The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 22 June 2017 a commentary titled "Time To Repeal U.S. Sanctions on Sudan?"
By 12 July 2017, the Trump administration must determine whether to permanently lift the economic and trade sanctions the Obama administration suspended in January. The ICG argues the US should repeal some sanctions and continue a process of conditional engagement.
Showing posts with label LRA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LRA. Show all posts
Friday, June 23, 2017
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Poverty and Terrorism in Africa
The summer/fall 2016 issue of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published my article titled "Poverty and Terrorism in Africa: The Debate Continues." It is only available by subscription or through a library.
My bottom line conclusion is that poverty is not and never has been the cause of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, it is one of a dozen or more factors that have contributed to an environment that has enabled terrorist organizations such as al-Shabaab and Boko Haram to draw support.
My bottom line conclusion is that poverty is not and never has been the cause of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, it is one of a dozen or more factors that have contributed to an environment that has enabled terrorist organizations such as al-Shabaab and Boko Haram to draw support.
Monday, June 20, 2016
Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda Interested in Cooperation?
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a commentary on 20 June 2016 titled "From Conflict to Cooperation? Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda" by Casie Copeland, ICG senior analyst for South Sudan, and Magnus Taylor, ICG analyst in the Horn of Africa Group.
The authors suggest a new understanding between Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda could bring a welcome change to the Horn's complex balance of alliances and animosities.
The authors suggest a new understanding between Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda could bring a welcome change to the Horn's complex balance of alliances and animosities.
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
US Special Operations Command Africa
The May 2016 issue of the CTC Sentinel contains an interview with Brigadier General Donald C. Bolduc, Commander, Special Operations Command Africa, titled "A View from the CT Foxhole." Bolduc sets forth a common sense US approach for assisting African countries with their counterterrorism challenges.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
South Sudan: Conflict in Equatoria
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 25 May 2016 an analysis titled "South Sudan's South: Conflict in the Equatorias." It reports on continuing conflict in Equatoria region driven by a combination of national governance issues--federalism, security sector reform, and a new constitution--and localized grievances. Although conflict is on the wane in Equatoria, the new South Sudan peace agreement could revive contentious issues in Equatoria.
Monday, June 2, 2014
The Crisis in South Sudan: A Game of Regional Chess
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa published on 26 May 2014 an analysis titled "The Crisis in South Sudan: A Game of Regional Chess" by Berouk Mesfin, a senior researcher at ISS. He analyzes the interests of Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea in South Sudan.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Radio Russia Interview on US Military Presence in Africa
Radio Voice of Russia in America asked me to comment on 6 May 2014 on the renewal by the United States of the agreement with Djibouti to renew the lease for use of land by the military. The 15 minute interview also dealt with US military issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond. It may take a minute or two for the radio program to load.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
South Sudan: Case for Ugandan Troops
The Juba-based Sudd Institute (SI), an independent research organization, published on 4 March 2014 a commentary titled "The Question of Ugandan Troops in South Sudan" by Abraham Awolich, a founding member of SI.
Awolich acknowledges that the government of South Sudan was embarrassed by the fact that Ugandan troops had to come to its defense when it was under attack. It was equally shameful that South Sudanese had to flee to UN camps for protection because the government could not protect them. Having said that, Awolich makes the argument why it was necessary to invite Ugandan forces into South Sudan and why they should remain for the time being.
Awolich acknowledges that the government of South Sudan was embarrassed by the fact that Ugandan troops had to come to its defense when it was under attack. It was equally shameful that South Sudanese had to flee to UN camps for protection because the government could not protect them. Having said that, Awolich makes the argument why it was necessary to invite Ugandan forces into South Sudan and why they should remain for the time being.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Comments on African Issues
US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, responded to questions from the media for 50 minutes on US policy towards Africa on 11 February 2014 on LiveAtState. Secretary of State John Kerry opened the session with brief remarks about US-Africa polichy.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Chasing the Lord's Resistance Army
Kasper Agger, writing for The Enough Project, authored a good report on efforts by the Ugandan military to track down the leaders of the Lord's Resistance Army. He gives generally good marks to the Ugandan soldiers.
He concluded in the November 2012 report that a new strategy is needed which will ensure that adequately trained and equipped troops can be deployed rapidly on the basis of fresh, actionable intelligence about where the leadership is hiding.
Click here to read the report.
He concluded in the November 2012 report that a new strategy is needed which will ensure that adequately trained and equipped troops can be deployed rapidly on the basis of fresh, actionable intelligence about where the leadership is hiding.
Click here to read the report.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
US Expands Intelligence Operations in Africa
The Washington Post ran two articles on June 14, 2012, by Craig Whitlock on growing US intelligence activity in Africa. Click here to read the first one titled "U.S. Expands Secret Intelligence Operations in Africa." Click here to read the second one titled "Contractors Run U.S. Spying Missions in Africa."
German Radio Deutsche Welle asked me to comment June 14 on the first article.
I replied that most of the information in the article has been reported before. The U.S. military base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti has been widely covered. The drone operations in Victoria, Seychelles, and Arba Minch, Ethiopia, have been reported previously. There has been considerable discussion of the small U.S. military support operation in Uganda, South Sudan and the Central African Republic to track down Joseph Kony of the Lord's Resistance Army. There have also been a few public references to the assignment of U.S. commandos at Manda Bay, Kenya.
What was new to me were the surveillance operations out of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, and Nouakchott, Mauritania. The latter ended in 2008, although they may resume.
The only permanent base among these operations is the one at Djibouti. The others will continue only to the extent there is a continuing terrorist threat. To the best of my knowledge, the United States has no effort focused on Boko Haram in Nigeria and it is questionable if the Nigerian government would even request U.S. assistance.
African governments have obviously approved these activities, including drone intelligence operations. It is not clear that the African street approves of them. A recent study by the Pew Research Center (see item below) included reaction from the street in Egypt and Tunisia to U.S. drone operations and it was negative.
German Radio Deutsche Welle asked me to comment June 14 on the first article.
I replied that most of the information in the article has been reported before. The U.S. military base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti has been widely covered. The drone operations in Victoria, Seychelles, and Arba Minch, Ethiopia, have been reported previously. There has been considerable discussion of the small U.S. military support operation in Uganda, South Sudan and the Central African Republic to track down Joseph Kony of the Lord's Resistance Army. There have also been a few public references to the assignment of U.S. commandos at Manda Bay, Kenya.
What was new to me were the surveillance operations out of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, and Nouakchott, Mauritania. The latter ended in 2008, although they may resume.
The only permanent base among these operations is the one at Djibouti. The others will continue only to the extent there is a continuing terrorist threat. To the best of my knowledge, the United States has no effort focused on Boko Haram in Nigeria and it is questionable if the Nigerian government would even request U.S. assistance.
African governments have obviously approved these activities, including drone intelligence operations. It is not clear that the African street approves of them. A recent study by the Pew Research Center (see item below) included reaction from the street in Egypt and Tunisia to U.S. drone operations and it was negative.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
SPLM Secretary General Comments on Sudan Conflict and China
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Secretary General Pa'gan Amum spoke at Chatham House in London on 1 May 2012. Click here to read a transcript of his opening remarks and an audio account of a half hour question and answer session.
Amum's opening statement was relatively conciliatory. The question and answer session was more contentious and informative. The first comment came from Sudan's ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Amum asserted that the government in Khartoum has increased its assistance to the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). A reporter asked if the SPLM is providing any support to the SPLM-North, which has vowed to topple the Bashir government. Most neutral observers believe the SPLM is aiding the SPLM-North. Amum deftly skirted the question. Amum added later that "we are not for regime change in Sudan" although Khartoum is talking about regime change in South Sudan.
A surprising amount of the Q and A session dealt with China's role in trying to end the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Click here for a Reuters' account of the session that captures the gist of Amum's comments on China's role. Amum began by noting that China is the largest foreign investor in South Sudan and then criticized China for not playing a more active role in trying to end the dispute. He suggested that China is holding back because of its outdated view of noninterference in foreign issues.
Another person asked why the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) still has "battalions" nine and ten in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, both of which are north of the border. Amum responded that these are divisions, not battalions, nine and ten which were established by the former unified Sudanese government during the CPA and were initially authorized by Khartoum to remain. Khartoum subsequently asked them to disband and the two sides have not reached agreement on their future.
Amum's opening statement was relatively conciliatory. The question and answer session was more contentious and informative. The first comment came from Sudan's ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Amum asserted that the government in Khartoum has increased its assistance to the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). A reporter asked if the SPLM is providing any support to the SPLM-North, which has vowed to topple the Bashir government. Most neutral observers believe the SPLM is aiding the SPLM-North. Amum deftly skirted the question. Amum added later that "we are not for regime change in Sudan" although Khartoum is talking about regime change in South Sudan.
A surprising amount of the Q and A session dealt with China's role in trying to end the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Click here for a Reuters' account of the session that captures the gist of Amum's comments on China's role. Amum began by noting that China is the largest foreign investor in South Sudan and then criticized China for not playing a more active role in trying to end the dispute. He suggested that China is holding back because of its outdated view of noninterference in foreign issues.
Another person asked why the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) still has "battalions" nine and ten in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, both of which are north of the border. Amum responded that these are divisions, not battalions, nine and ten which were established by the former unified Sudanese government during the CPA and were initially authorized by Khartoum to remain. Khartoum subsequently asked them to disband and the two sides have not reached agreement on their future.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
US Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Don Yamamoto, provided a good summary on 25 April 2012 in testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on instability in Africa and US strategy for countering terrorism. He discussed the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Boko Haram.
Yamamoto said the US approach for addressing these threats includes the following principles: regional ownership of meeting the threat, promoting good governance, supporting development and economic opportunity and enhancing regional cooperation. Implied but not stated, except in the case of the LRA, was the use of US resources for capturing and killing terrorists and violent extremists.
Click here to read the entire testimony.
Yamamoto said the US approach for addressing these threats includes the following principles: regional ownership of meeting the threat, promoting good governance, supporting development and economic opportunity and enhancing regional cooperation. Implied but not stated, except in the case of the LRA, was the use of US resources for capturing and killing terrorists and violent extremists.
Click here to read the entire testimony.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Lord's Resistance Army and US Policy
The Heritage Foundation published on 23 April 2012 an issue brief titled Lord's Resistance Army: A Symptom of Central Africa's Larger Problems. The brief analysis focuses on US policy and urges that American military advisers continue their efforts until the LRA's leadership is eliminated. Click here to read the piece by Morgan Lorraine Roach.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
