tightens Grip on Africa after Killing Black Sea Grain Deal" by Susannah Savage.

The author suggests African leaders are reluctant to criticize Vladimir Putin for this decision in the runup to the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg scheduled for 27-28 July, although a few are speaking out.  

The Washington Post published on 21 July 2023 an article titled "Russia Comes Under Global Criticism for Grain Deal Pullout, Port Attacks" by Claire Parker and Robyn Dixon.  

The article expands criticism of Russia's decision to cancel the grain deal to include countries such as Egypt, Gabon, and China.