Gulf State Financial Flows to Northeast Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute published an updated version of its "Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment: Tracking the Implications of State Capitalism, Aid, and Investment Flows" by Karen E. Young.  

The study looks at capital investment and jobs created by the Gulf States from 2003 to 2020 in several states, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Sudan.  The study compares Gulf State investment with that from China, EU, UK, and US.  It also includes an interactive data tracker.  

Gulf State Financial Flows to Horn of Africa and Elsewhere

 The American Enterprise Institute published in August 2020 a study titled "Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment: Tracking the Implications of State Capitalism, Aid, and Investment Flows" by Karen E. Young.  

The report describes the breadth and scope of Gulf State aid and financial flows into Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Sudan, and Yemen.  China is capturing most of the press attention; the Gulf States collectively are much bigger players in these countries.  

China's Investment Flows to Africa Less than UK and France

The Conversation posted on 24 March 2020 a commentary titled "China's Investment in Africa: A Fresh Lens Offers More Balanced Insights" by Simon Manda, University of Zamiba.

Much of the discussion on Chinese capital flows to Africa significantly overstates China's contribution to foreign direct investment (FDI). The United Kingdom and France continue to provide more annual FDI.

China's Overseas Lending

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a working paper in June 2019 titled "China's Overseas Lending" by Sebastian Horn and Christoph Trebesch of the Kiel Institute and Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University.

Although the report discusses China's global lending, there are numerous references to countries in Africa. It offers a comprehensive picture of China's official credit flows and looks particularly at "hidden debt" to China by countries such as Zimbabwe. Hidden debt is debt that neither the World Bank nor the International Monetary Fund has any data on as a result of China's lack of transparency.

China-Africa: Implications for US National Security

The Arroyo Center at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California, just published a book by Lloyd Thrall titled "China's Expanding African Relations: Implications for U.S. National Security."  It is available online free of charge. 

It explores China's rapidly expanding involvement in Africa in order to better inform U.S. thinking about its relations both with China and with African countries.  The study pays particular attention to geostrategic competition in Africa, potential security threats driving Chinese engagement with African states and assesses potential medium-term changes in Sino-African relations across these three dimensions.  It then assesses how China's interests and behavior on the continent affect the interests of the United States.  The report recommends that the United States view China's sometimes unfavorable activities in Africa in context and continue to seek opportunities to engage Beijing on mutual interests, such as defeating violent extremists, improving African infrastructure to promote trade and development, and encouraging economic and political stability on the continent.

Good GDP Growth Rates in Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in October 2013 its Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.  It looked especially at drivers of growth in nonresource-rich countries and the issue of managing volatile capital flows.

One of the surprising results of the IMF study is that eight of the twelve fastest-growing economies in Africa in recent years did not rely on natural resources.  Six countries--Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda--had on average from 1995 to 2010 a GDP growth rate of at least 5 percent and a per capita growth rate of at least 3 percent.  The IMF credited their success to controlling public finance, curbing inflation and improving the climate for the private sector.

In the case of Ethiopia, the IMF said the real GDP growth rate from 1995 to 2010 averaged 7.3 percent and the real GDP per capita growth rate averaged 4.6 percent.  While these averages are lower than those claimed by the government of Ethiopia, they are still very impressive by any measure.

The Economist did a brief analysis of the the IMF study on 2 November 2013 titled "No Need to Dig."  It focused on those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest growth rates.