Somaliland: Diplomatic Recognition Remains Elusive

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 June 2025 a 30-minute podcast titled "Somaliland's Moment?" with Guleid Ahmed Jama, lawyer and political commentator based in Hargeisa, and host Alan Boswell.  

The Somaliland-Ethiopia memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in 2024 was never clear to most Somalilanders.  There was subsequently a change of government in Somaliland, making the situation even less clear although Hargeisa continues to seek diplomatic recognition.  In any event, the MOU is now on a back burner and negotiations with Ethiopia concerning the MOU have not yet resumed under the new government in Hargeisa.

The more recent question is whether the Trump administration is willing to give Somaliland diplomatic recognition in exchange for military use of air and port facilities at Berbera on Somaliland's coast.  The US military has expressed interest but there has been no movement so far by the Trump administration.  

The Changing Shape of Chinese Investment in Africa

 The Center for Global Development published in June 2025 a paper titled "China's Investment Pivot and Africa's Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African 'Flying Geese'?" by Charles Kenny.  

The paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa as it evolves from largescale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing.  It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and Africa; and the potential response of Western countries.  

West African Military Coups Widen Opportunities/Challenges for China

 The London School of Economics and Political Science blog posted on 11 June 2025 a commentary titled "Military Takeovers in West Africa Are Reshaping Diplomatic Ties" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah and Christian Kaunert, both at Dublin City University.  

Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have upended democratic governance, enabling China to deepen economic and strategic engagement as Western influence wanes.  At the same time, there is growing concern over China's policies on debt and labor relations.

Challenges Faced by American Researching Chinese Projects in Uganda

 Global China Pulse posted on 22 May 2025 a commentary titled "After Access: The Complexities of Reflexivity in Global China Fieldwork" by Robert Wyrod, University of Colorado Boulder. 

This is a fascinating account of interviewing Chinese managers of Chinese-funded projects in Uganda by a privileged, white American, male academic during a period of deteriorating US-China relations.  It underscores the challenges of doing academic research in difficult circumstances.  

The Trump Administration's Attack on Africa

 The Hill published on 17 June 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Attack on USAID Is Only Part of His Attack on Africa" by Brian Atwood, former USAID administrator.

The Trump administration is adopting policies that will exacerbate Africa's challenges and make it poorer and more dangerous.  

China's Power Play in the Indian Ocean

 Bloomberg posted on 14 June 2025 a 12-minute video titled "China's Power Play in the Indian Ocean."

The focus of the video is on growing India-China competition in the Indian Ocean.  The dramatic expansion of Chinese military power in the region is seen as threatening to India.  It comes at a time when the United States is reducing its influence in the region.  

China Looks to Reenter Libyan Infrastructure Market

 Libya Review published on 16 June 2025 an article titled "China's CHEC Considers Expanding Operations in Libya."

The China Harbour Engineering Company is looking at engaging in the third phase of Libya's Sirte Ports development by providing Chinese expertise in deepwater berth construction and port operations.  

Impact of Doctors' Strike in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 June 2025 a commentary titled "Anatomy of Defiance: Ethiopia's Medics Say Enough" by Worku Abera, Dawson College in Montreal.

A nationwide doctors' strike in Ethiopia has unsettled the government and raised fears other public servants may follow their example.  The strike is over both salaries and a demand for dignity, justice, and reform.  

China-US Competition in Africa: Who's Winning?

 iStocks posted on You Tube on 15 June 2025 a 23-minute video titled "Africa Is Becoming the New Battleground: US vs China -- Who's Winning?"

There is a full-on competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa.  This is a story of power and leverage between Washington and Beijing.  The engagement models used in Africa by China and the US are very different. Beijing provides loans, construction companies, and often its own labor to build infrastructure projects across the continent.  They are fast and avoid political conditionality but add to African debt.  The US is transactional and wants to make deals by mobilizing the private sector.  But they are slow, and the private sector often has difficulty raising financing. 

For many years the US was the preferred partner of most African countries, but recent polls show that China is now the preferred partner.  Recent US policy decisions affecting Africa have also harmed its reputation as a reliable partner.  In the final analysis, Africans don't want to choose between China and the US, but they want the best deal they can get from both partners and others, including the European Union, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea.  

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Readying for Inauguration

 Freeman's Africa and the World posted on 13 June 2025 an article titled "Completed Ethiopia Dam -- GERD Can Power East African Nations" by Lawrence Freeman.  

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is scheduled to be inaugurated in September, making it the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa and the 17th largest in the world.  It will have the capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of electricity.  In addition to providing power for Ethiopia, it will sell power to Djibouti, Kenya, Sudan, and possibly Tanzania.  

US, China, Africa, and Critical Minerals

 The Atlantic Council published on 6 June 2025 a study titled "Keeping China at Bay and Critical Minerals Stocked: The Case for US-Africa Defense Collaboration" by Alexsandra Gadzala Tirziu.  

Africa holds one-third of the world's known mineral resources, including 80 percent of platinum and chromium, 47 percent of cobalt, and 21 percent of graphite.  Of the 50 minerals designated as critical by the US Geological Service, 32 are found in Africa.  China accounts for 85 percent of global mineral processing capacity.

The US should help African nations develop their own domestic mineral processing capabilities to build their own self-sufficiency and to diminish China's lock on processing capacity.  This could contribute to a reliable supply source of critical minerals for the Unites States.  It could also strengthen US security alliances with African countries.  

Russia Transitions Wagner Group to Africa Corps in Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 12 June 2025 an analysis titled "Wagner Out, Africa Corps In" by Liam Karr and Kathryn Tyson.  

Russia's Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali and transitioned the Russian military presence to the Africa Corps.  As the Wagner Group pulls out of Mali, al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated insurgents are stronger than ever.  

Russia is also trying to transition from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps in the Central African Republic.  Responsibility for Russian operations in Africa will now rest squarely with the Kremlin although Russian billionaire Gennady Timchenko may play a key role in the operations.  

China Expands Security Engagements in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 June 2025 an analysis titled "China Widening Its Influence in Africa through Expanded Security Engagements" by Paul Nantulya.

China is expanding across Africa its security relationships through training, military exercises, arms sales, party-to-party cooperation, and weapons production.  About 70 percent of African countries now operate Chinese armored vehicles.  Some 40 African countries have a relationship with Chinese public security agencies.  

Current Al-Shabaab Area of Operations in Somalia

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 10 June 2025 an analysis titled "Al Shabab's Area of Operation" by Kathryn Tyson.  

Since January 2025, al-Shabaab has reentered large swaths of territory in central Somalia which Somali security forces had retaken during a counterterrorism campaign in 2022.  

China to Eliminate Tariffs on African Imports While US Increases Them

 The Voice of Africa published on 12 June 2025 an article titled "China Set to Eliminate All Tariffs on African Imports: A New Chapter in Global Trade."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced on 11 June that China is prepared to grant zero-tariff treatment to 100 percent of taxable products from all 53 African countries with which it has formal relations.  Only Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan, is excepted.  Wang contrasted China's policy with US plans to increase tariffs on African imports.

Comment:  While this could constitute an important change in the dynamics of China-Africa trade, the fact remains that China maintains a large and long-standing trade surplus with all of Africa.  On the other hand, over the last ten years the United States has had a modest trade deficit with all of Africa.  

Former Leader of Ethiopia's Tigray Region Admits to Outrageous Crimes

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 June 2025 a commentary titled "Justice on Trial in Ethiopia after Public Confessions" by Ephrem B. Hidug, former Ethiopian diplomat.

Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, admitted in a public interview to an astonishing list of crimes committed during the Tigray war.  Getachew's interview puts Ethiopia's justice system on trial just as much as it puts him under scrutiny.  

China and South Africa Oppose US Bullying

 The South China Morning Post published on 10 June 2025 an article titled "China's Defence Chief Dong Jun Backs South Africa against 'Bullying' amid US Tensions" by Enoch Wong. 

South Africa's head of the National Defense Force met in Beijing with the Chinese Defense Minister, Dong Jun, who promised to work with South Africa to oppose bullying, a veiled reference to the United States.  

Algeria Scrubs Huge Chinese Port Project

Yabiladi.com posted on 9 June 2025 an article titled "Algeria Withdraws Major Port Project from China, Is the Sahara Question the Reason?" by Mohammed Jaabouk. 

Algeria has pulled out of a multi-billion project first announced in 2015 for China to finance, build, manage, and partially own the huge El Hamdania port.  It was initially launched as a rival to Morocco's Tanger-Med port.  The article suggests China's position on the controversial Western Sahara issue may have something to do with the cancellation.

Comment:  This project has been in doubt for years and likely has more to do with Algeria's ability to pay for the project and its economic viability.  

Chinese Corporation Explores Cooperation with Ghana's Navy

 Military Africa published on 8 June 2025 an article titled "CATIC Visits Ghana Navy to Explore Cooperation, Enhance Maritime Capabilities" by Ekene Lionel.

Executives from the China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) met recently with the chief of naval staff of the Ghana Navy.  This initial meeting could potentially evolve into a more formal cooperation agreement between CATIC and the Ghana Navy.  

Chinese Exports to Africa Soar; African Exports to China Up Slightly

 APA News published on 9 June 2025 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Surges 12.4% between January and May."

China's exports to Africa between January and May 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024 increased by 20.2 percent while African exports to China increased by only 1.6 percent.  Africa continues to export raw materials to China while importing manufactured goods from China.

Comment:  This exacerbates a long-standing trend of African trade deficits in the China-Africa relationship and African raw materials exported to China in exchange for value added goods.

An Heir Apparent in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.

The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir.  Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.  

China's Negotiating Strategy in Africa

 Routledge has just published a book titled China's Negotiating Mindset and Strategies: Historical and Cultural Foundations edited by Guy Oliver Faure and I. William Zartman.

Chapter 21, which I authored, is titled "China's Negotiating Strategy in Africa."  The other chapters cover a wide range of topics on China's strategy for negotiating business relations and geopolitics.  

African Students: China Wins and US Loses

 The New York Times published on 7 June 2025 an article titled "China's Quiet Win: Outmaneuvering U.S. for Africa's Future Leaders" by Abdi Latif Dahir.  

As the Trump administration tightens restrictions for international students to enter the United States, Africans increasingly are opting to study in China, attracted by government scholarships, affordable tuition, lower living costs, and easier entry requirements.  

Chinese and American Military Cooperation with Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 June 2025 an article titled "China's Increased Training of African Military, Arms Sales and Aid 'Concerns' US" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The United States is becoming increasingly concerned at the increase in military training that China is offering to African military personnel.  Coupled with growing Chinese arms sales and other military to military cooperation, it suggests Beijing has become more involved in African security issues.  

China's Malign Influence in Africa and US Counter Strategy

 The Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on 4 June 2025 titled "China's Malign Influence in Africa."  The senior Africa Bureau official in the State Department, Troy Fitrell, provided the testimony.

Responding to the title of the hearing, Fitrell denounced Beijing's assertive, government-backed strategies to capture African market share.  He said China's strategy for economic dominance in Africa relies on a centralized, state-directed, and nationally resourced approach to dominating global markets and strategic supply chains.

Fitrell devoted most of his prepared testimony to the Trump administration's strategy for Africa, which will focus on investment-led and trade-driven growth.  It will prioritize robust commercial engagement, recognizing and treating African nations as equal partners in trade and investment.  He then identified six targeted actions:

1.  Making commercial diplomacy a core priority across US embassies;

2.  Promoting private-sector-identified market reforms with African governments;

3.  Implementing high-quality infrastructure projects;

4.  Sending commercial diplomacy missions with private sector representatives;

5.  Connecting export-ready US companies with African opportunities; and

6.  Reforming US trade and financing tools to better compete with China's swift and risk-tolerant financing model.  

Fitrell rightly concludes that "the strategy's success relies on U.S. companies expanding into new markets and African partners enabling environments for transparent and lasting commerce."

Comment:  As someone who has been following African affairs since the early 1960s, including 37 years in the State Department and most of it in the Africa Bureau, there is nothing new about this strategy except perhaps the emphasis being put on it by the Trump administration.  But other administrations, especially the Reagan administration, also gave commercial diplomacy a high priority.  All of them were disappointed with the results in Africa.  In the final analysis, the strategy is highly dependent on the willingness of the American private sector to engage in Africa.  Private sector enthusiasm will be determined not only by the priority given to it by the Trump administration, but the tangible incentives offered by the US government.  This is where China has a big advantage.

Is the US government prepared to provide sufficient on the ground staffing at all embassies in Africa?  Will it increase resources for the US Export-Import Bank, US International Development Finance Corporation, and Millennium Challege Corporation?  Will high level Trump administration officials lead trade and investment missions to Africa?  If the response to all of these questions is affirmative, the strategy might make a difference.

But it does not help when the announcement of the Africa commercial strategy is immediately followed by a full or partial ban on travel to the United States by 10 African countries.  Even if they are not among the most important trade and investment prospects, it sends the wrong message to all of Africa that America is not really open for business.