Sudan: Neither the SAF Nor the RSF

World Politics Review published on 12 May 2025 a commentary titled "Sudan's Army Is Not the 'Best Hope for Unity' It Portrays Itself As" by Ezzat Khairi, former spokesperson for the Forces of Freedom and Change.   

The author concludes that neither the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) nor the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) deserves legitimacy or support.  Both have committed grave atrocities, especially the RSF.  But the SAF coalition is unstable and has become a catalyst for deeper turmoil.

Sudan's civil war has metastasized into countless localized conflicts.  The author calls for re-engaging Sudan's civilian political forces, particularly those led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.  

Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan on US Efforts to Support Democracy

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in October 2024 a paper titled "U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan" by Brittany Gleixner-Hayat.  

The author concluded that while there are limits to what the U.S. government could have reasonably done to increase the likelihood of democratization in Ethiopia and Sudan, Washington missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.

The United States does not bear the responsibility for the failure of Ethiopia and Sudan to transition from authoritarianism to democracy.  The likelihood of democratization in both cases was low and the contexts were conflict prone.  However, the United States was a prominent external actor in both situations with a stated policy of supporting the consolidation of the democratic openings, so examining lessons learned is critical for future opportunities.

Sudan: No Place for People Like Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan

 Aljazeera published on 11 January 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan Should Avoid the Mistakes that Kept Angola in Conflict for 27 Years" by Tafi Mhaka, Aljazeera columnist.

Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo recently toured East Africa and met with President Cyril Ramphosa in South Africa in an effort to portray himself as a reasonable statesman.  The author argues that, at best, Dagalo is a political reincarnation of his former boss, ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, or, at worst, a rebel without a cause, palpable ideology, or moral compass.  

The author compares Dagalo to Jonas Savimbi, leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, who was killed in battle.  He concludes that a democratic Sudan will have no place for people like Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo or Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.  

Explaining Sudan's Collapse

 The Washington Post published on 7 May 2023 an article titled "How the Democratic Hopes of the Sudan Spring Went So Horribly Wrong" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.  

The article looks at the reasons for the breakdown of law and order in Sudan.  The key question is how do you get the men with the money and guns to give up their weapons?

Revolution and War in Sudan

 African Arguments published on 5 May 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan: Revolutionary Reflections, Amid a Raging War" by Robert Kluijver, Centre for International Research.

The author concludes that Sudanese civil society must form the basis for a national settlement of the crisis in Sudan.  This will require a long-term commitment by the international community.

Sudan Faces State Disintegration

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 3 May 2023 a commentary titled "The Looming Danger of State Disintegration in Sudan" by Amr Hamzawy.

The author concluded that Sudan is severely at risk for state failure and disintegration.  Sudan can be saved from this fate only if regional and international actors work to integrate the militias in the national army and facilitate talks between military and civilian groups.  

Sudanese Civil Society Leader Analyzes Conflict in His Country

 The International Crisis Group posted on 27 April 2023 a thirty-nine minute podcast titled "War and Anger Inside Sudan's Collapsed Capital" with Alan Boswell interviewing Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, former leader in Sudan's civilian Forces for Freedom and Change umbrella coalition, former assistant chief of staff to former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and former adviser to the UN mission in Sudan.

Speaking from Khartoum, Eltayeb described the current situation as the "saddest days in the history of Sudan."  While he acknowledged that Sudanese themselves must take much of the blame for the outbreak of conflict, he was critical of the international community for proposing a poorly designed peace process.  It had good intentions that led to a bad outcome. He argues that the international community was only listening to the Forces for Freedom and Change on the civilian side and not wider civil society.  The international community was pushing for any government irrespective of its wider acceptance among Sudanese civilians.  

The international community reportedly pushed for elections after two years but allowed up to ten years for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), essentially a private army, to integrate into the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  The RSF was trying to prolong its influence while the SAF was trying to shorten it.  Eltayeb believes the RSF needs to be dissolved and the SAF needs new leadership.  When asked what was the alternative to what actually happened, Eltayeb said there needed to be a longer peace process more focused on a discussion of issues rather than who should be in charge.

Getting Sudan's Democratic Transition Back on Track

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) published on 3 October 2022 a commentary titled "Helping Put Sudan's Democratic Transition Back on Track" by Benjamin Oestericher, FPRI intern.

The author argues that the international community, especially the United States, failed to adequately support Sudan's civilian government during the key window of opportunity it had to gain the legitimacy of the Sudanese people.  COVID-19, climate change, and serious flooding exacerbated the challenge.

Comment:  The missing part of this argument is the unwillingness of the military, which has the guns, to yield meaningful power to a civilian government.  

Foundation of Sudan's 2018-19 Revolution

 The US Institute of Peace published on 3 May 2022 a report titled "Sowing the Seeds of Nonviolent Action in Sudan" by Marija Marovic and Zahra Hayder.

The report explores the foundations of Sudan's 2018-2019 revolution, tracing the effects of local demand groups, civil society workshops, and professional associations on widespread mass participation, opposition unity and movement leadership, and nonviolent discipline.

Sudan's Ambassador to Washington Forced Out

 The Washington Diplomat published on 16 February 2022 an article titled "Sudan's US Envoy, Forced to Resign, Tells Us 'the Situation Is Disastrous'" by Larry Luxner.

Sudanese ambassador to the US, Nureldin Mohamed Hamed Satti, was forced to resign by Sudan's military government.  He recently commented that "politically, economically, socially, really from all points of view, Sudan is on the path to collapse."

Sudan-Israel Ties

 The Times of Israel published on 9 February 2022 an article titled "Sudanese Official Said to Be in Israel on Secret Visit."

A top official of Sudan's military government recently visited Israel to advance relations between the countries.  Some believe Israeli support for the military government will lead to more oppressive policies.  

A Critical Analysis of US Policy in Sudan

 Foreign Affairs posted on 4 February 2022 a commentary titled "America's Failure of Imagination in Sudan: Washington Should Have More Faith in the Forces of Democracy" by Michelle Gavin.

Washington tends to focus too much on key individuals in Sudan at the expense of systems.  The Sudanese ruling system will never dismantle itself.  The Sudanese protesters in the street demand systemic change; Washington needs to take stronger actions than legitimizing dialogues or transitional frameworks that empower the military to dictate the agenda.  

US Continues Withholding Aid to Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 20 January 2022 an article titled "US Says It Will Not Resume Sudan Aid after Recent Violence."

US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, David Satterfield, and US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, recently visited Khartoum.  They explained the United States will continue withholding aid from Sudan until the country's military rulers stop the killing of civilian protesters and a civilian-led government takes power.  

Reuters covered that same topic on 20 January 2022 in an article titled "Sudan Council Agrees with U.S. on Amending Democracy Transition Document."

Call for US to Support Sudan Protest Movement

 Just Security published on 18 January 2022 a commentary titled "For Sudan's Democratic Imperative the US and Others Must Intensify Support" by Dave Peterson, National Endowment for Democracy.

The author argues that the international community must get serious, impose punitive sanctions on military coup leaders, and decisively support the Sudanese people's struggle for freedom.  

Sudanese Pro-democracy Forces Split over UN-brokered Talks

 Aljazeera published on 16 January 2022 an article titled "Sudan Pro-democracy Faction Agrees to UN-brokered Talks."

The pro-democracy Forces of Freedom and Change agreed on 16 January to accept the offer by the UN mission to broker an end to the political deadlock with the military.  The pro-democracy Sudanese Professionals Association has rejected the UN offer.

Sudanese Security Forces Kill Seven More Protesters

 The Associated Press published on 17 January 2022 an article titled "Sudanese Forces Open Fire on Anti-coup Protesters, Killing 7" by Samy Magdy.

Sudanese security forces killed seven more civilian protesters on 17 January and wounded as many as 100.  

Sudanese Activists Committed to Civilian Rule

 Aljazeera posted on 11 January 2022 a 25-minute podcast titled "Is Sudan's Transition to Democracy Doomed?"

Three outspoken Sudanese women activists comment on the continuing protests in Sudan in opposition to military rule.  

Criticism of Biden Administration's Sudan Policy

 Foreign Policy posted on 7 January 2022 a commentary titled "Why Won't Biden Support Sudan's Democracy Movement" by Cameron Hudson and Kholood Khair.

The authors argue that Sudan did not get much attention at President Biden's democracy summit last month and the administration heaps praise on Sudan's military leaders.  It refers to Washington's "tacit support" of Sudan's generals and believes the administration has farmed out its Sudan policy to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who tend to support the military.

Comment:  While I agree with the authors that the democracy movement in Sudan deserves strong U.S. support, my read of Biden administration policy is different.  The United States has withheld significant assistance from Sudan and recent public U.S. statements have been pro-democracy movement and critical of the military.  I just don't see the "tacit support" of the generals.  

Protests Continue in Sudan Despite Military's Hard Ball Response

 Vox published on 6 January 2022 an article titled "The Uncertain Fight for Sudan's Democracy" by Jen Kirby.

Street protests urging a transition to civilian rule persist in Sudan despite strong arm tactics by the military and more deaths of protesters.   

US and Europe Warn Sudan's Military

 ABC News published on 5 January 2022 an article titled "US, Europe Warn Sudan's Military as Democratic Transition Unravels" by Conor Finnegan and Morgan Winsor.

As street protests continue in Sudan, the United States and Europe are taking a strong stand against efforts by the military to thwart the democratic transition.