Africa: Chinese Oil Imports on Decline, LNG Imports Rising

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 March 2025 an article titled "As Chinese Gas Investments in Africa Take Off, Oil Imports Sink" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China is importing less and less oil from Africa, now about 10 percent of its global oil imports, but is ramping up its investment in African LNG.   

How Houthi Attacks Impact Red Sea Shipping

 Reuters published on 19 December 2023 an article titled "How Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Impact Shipping in the Suez Canal" by Ahmad Ghaddar.

About 9 percent of global oil demand and 4 percent of global LNG imports pass through the Suez Canal and Red Sea while about 15 percent of world shipping goes through the Red Sea.  More large shipping companies are pausing passage through the Suez Canal and Red Sea in order to avoid attacks on commercial shipping by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.  This is driving up insurance rates and adding about 2 weeks of sailing time to those ships that are now using the route around the Cape of Good Hope.  

China's Concerns Over Indian Ocean Choke Points

 The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 22 March 2023 an analysis titled "China's Economic Security Challenge: Difficulties Overcoming the Malacca Dilemma" by Lucas Myers, Wilson Center's Asia Program.

Ninety percent of China's trade and 80 percent of its oil travels by sea.  During time of war, China fears a possible blockade of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) through the Indian Ocean choke points of the Suez Canal/Red Sea and Strait of Malacca.  Mitigating this dilemma is an increasingly important element of China's naval strategy.  

Russia's Ukraine War Boosts Energy Prices for African Exporters

 Forbes published on 13 March 2023 an article titled "Energy Diplomacy Isn't Helping Russia in Africa" by Ariel Cohen, Atlantic Council.  

African states mostly benefit from sanctions on Russia because of higher commodity prices for energy and fewer competitors.  There has been an expansion of African energy exports to European Union countries.  

President of African Union to Visit Moscow and Kyiv

 Agence France Presse published on 23 May 2022 an article titled "African Union Chief Announces Visits to Moscow, Kyiv."

Senegalese president and current president of the African Union, Macky Sall, will soon visit Russia and Ukraine on behalf of the African Union.  He added the African Union will arrange for President Zelensky to address the AU heads of state.  

How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 22 April 2022 an analysis titled "How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition" by Katie Auth and Todd Moss, both at the Energy for Growth Hub.  

The authors reached 7 conclusions:

(1) African leaders will increasingly frame energy poverty as an energy security issue deserving the same urgency.

(2) The rush to boost LNG supply to Europe will stoke further African frustration with climate hypocrisy--unless development finance follows through.

(3) Rising oil and gas prices will hurt African electricity markets.

(4) But rising interest rates will also create headwinds for renewable projects.

(5) The need to diversify away from Russia will reinvigorate interest in African oil and gas production for export.

(6) As the urgency behind decarbonization intensifies, demand for critical minerals will spur investment in African mining.

(7) Russian actions (and Western financial sanctions) could give countries pause about betting on Russian nuclear technology.  

US Export Import Bank Finally Offering Competition to China in Africa

The South China Morning Post published on 2 August 2020 an article titled "US 'Follows China's Path' in Africa by Funding Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas Project" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The Export-Import Bank of the US has approved a $4.7 billion loan, the largest direct loan in the bank's history in Sub-Saharan Africa, to support exports of US goods and services to construct an LNG facility in Mozambique.  This is one of the first indications of meaningful competition with China in Africa by the US bank. 

China's Policy in the Middle East and North Africa

The European Council on Foreign Relations published in October 2019 a paper titled "China's Great Game in the Middle East" by Camille Lons, International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, Jonathan Fulton, Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, Degang Sun, Fudan University, and Naser Al-Tamimi, UK-based political economist.

China's relationship with the Middle East and North Africa revolves around energy demand and the Belt and Road Initiative. While Beijing has become far more engaged in the economics of the region, it continues to believe that the United States can take responsibility for managing regional security.

Chinese Energy Financing in Africa

Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in February 2019 a report titled "Global Risks and Investment Uncertainty: Chinese Global Energy Finance in 2018" by Xinyue Ma, Kevin P. Gallagher, and Xintong Bu.

The report notes that of China's global energy financing between 2008 and 2012, Africa received on average 7 percent of the total. Between 2013 and 2017, this percentage increased to 20 percent annually. In 2018, Africa received almost $4.8 billion of a global total of $8.6 billion or about 55 percent. Chinese energy loans to Africa in 2018 were used primarily for coal and hydropower power generation.

Chinese Company Signs Major Pipeline Deal with Ethiopia (English and French)

The Oxford Business Group posted on 29 March 2018 an article titled "Cross-border LNG Project in Djibouti Sees Signs of Life."

Ethiopia signed in February an agreement with a Chinese and Hong Kong company to construct a 700 kilometer pipeline for sending gas from the Ethiopian Ogaden region to an LNG terminal in Djibouti. The entire project is expected to involve a $4 billion investment, of which $3 billion will be done in Djibouti.

Djibouti Hopes to Replicate Singapore

Gulf News published on 22 July 2017 an article titled "Africa's Singapore Is Slowly Taking Shape" by Bashir Goth, commentator on African affairs.

The author argues that Djibouti's strategic location accounts for its massive infrastructure projects, mainly from China, and interest by other countries such as the United States. Suggesting that Djibouti will one day reach the developmental level of Singapore, however, seems a stretch.

Chinese Company Building Gas Pipeline from Ethiopia to Djibouti

Oxford Business Group published in English and French on 12 September 2016 a report titled "Djibouti Banks on Chinese Energy Demand."

A Chinese and a Hong Kong company are constructing the $4 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline from Ethiopia's contested Ogaden region to the port of Djibouti. The 700-kilometer pipeline will have a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. The primary buyer of the LNG is expected to be China.