Saudi-UAE Rivalry Playing Out in Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 16 January 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.

Increasing Saudi-UAE rivalry in Yemen may also be playing out in Sudan where the UAE has backed militarily the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Saudi Arabia may now finance Pakistani weapons for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  The SAF deal with Pakistan gives Khartoum another reason to continue to slow roll a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast as it has less need for similar military assistance promised by Moscow.

Sudan Renews Naval Base Talks with Russia

 The Wall Street Journal published on 1 December 2025 an article titled "Sudan Offers Russia Its First Naval Base in Africa" by Benoit Faucond and Nicholas Bariyo.

Sudan's military government has revived discussions with Moscow for a naval base on the Red Sea.  Sudan is offering Russia a 25-year lease to station up to 300 troops and 4 warships--including nuclear powered ones--at Port Sudan or another Red Sea location.  In exchange, Sudan would receive advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems and other weaponry at preferential prices to support its war against the Rapid Support Forces.

Comment:  This naval base has been under discussion for years but always seems to encounter problems before a final deal is reached.  It is not clear if agreement has actually been reached on this occasion.

Sudan Armed Forces Delegation in Washington

 Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) posted on 30 October 2024 an article titled "Khartoum Courts Washington" by Rasha Ibrahim.

A delegation representing the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is in Washington meeting with Massad Boulos, the senior Trump administration official for Africa, on possible areas of collaboration.  According to MBM, one of the items under discussion is the SAF's willingness to review its agreement with Moscow concerning a naval base in the Red Sea if the US pressures the UAE to end its military and logistical support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. 

Russian Naval Base in Sudan: Not so Fast

 World Politics Review published on 21 February 2025 an analysis titled "Sudan Isn't as Committed to a Russian Base as It Seems" by Elfadil Ibrahim, analyst of Sudanese politics.  

The recent announcement by Sudan's foreign minister that there are "no obstacles" for a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast was misleading.  While a deal was reached in 2020, the agreement must be ratified by parliament, which has not functioned in Sudan for nearly six years.  The situation is further complicated by Sudan's ongoing civil war.  

Sudan Authorizes Russian Naval Base in Red Sea

 The BBC posted on 13 February an article titled "'No Obstacles' to Russian Red Sea Base -- Sudan" by Basillioh Rukanga.

Sudan's foreign minister said on 12 February his country had reached a deal with Russia for the establishment of a naval base at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  The 25-year agreement allows Russia to establish a naval logistics hub with warships including nuclear-powered vessels and up to 300 personnel.  All that remains is ratification of the deal.

Sudan Armed Forces Advance in Khartoum; Russia May Be Closer to Base in Port Sudan

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Africa File published on 13 February an article titled "SAF Announces Government Plan and Russian Naval Base."

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has recaptured nearly all of the capital city of Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is preparing to form a technocratic government after it completes a takeover of the capital.  The RSF still controls much of western Sudan.  

The door may finally be open to Russia to establish a long-discussed naval base at Port Sudan, the SAF's current capital, following US sanctions on the SAF and its leader.

Is Russian Naval Base in Port Sudan Still a Possibility?

 Radio Dabanga, an exiled Sudanese media house, posted on 27 December 2024 an article titled "Sudan-Russia Naval Base Talks Still Ongoing, Diplomats Say."

Earlier this month, The Moscow Times reported that Sudan had officially declined Russia's request to establish a naval base on the Red Sea coast in Port Sudan, an issue that has been under discussion for more than 5 years.

The Russian embassy in Sudan and the Sudanese ambassador to Russia subsequently denied the claim, saying that the proposal remains under review as part of a broader effort to strengthen Sudanese-Russian ties.    

War Between Ethiopia and Somalia?

 The New York Times published on 26 August 2024 a commentary titled "The Coming War Nobody Is Talking About" by Afyare A. Elmi and Yusuf Hassan, both at the City University of Mogadishu.

The authors charge that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's obsession with making landlocked Ethiopia a coastal state by opening a naval base in Somaliland will create conditions for a potential war between Ethiopia and Somalia.  

Somalia-Ethiopia Talks in Turkey to Continue

 Radio France Internationale posted on 17 August 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia and Somalia Move Closer to Resolving Somaliland Dispute."

Turkey will host a third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia on 17 September in an effort to mediate the differences over the Ethiopian-Somaliland memorandum of understanding for a naval base near Berbera in the Gulf of Aden.  The parties did not reach an agreement in the first two rounds of talks.

What Game Is Russia Playing in Sudan?

 Eurasia Review published on 1 July 2024 a commentary titled "Sudanese Armed Forces Agrees to Russian Red Sea Base in Exchange for Weapons" by the Africa Defense Forum published by US Africa Command.  

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has revived talks with Russia for establishing a logistics and refueling base, "not a fully equipped naval facility," in the Red Sea.  This raises the question if Russia plans to shift its previous support for the Rapid Support Forces to the SAF or tries to play both sides of the conflict.  

Russia-Eritrea Naval Base Talks

 Estonia's EestiEest published on 13 June 2024 an article titled "What's Holding Up the Speculative Russian-Eritrean Naval Base Talks?" 

Russia's ambassador to Eritrea told TASS that Asmara "advocates the permanent presence of our fleet in the Red Sea" and hinted that it offered Moscow a naval base earlier this year.  The author of the article speculated that Asmara wants more in return from Moscow than just rent and that is what is holding up an agreement.  The author added that Eritrea may be demanding that Russia take Asmara's side in a dispute with Ethiopia, a demand that Moscow would not be able to accept.  

Why Is Russia Reinforcing Its Military Presence in Libya?

 The US-based Institute for the Study of War published on 16 May 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Outreach Across Africa" by Liam Karr.

Much of the analysis focuses on the recent increase in Libya of Russian soldiers and equipment.  Explanations for this activity include the Kremlin's desire to acquire a naval base at Tobruk in eastern Libya where it would pose a threat to NATO countries, using Libya as a platform to supply Russian military operations in African countries to the south, positioning itself to resolve the stalemate between the Government of National Accord in western Libya and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in eastern Libya, and weaponizing migrant flows from Africa to Europe.  

Another Analysis of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 March 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Somaliland Gambit Rattles a Shaky Horn" by Jussi Grut, a researcher focusing on the history and politics of East Africa.

The author concludes that while conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is unlikely, this diplomatic row is further destabilizing a fragile region.  It may also revive the possibility of closer ties between the Ogaden National Liberation Front in Ethiopia and an increasingly upset Somalia.  Without significant investments in infrastructure, the Memorandum of Understanding is not likely to affect Ethiopia's import or export of goods. 

Russia's Red Sea Naval Base on Hold for Now

 Foreign Policy published on 15 July 2023 an article titled "Russia's Dreams of a Red Sea Naval Base Are Scuttled--for Now" by Amy Mackinnon, Bobbie Gramer, and Jack Detsch. 

In 2020, Moscow signed a 25 year agreement with Sudan to base up to four naval vessels at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  The deal appears to have run afoul of internal Sudanese politics and the conflict between Sudan Armed Forces leader and de facto head of state General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, according to two U.S. intelligence officials who spoke to Foreign Policy. 

For its part, Russia is wary of getting involved in a major base deal with Sudan when the country's future is in doubt.  Russia may be looking at other basing options in the Red Sea.  In 2018, it held discussions with Eritrea concerning the establishment of a Russian "logistics hub" on its Red Sea coast.  

Russian Mercenary Group Closely Tied to Sudan's Warring Generals

 The Washington Post published on 22 April 2023 an article titled "Russian Mercenaries Closely Linked with Sudan's Warring Generals" by Katharine Houreld, Dalton Bennett, and Robyn Dixon.  

Russia's mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group has provided equipment and training to the Sudanese security forces, especially the Rapid Support Forces, advised government leaders, and conducted information operations.  Wagner's founder, Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, reportedly even offered to mediate the Sudan crisis.