Impact on Yemen of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses published on 25 September 2024 an analysis titled "The Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Impact on Yemen" by Prasanta Kumar Pradhan.  

The Red Sea conflict has created new obstacles in the intra-Yemeni dialogue, slowing the pace of talks and further eroding trust among the parties.  The delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people is also disrupted.  These developments are worsening Yemen's political, security, and economic situation, making the prospects for peace more tenuous.

Red Sea Attacks Pose Conundrum for the US

 The American Enterprise Institute posted on 6 September 2024 a commentary titled "America Is Losing the Battle of the Red Sea" by Hal Brands.

The Red Sea crisis demonstrates how a minor actor can use relatively cheap capabilities to disrupt a critical shipping lane.  In response, the United States has been reluctant to take more robust action.  

Houthis Falsely Claim to Sink US Aircraft Carrier

 USNI News published on 7 August 2024 an article titled "Disinformation Effort Key to Houthi Red Sea Campaign, Says 5th Fleet Commander" by Heather Mongilio.

As the US aircraft carrier, Dwight D. Eisenhower, returned safely home, Houthi rebels in Yemen falsely claimed they had sunk it.  The Houthis maintain an active disinformation campaign, although they have sunk 3 commercial ships and continue to threaten shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  

Increased Houthi Attacks Result in Extension of US Carrier Force

 The Associated Press published on 31 May 2024 an article titled "Pentagon Chief Extends Deployment of Aircraft Carrier, Ships in the Red Sea as Houthi Attacks Go On" by Lolita C. Baldor.  

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin extended deployment in the Red Sea region for at least another month of the aircraft carrier Eisenhower, a cruiser, and two destroyers to combat Houthi attacks from Yemen against international shipping.  The decision follows a surge in attacks by the Houthis.  

China's Calculated Inaction in Red Sea Crisis

 The Center for Maritime Security published on 6 May 2024 an analysis titled "China's Calculated Inaction in Red Sea Crisis" by David Scott, Corbett Centre for Maritime Policy Studies.

China has maintained a deliberate distancing from the Red Sea crisis in spite of its considerable interest in keeping the waterway open.  The author suggests a variety of reasons why China is pursuing this policy.

Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Are Out of News But Not Over

 War on the Rocks published on 23 April 2024 an analysis titled "Solving the Houthi Threat to Freedom of Navigation" by Allison Minor, Brookings Institution.  

Although Houthi attacks from Yemen on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have faded from the news cycle, the threat is unlikely to go away soon and continues to interrupt commerce in the region.  The international response has not reassured commercial actors to resume major shipping activity in the Red Sea.

An end to the war in Gaza, the Houthis stated reason for initiating the attacks, will not likely end them.  The Houthis demand access to additional Yemeni oil and gas resources in order to strengthen their control over northern Yemen.  An UN-backed political process for dealing with the conflict in Yemen may be the best way out of this conundrum.  

China Continues to Freeload in Red Sea

 Bloomberg published on 15 January 2024 an article titled "Xi Steers Chinese Navy Away from Red Sea Risk."

China has concluded that the costs are not yet high enough to outweigh the risks of getting involved in efforts to end Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.  China can freeload on responses by the United States, United Kingdom, and others while stoking anti-American sentiment in the region.  

Chinese Navy Trains in Gulf of Aden While Chinese Shipping Companies Avoid Red Sea

 

CCTV Video News Agency recently posted a short clip titled "China's 45th Naval Fleet Conducts Anti-Terrorism Drill in Gulf of Aden."

The video shows PLA Navy ships comprising the 45th Naval Fleet (destroyer Urumqi, frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu) recently training in the Gulf of Aden for hypothetical antipiracy and counterterrorism operations.  At the same time, Iranian-supported Houthis in Yemen are attacking with drones and missiles international shipping in the nearby Red Sea, forcing many shipping companies to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. China's state-owned COSCO and Orient Overseas Container Line, which is part of the COSCO Group, have rerouted their ships to avoid possible Houthi attacks.   

The United States, which relies minimally on the Red Sea for commercial transport, is leading an international naval effort to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.  China, which has a significant interest in Red Sea commercial shipping, has naval vessels in the area but apparently has decided not to use them even to protect vessels flagged and owned by China.  Curious.  

US-led Red Sea Protection Force

 The Associated Press published on 19 December 2023 an article titled "Pentagon Announces New International Maritime Protection Force for the Red Sea."

At any given time, there are about 400 commercial vessels transiting the southern Red Sea in an area where Iranian-supported and Yemen-based Houthis are attacking commercial shipping with drones and ballistic missiles.  Consequently, the United States has organized Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect all ships transiting the Red Sea.  So far, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain have joined the security mission. 

One notably absent participant is China, which has three PLA Navy ships (usually two frigates and a supply ship) permanently assigned in the area.  So far, those ships have not responded to previous calls for assistance by commercial vessels even though some of the ships attacked have had ties to Hong Kong.  

Challenge of Detering Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 The Soufan Center, an independent, non-profit, research organization based in New York, published on 19 December 2023 an analysis titled "IntelBrief: Major Powers Struggle to Deter Houthi Shipping Attacks."

Houthi attacks have caused several large commercial shipping companies to avoid Red Sea routes, putting pressure on the United States and its allies to respond to the Houthis more forcefully.  The United States has organized a maritime coalition called Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect shipping in the Red Sea. Washington is also considering strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.