Talks End on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Without Significant Progress

 Aljazeera published on 25 September 2023 an article titled "Second Round of Negotiations on Ethiopia's Mega-dam Wrap Up."

Two days of talks in Addis Ababa involving representatives from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan ended without making significant progress according to Egypt and with Ethiopia pledging to continue talks "in good faith."  

Comment:  After four seasonal  annual fillings, Ethiopia completed filling the reservoir behind the dam this year.  During this period, there was no apparent harm done to downstream Sudan and Egypt as a result of withholding Blue Nile water in the reservoir.  The river is now flowing normally again through and over the hydropower dam, which is not diverting water for irrigation purposes.   

Issues Facing the New US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa

 The Middle East Institute published on 6 June 2022 my short note titled "A New US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa."

It briefly covers the challenges of conflict and the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia, the democratic transition in Sudan, the al-Shabaab threat in Somalia, and disagreement over Nile water usage following construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.

Egypt's Other Water Problem

 The Atlantic Council posted on 2 June 2021 a commentary titled "Egypt Has a Water Problem--And No, It's Not Only the GERD" by Yaniv Cohen.  

Although Egypt's population growth rate is now a moderate 2 percent annually, between 1960 and 2020, its population increased from 27 million to over 100 million.  Population growth and climate change are impacting Egypt's future of water sufficiency in ways unrelated to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  The water needs of Egypt's growing population threaten to outstrip the Nile River's capacity.  Egypt needs to look at water conservation measures.  

Egypt Acknowledges Ethiopian Filling of Blue Nile Dam Not a Problem This Year

 Agence France Press published on 19 May 2021 an article titled "Egypt Foreign Minister Says Water Safe Despite Ethiopian Dam Threat."

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is quoted as saying "We are confident the second filling of the dam [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile] by Ethiopia won't affect Egyptian water interests adversely.  We can deal with it through strict management of our water resources."

The Egypt Independent published on 19 May 2021 a similar account titled "The Second Filling of the GERD Will Not Impact Our Interests, Assures Egypt's FM."

Comment:  I have been making this argument for the past two years.  

Are Ethiopia and Egypt Headed toward Conflict over Nile Water?

 The Washington Post published on 1 April 2021 a commentary titled "Egypt and Ethiopia Are Heading toward Conflict over Water.  It's Time to Intervene" by Ezzedine C. Fishere, Dartmouth College.

The author argues that Egypt and Ethiopia are slowly inching toward conflict over the filling of the reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  Both countries have good relations with the US and China, which together with other international partners should intervene to prevent conflict from developing.

This piece repeats the same mistake that most recent reports on this topic are making when they say the Blue Nile accounts for 85 percent of the Nile water reaching Egypt.  Three Ethiopian tributaries (Blue Nile, Atbara, and Sobat) provide a maximum of 85 percent of the water reaching Egypt.  Although the percentages vary from year to year and the "experts" disagree on the precise amount of water contributed by each of the three tributaries, the percentage for the Blue Nile varies between 55 and 70 percent, for the Atbara between 12 and 14 percent, and for the Sobat, which flows into the White Nile south of Khartoum, a smaller percentage.  

Conflict on the Nile, US Policy, and Ethiopian Flight Ban

 The Washington Post published on 6 October 2020 a commentary titled "A Conflict Is Brewing on the Nile--and the Trump Administration Is Making Things Worse" by Stephen Paduano, London School of Economics.  

The author argues that the United States should help to solve Egypt's water needs by promoting better water management programs in Egypt than threatening to cut aid to Ethiopia.  

In the meantime, the director-general of Ethiopia's Civil Aviation Authority has banned all flights in the vicinity of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in order to secure the dam from possible attack.  

Egyptian Position on Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Foreign Policy published on 28 September 2020 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Power Play on the Nile Has Left the Region in a Deadlock" by Mohamed S. Helal, visiting associate professor at Harvard Law School.

The author charges that Ethiopia is trying to assert control over the Blue Nile and to reconfigure the political topography of the Nile Basin.  He adds that Egypt's position on this issue has been "principled and pragmatic."

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Regional Cooperation

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 11 August 2020 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Power Play Can Electrify Regional Cooperation" by Tsedeke Yihunie Woldu, Ethiopian economic policy activist.  

The author concluded the residents of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt need to appreciate each other's legitimate concerns and wisely expand the promise of the GERD Declaration of Principals towards regional economic integration.  

Podcast on Nile Water and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The New Africa Daily recently posted a podcast of more than one hour on issues relating to Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  Talar Belrhiti was the moderator.  The panelists were Hafsa Halawa, Middle East Institute, Addisu Lashitew, Brookings Institution, and myself. 

Ethiopia and Egypt Can't Agree on Nile Water Usage

Nature published on 4 October 2019 an article titled "Gigantic Nile Dam Prompts Clash between Egypt and Ethiopia" by Antoaneta Roussi.

The water ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan met in Khartoum on 4-5 October in an effort to agree on the timetable for filling the reservoir on the Blue Nile behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is 60 percent finished. The meeting apparently ended without any agreement. The main sticking point is the amount of time that it will take to fill the reservoir behind the hydropower dam as this will interrupt the flow of water that eventually reaches Egypt. There must also be agreement on how much water is released during the fill period. Egypt wants a longer fill period, Ethiopia a shorter period. Once the reservoir is filled, the river should flow normally, providing Ethiopia with power and Egypt with about the same amount of water that it has received over the ages, depending on annual rainfall in the Blue Nile catchment basin.

Sudan-Egypt Tension

The Institute for Defense Analyses Africa Watch published on 1 February 2018 a brief analysis titled "January Was a Rocky Month for Egypt-Sudan Relations" by Sarah Graveline.

The author concluded that while Egypt and Sudan, which are dealing with several disputes, appear likely to be able to reduce tensions in the short term, it is unlikely they will agree on long-term solutions.

Downstream Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 25 July 2017 a commentary titled "Downstream Costs of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" by Zachary Donnenfeld, ISS Pretoria.

The commentary focuses on the discrepancy between the Ethiopian and Egyptian view of the number of years required to fill the reservoir behind the dam, thus impacting the amount of Nile water available to Sudan and Egypt during that period.

Sudan and Egypt: Fraying Relations

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 9 June 2017 a commentary titled "Do Egypt and Sudan Have Anything in Common Anymore?" by Simon Allison, ISS consultant.

A number of differences are growing between Egypt and Sudan. This is good for Ethiopia but poses challenges for countries such as Saudi Arabia.

Sudan and the Gulf States

The Enough Project published in June 2015 a report titled "The Many Faces of al-Bashir: Sudan's Persian Gulf Power Games" by Omer Ismail. 

The author argues that Sudan's inclusion in the Arab coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, the recent agreement on a framework for a nuclear deal with Iran, and the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Egypt on Nile waters all dramatically alter Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's views of his opportunities.  Sudan's growing economic dependence on the Gulf States means, however, that those countries now have more leverage to press the NCP to agree to the political reforms and the negotiated compromises with the opposition that are needed to forge a lasting peace.

Ethiopia and Egypt: Nile Water Issues

Foreign Policy published on 6 March 2014 an article titled "Troubled Waters: Egypt and Ethiopia Are at Loggerheads over a Plan to Dam the Nile River" by Keith Johnson.  You may have to register with Foreign Policy to access the article.

Egypt Loses Momentum on Nile Issues

The Voice of America ran a useful update on 15 July 2013 by David Arnold on the Nile water issue titled "Nile Power Shifts Away from Egypt."  The thrust of the article is that Egypt has been losing influence over Nile water issues while upstream countries have been gaining influence.

Shinn Interview with Awramba Times

The Awramba Times interviewed me on 5 July 2013. The hour long program moderated by Dawit Kebede and Yared Tibebu aired on 21 July 2013. Issues covered included Ethiopia-US relations, Meles Zenawi, Hailemariam Desalegn, President Obama's trip to Africa, Susan Rice, China-Africa relations, Nile water, Renaissance Dam, Egypt, human rights, neocolonialism and ethnic politics.

Peter Pham Testimony on Ethiopia

J. Peter Pham, director of the Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, testified on 20 June 2013 before the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Human Rights and International Organizations on the topic "Ethiopia after Meles: The Future of Democracy and Human Rights." 

Pham's testimony covered a variety of topics including the legacy of Meles, an initial assessment of Hailemariam Desalegn, land grabs, agricultural policy, Nile water and Muslim protests.

Exaggerated Nile Basin Posting

Michael Kelley and Robert Johnson posted on Business Insider on 13 October 2012 an article titled "STRATFOR: Egypt Is Prepared to Bomb All of Ethiopia's Nile Dams."

Business Insider is a U.S. business/entertainment news website based in New York. The information for the article comes from leaked internal emails written by STRATFOR, a reputable privately owned publisher of geopolitical analysis based in Austin, Texas.

The article quoted one alleged Egyptian dispatch dated 1 June 2010 that said a high-level Egyptian security/intel source, in regular contact with Mubarak and [then intelligence head Omar} Suleiman said: "The only country that is not cooperating is Ethiopia. We are continuing to talk to them, using the diplomatic approach. Yes, we are discussing military cooperation with Sudan. ... If it comes to a crisis, we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces in to block/sabotage the dam."

Assuming these STRATFOR emails accurately reflect what the Egyptian officials wrote and there is no explanation how a private American company even had access to such messages, it is important to note that they are more than two years old and Egypt has not bombed any dams in Ethiopia. To the extent the dispatch is accurate, it comes from a deposed Egyptian government. At the end of the article, a representative of the current Morsi government in Egypt is quoted as saying that the STRATFOR emails are hearsay "designed to disturb Egyptian-Ethiopian relations."

While Egyptian officials have on occasion made threatening comments about Ethiopia's use of Nile River tributaries dating back to the Anwar Sadat government, the heading for this article is a case of gross exaggeration.

Click here to read the article.

The Nile Water Issue

One of the most important water issues in the world today concerns the Nile. The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in September 2012 a paper that examines the implications of recent efforts to avoid conflict and manage and utilize the Nile by the ten riparian countries. The paper argues that it is imperative to give priority to the most contentious areas of the Nile Basin by capitalizing on the current opportunities presented by Egypt's gestures of goodwill.

The author is Kidan Kiros Bitsue, a lecturer at the Centre for Federal Studies at Addis Ababa University and a PhD candidate in the College of Development Studies.

Click here to access the study.