Saturday, May 10, 2025

Has US Given Up on Preventing Wars in Horn of Africa?

 The New York Times published on 9 May 2025 a commentary titled "The Wars We Still Can Stop" by Cameron Hudson, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

As the Trump administration steps back from the Horn of Africa and guts existing diplomacy tools, it raises the question whether Washington has abdicated its peacemaking role in the region.  The author asks, "how many American warriors do we intend to commit to wars we could have stopped before they started?"

Friday, May 9, 2025

Cutting Positions at the State Department

The Government Executive published on 9 May 2025 an article titled "State Department Cuts Poised to Be More Severe than Previously Outlined with 3,400 Employees on the Chopping Block" by Eric Katz and David Dimolfetta. 

Beginning in early June, an estimated 3,400 civil and foreign service positions are expected to be cut at the State Department.  The reduction in force (RIF) is not expected to affect the Bureau of Consular Affairs, which issues passports and visas to the public, but this means that about 20 percent of all other positions will be eliminated.  The first round of cuts will only impact US domestic jobs.  Overseas cuts are expected to occur later.  

Voice of America and Sister Services Are a Shambles

 Rolling Stone published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "Voice of America Will Be Fed OAN's Far-right Coverage, Says Trump Admin" by Charisma Madarang.  

Kari Lake, the defeated Republican candidate for governor of Arizona who serves as the senior advisor of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), was put in charge of dismantling the Voice of America (VOA). 

She announced that the right-wing One America News (OAN) will provide newsfeed services free-of-charge to USAGM networks including VOA, Office of Cuba Broadcasting, and Radio Marti.  Fewer than 20 of more than 1,300 VOA personnel were permitted to enter their place of work earlier this week.

The Washington Post published on 9 May 2025 a commentary titled "It Has Come to This: The U.S. Will Broadcast One America News" by Marc Fisher.

The author concludes that the Trump administration is "going to replace the journalism of Voice of America with the slanted sycophancy of One America News," which "seems like a step into a disinformation abyss."  

Comment:  VOA has effectively been silenced, and the administration seems to want to shut it down entirely.  It is not clear who will put the OAN feed on the air and even less clear who will bother to listen to it.  

Is Houthi Ceasefire Just a Pretext for Rearming?

 Stars and Stripes published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "US Strikes Depleted Houthi Arsenal, But Militants Primed to Rearm, Analysts Say" by Lara Korte.  

After 7 weeks of US bombing, the Houthis reached an understanding with the Trump administration to stop attacks on Red Sea shipping in exchange for an end to US airstrikes.  Analysts say the Houthis consider the ceasefire a calculated tactical pause as they regroup, adapt, and rearm. In any event, a military defeat of the Houthis would require a ground operation.  

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Military Rule Is Not the Answer in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 8 May 2025 a commentary titled "Military Rule Is Not the Answer to Sudan's Conflict" by Suha Musa.

Neither the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces nor the Sudan Armed Forces is a viable option for governing Sudan.  Foreign partners must insist on a lasting peace in Sudan and amplify the voices of Sudanese civil society leaders.

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Extend Drone Attacks

 The East African published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "Drone Attacks Spread to Sudan's 'Safe Havens' as War Escalates" by Mawahib Abdallatif.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has launched drone attacks on parts of Sudan under Sudan Armed Forces control where they have not occurred in the past two years.  These attacks are adding to the humanitarian crisis in the country.  

How China Turned the Red Sea into a Strategic Trap for the US

 The Atlantic Council published on 5 May 2025 an analysis titled "How China Turned the Red Sea into a Strategic Trap for the US" by Fatima Abo Alasrar, Washington Center for Yemen Studies.

From the beginning, China made a deal with the Houthis to exempt Chinese-flagged and owned vessels from attack.  Chinese companies subsequently strengthened Houthi capabilities by providing satellite targeting data.  Beijing now portrays the crisis as revealing "United States' impotence" against "non-traditional opponents like the Houthis" while claiming US military intervention has "only triggered more resistance."

Shipping Companies in No Hurry to Return to Red Sea

 The Wall Street Journal published on 8 May 2025 an article titled "Shippers Are Skeptical of Trump's Truce with the Houthis" by Stephen Kalin, Costas Paris, and Benoit Faucon. 

Major container-shipping companies have no immediate plans to return to the Suez Canal/Red Sea following President Trump's announcement of an agreement with the Houthis to end attacks on Red Sea shipping. As long as the war in Gaza continues, shipping companies believe the situation is too dangerous.  Nor is it clear whether the ceasefire applies to all vessels or just those flying US and UK flags.  

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Large African Military Delegation Visits China

 The Sudan Times published on 6 May 2025 an article titled "African Military Officers Start 10-day Official Visit to China."

Nearly 100 senior military officers from over 40 African nations began a 10-day visit to China on 5 May.  The delegation will visit Beijing, Changsha, and Shaoshan.  The visit underscores China's soft power strategy of blending military diplomacy with development support.  

Nigerian Delegation Visits China to Look at Air Defense Systems

 Military Africa posted on 1 May 2025 an article titled "Nigeria Looks to China's Norinco to Bolster Fledging Air Defence Structure" by Ekene Lionel.

A high-level delegation from the Nigerian Air Force recently visited China to look at updating its radar coverage and air defense systems.  Nigeria has an ongoing defense relationship with Norinco and has procured a wide variety of combat systems from China, which is looking to expand its military and economic influence in the country.

China and Egypt Conclude Joint Air Force Exercise

 Business Insider Africa published on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Chinese Fighter Jets Soar over Egypt in First Ever Joint Military Drills" by Adekunle Agbetiloye.

Egypt and China have just completed a joint air force exercise over the Sahara Desert involving fighter jets, helicopters, and transport aircraft.  This is a first for China and Egypt and sends a signal to the United States, as it dismantles foreign aid and pulls back from Africa that Egypt is seeking to expand its security relationships.  

Drone Attacks on Port Sudan Continue

 Aljazeera published on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Port Sudan Explosions: Lifeline for Aid Comes under Attack for Fourth Day."

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has launched drone attacks for the past 4 days on Port Sudan, the temporary capital for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  Most aid for Sudan goes through Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  The SAF has accused the United Arab Emirates of arming the RSF.  

An America First Deal with the Houthis

 The Atlantic posted on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "An America First Deal with the Houthis."

The US has extracted itself from the conflict with the Houthis but not ended it.  The Houthis say they will continue to strike Israel, and it is not clear what their policy is concerning non-US and UK-flagged ships.  

What Has the US Understanding with the Houthis Accomplished?

 The reason.com, a libertarian magazine, posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Gets Bored with the War in Yemen" by Matthew Petti.  

President Trump claimed victory over the Houthis on 6 May, ensuring freedom of navigation through the Red Sea. A Houthi leader said, however, that direct attacks on Israel would continue.

Sourcing Journal posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Says Houthis Will Cease Attacks on Red Sea Shipping" by Glenn Taylor.

President Trump said the Houthis have told us that "they don't want to fight anymore."  He added "they have capitulated."  It remains unclear, however, if the Houthis will stop attacks on all international shipping or just American and UK-flagged vessels. There was no mention of ending attacks on Israel.  

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

More on US-Houthi Agreement

 Politico published on 6 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Announces US Will Stop Bombing Houthis" by Jack Detsch and Felicia Schwartz.  

President Trump described as a handshake agreement a willingness to stop bombing the Houthis if they no longer attack American ships.  A Houthi leader confirmed the agreement and Oman's foreign minister added that his country mediated talks between the United States and the Houthis.  

Upcoming Vote on South Sudan Arms Embargo

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "UN Readies for Critical Vote on South Sudan's Arms Embargo" by Maya Ungar.  

The UN Security Council will vote in late May on whether to renew the arms embargo on South Sudan for 12 months.  Even as the internal security situation deteriorates, the South Sudan government opposes the embargo.  The ICG argues that removing the arms embargo now could stoke escalating violence in South Sudan. 

Battle of Adwa and Ethiopian Unity

 Ethiopia Insight published on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "Adwa Is Not the Only Oppressive Ethiopian Myth" by Tarfassa W. Barooddee, a self-employed Oromo living in North America.

The conventional narrative describes the 1896 Battle of Adwa as a decisive triumph of a united African nation resisting European imperialism.  But the author argues that "this romanticized myth" obscures a harsher truth: victory at Adwa did not spare the subject peoples of the south from oppression and violence.  The author concludes that Ethiopian unity cannot be forged by manipulating history.  

Apparent US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal

 Reuters published on 6 May 2025 an article titled "Oman Says It Mediated Ceasefire between US, Yemen's Houthis."

President Trump said on 6 May the US will stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen after they agreed to stop attacking shipping in the Middle East.  Oman subsequently said it mediated a "ceasefire deal" between the Houthis and the United States.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Sudan Government Loses International Court Case Against UAE

 The Associated Press published on 5 May 2025 an article titled "The UN's Top Court Dismisses Sudan's Genocide Case Alleging the Emiratis Funded RSF Rebels" by Molly Quell.

The International Court of Justice in The Hague dismissed a case on procedural grounds brought by the government of Sudan accusing the UAE of breaching the Genocide Convention by arming and funding the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Houthis Continue Missile Launches; Israelis Strike Back

 CNN posted on 5 May 2025 an article titled "Israel Strikes Houthi Targets in Yemen for the First Time in Months, A Day After Tel Aviv Airport Attack" by Jeremy Diamond and Dana Karni.  

Israeli aircraft attacked Houthi targets in Yemen on 5 May following a strike by a Houthi missile on Tel Aviv airport.  So far, US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen have failed to stop Houthi missile and drone attacks aimed at international shipping and US naval ships in the Red Sea and against Israel.  

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Somali Piracy Is Returning to Region

 The Telegraph published on 4 May 2025 an article titled "Somali Pirates Use Red Sea Crisis to Stage Return" by Ben Farmer.

Illegal fishing and Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are driving a slow revival of Somali pirate attacks.  In 2025, three vessels have been captured so far by Somali pirates.  

Press Freedom Index: 10 African Countries Score Better than US

 Reporters without Borders posted recently its "RSF World Press Freedom Index 2025: Economic Fragility a Leading Threat to Press Freedom."

RSF ranked 180 countries for the 2025 index.  Ten African countries, led by South Africa, Namibia, and Cabo Verde scored better than the United States, ranked number 57, although Sub-Saharan Africa generally experienced a decline in press freedom.  The five lowest ranking countries were Eritrea, North Korea, China, Syria, and Iran.  

The 2025 RSF index shows that today's news media are caught between preserving their editorial independence and ensuring their economic survival.  

Saturday, May 3, 2025

What to Watch for as US Strikes Houthis in Yemen

 Newsweek published on 2 May 2025 an article titled "U.S. War on the Houthis: Five Things to Watch" by Amira El-Fekki.

US airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen is the first major military operation ordered by the current Trump administration.  The article identifies five key issues to watch for going forward.  

The Importance of Diego Garcia to US Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 21 April 2025 an analysis titled "How the UK-Mauritius Deal on Chagos Could Reshape US Military Strategy in the Indian Ocean" by Raghvendra Kumar.  

Diego Garcia hosts a joint Anglo-American military base with a deepwater port capable of berthing aircraft carriers, a long runway that enables deep-strike operations and accommodates heavy bombers and refueling aircraft, advanced satellite communication facilities, and strategically pre-positioned military support and supplies.

The Diego Garcia base, which most recently has been used to launch airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, remains critical to US military strategy in the Indian Ocean.  It provides the strategic depth necessary to deter aggression, defend US interests, restore freedom of navigation, and secure vital sea lines of communication.   It takes on added importance as China expands its military footprint in the Indian Ocean region.  

Friday, May 2, 2025

Security Concerns in Somalia

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 29 April 2025 an analysis titled "Assessment of Somalia's Security Landscape and Prospects of Counterterrorism Efforts."

Somalia is likely to face a continuing back-and-forth conflict situation with al-Shabaab terrorists.  This prospect decreases Somalia's ability to recover politically and economically.  It also raises the possibility of "Afghanization" should the balance of power shift in favor of al-Shabaab.