Saturday, January 3, 2026

Why Israel Recognized Somaliland

 ABC News posted on 31 December 2025 an article titled "The Strategic Plays that May Have Driven Israel's Recognition of Somaliland" by Eric Tlozek.

Israel probably recognized Somaliland for the following reasons: to establish a presence to monitor Houthi activity in nearby Yemen, as a location for possible resettlement of Gazans from Palestine, and to counter the influence of Turkiye in the region.

China-Africa Cooperation in 2026

 China Africa News published on 1 January 2026 an article titled "What's at Stake in 2026 for AU-China Cooperation?" by Cremilda Macuacua.

People-to-people exchanges, and training programs will highlight China-Africa relations in 2026.  There will be a focus on health care, food security, rural development, and expanded trade.

Friday, January 2, 2026

Egypt Strengthens Ties with Djibouti and Eritrea to Gain Leverage on Nile Water Issues with Ethiopia

The National published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "Egypt Finalises Deal to Develop Djibouti's Port in Bid to Pressure Ethiopia over Nile Dam" by Hamza Hendawi. 

Egypt will upgrade Djibouti's Doraleh port and Eritrea's strategic Red Sea port of Assab to increase their capacity and create berths for warships and small military contingents.  This is part of Egypt's strategy to build alliances with Ethiopia's neighbors and develop support for its position on Nile water disagreements.

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Israeli Recognition of Somaliland Based on Geostrategic Considerations

 The New Arab published on 1 January 2026 an article titled "Is Somaliland Becoming Israel's Foothold in the Red Sea?"

Israel's recognition of Somaliland gives it unparalleled access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which the article argues is the primary reason that Israel took this action.  It helps Israel monitor commercial shipping, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran's activities in the region.

Sudan Conflict Only Worsens in December

 Aljazeera published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "War in Sudan: Humanitarian Collapse, Fighting, Deadlock, December 2025" by Mohammad Mansour.

The humanitarian situation in Sudan deteriorated to a new low following a collapse of international funding, although the European Union launched an air bridge to deliver supplies to Darfur.  Kordofan province became the new epicenter for fighting as both the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces relied increasingly on the use of drones.  All attempts to end the conflict through negotiation appeared to be stalled.  

South African Naval Exercise Includes Warships from China, Russia, and Iran

 Defence Web published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "Multinational Naval Exercise between SA, Iran, China, and Russia Scheduled for January" by Guy Martin.

South Africa will host a naval exercise between 9 and 16 January for naval vessels from China, Russia, and Iran.  The exercise will include joint maritime safety operations, interoperability drills, and maritime protection serials.  This is the first time Iran will be included in the exercise.  As South Africa increases its military contacts with these three countries, it is reducing them with the United States.

China-US Competition in the DRC's Mineral Sector

 China Africa News published on 25 December 2025 an article titled "Congo's Tightrope: Navigating U.S.-China Rivalry for Mineral Wealth."

For decades, China has been the dominant force in Congolese mining benefiting from state-backed capital.  The United States has stepped up its engagement in the DRC mineral sector but faces significant Chinese structural advantages including entrenched refining capacity, long-term investment relationships, and an extensive operational presence.  

Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Why China Needs Africa

 Azerbaijan's News.az published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "Why China Needs Africa."

For Beijing, Africa has become a strategic key to the future global order.  China needs the critical minerals found in Africa and its markets to sell its goods.  Africa is also a massive testing ground for Chinese technology, especially digital products.  China wants to shape Africa, which is young, resource-rich, globally connected through corridors built by Beijing, and less dependent on Western institutions.  China is buying time and influence in Africa.  

Turkish Think Tank Sees Recalibration of China-Africa Relations in 2025

 The International Asia Today published on 30 December 2025 an analysis titled "The Great Recalibration: Why 2025 Changed the Rules of China-Africa Engagement" by Goktug Caliskan.

The year 2025 marked a qualitative shift in China-Africa relations from an infrastructure-driven partnership to a more complex combination of trade liberalization, industrial engagement, institutional coordination, and long-term policy alignment.  China-Africa relations are increasingly structured as a system rather than a sequence of transactions.  

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Creates Challenges in Horn of Africa (in Arabic)

 Egypt's Al Dostor published on 29 December 2025 an article titled "A Dangerous Gamble. Two International Experts: Israeli Recognition of 'Somaliland' Turns It into a Military Base."

The Arabic-language article draws on analysis by me and an analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington on the implications of Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland, the first such recognition by another country.  It raises the question of possible recognition by other countries and identifies some of the challenges and new strategic considerations in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.

Is China Winning Competition with US for Influence in Africa?

 Singapore's Chinese-language daily, Lianhe Zaobao, published on 30 November 2025 an article titled "Africa's Resource Battle: Has the China-US Contest Already Been Decided?" by Shen Yue. The article reports comments by Amit Jain, Director of the Nanyang Technical University-Singapore Business Federation, (NTU-SBF) Centre for African Studies.  NTU-SBF provided an English-language translation of the article.

The author increasingly sees China as taking the lead over the United States in Africa with critical minerals as the main attraction for both countries.  China is by far the largest trading partner with Africa, albeit heavily Chinese exports to the continent, while US trade with Africa has fallen sharply since its peak in 2009.  Foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and the US varies from year to year but in 2024 Chinese FDI in Africa totaled $3.4 billion while the US figure was a negative $2 billion due to disinvestment.  The US dollar is still the major currency in trade transactions, but the use of Chinese yuan is growing each year.

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

China Leads in Selling Solar Panels in Africa; US Pushes Fossil Fuels

 The New York Times published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "Cheap Solar Is Transforming Lives and Economies Across Africa" by Somini Sengupta and Gulshan Khan.

Rapidly falling prices for Chinese made solar panels and batteries are changing electricity production in Africa.  Solar now generates about 10 percent of South Africa's electricity-generating capacity.  Other African countries are following South Africa's lead while the United States focuses on fossil fuels.  China is becoming the world's leader in renewable energy.

China Strongly Opposes Israel's Recognition of Somaliland

 The South China Morning Post published on 29 December 2025 an article titled "China Hits Out at 'Support for Separatist Forces' After Israel Recognizes Somaliland" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China has strongly criticized Israel's recognition of Somaliland, which declared unilateral independence from Somalia in 1991.  Israel is the first country to formally recognize Somaliland.  China has taken a strong position on the Somaliland issue because it coincides with its position on Taiwan.  

Monday, December 29, 2025

Chinese Overproduction and American Tariffs Set Back African Industrialization

 ZNetwork published on 28 December 2025 an analysis titled "Africa Deindustrializes Due to China's Overproduction and Trump Tariffs" by Patrick Bond.

African industrialization has struggled for decades but is now further hindered by China's overproduction and massive exports to Africa and Trump's new tariffs on African exports and the end of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. 

China Strongly Opposes Recognition of Somaliland

 Turkey's Anadolu Agency posted on 29 December 2025 an article titled "China Opposes Israeli Recognition of Somaliland, Slams Foreign Interference" by Riyaz ul Khaliq.

China firmly opposed Israeli recognition of Somaliland, supported Somalia's territorial integrity, and said no country should encourage separatist forces.

Comment:  This statement on Somaliland supports China's policy of establishing control over Taiwan, which happens to maintain a liaison office in Hargeisa, capital of Somaliland, and has close relations with the government.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Changes Dynamic in Horn of Africa

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans, posted on 27 December 2025 an analysis titled "Israel's Recognition of Somaliland: A Game-Changer in Horn of Africa Geopolitics."

Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland is a monumental shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.  The analysis looks at the positions of Turkey, Russia, China, US, and Ethiopia with the latter playing a pivotal role in this evolving situation.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Ethiopia's Currency Gamble

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 December 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Currency Gamble" by Mintesinot Melaku.

The IMF encouraged Ethiopia to adopt a floating exchange rate.  The author explains why Ethiopia was ill-prepared to implement this currency reform program.  The core problem is the inability to generate sufficient foreign exchange income.

Israel First Country to Formally Recognize Somaliland

 The New York Times published on 26 December 2025 an article titled "Israel Becomes the First Nation to Recognize Somaliland" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Richard Perez-Pena.

Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland.  The government of Somalia called the recognition an "unlawful step" by Israel, adding that Somaliland is an integral part of Somalia.  The African Union took the same position.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel plans to offer extensive cooperation with Somaliland in agriculture, health, technology, and the economy.

Drones and Foreign Arms Transfers Fuel Sudan's War

 The UN Political and Peacebuilding Office posted on 22 December 2025 remarks titled "ASG Khiari Warns Indiscriminate Drone Strikes and Arms Flows Are Driving Sudan's War."

UN Assistant Secretary General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, Khaled Khiari, condemned the use of drones and foreign supply of increasingly sophisticated and deadly weapons to the belligerents in Sudan's civil war.  Calls to end these flows have gone unheeded and there has been no accountability.  

Friday, December 26, 2025

Negotiated End to Sudan Conflict Appears More Intractable

 Aljazeera published on 25 December 2025 an article titled "'No Negotiations, No Truce' with RSF, Says Senior Sudan Official" by Maziar Motamedi.

A senior official in Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council has ruled out any negotiations with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  All current efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict appear to be stalled.  

Thursday, December 25, 2025

Chinese Admiral Zheng He's Visits to African Shores in 15th Century

 The South China Morning Post published on 25 December 2025 an article titled "Exhibition Traces China's Long Links with Kenya from Admiral Zheng He to Belt and Road" by Jevans Nyabiage.

During the Ming dynasty, Chinese Admiral Zheng He's fleet visited the East African coast in the 1400s.  China often refers to these voyages to reinforce a long relationship with Africa, although it was then interrupted and Chinese naval ships did not return to Africa until 2000.


China Takes Lead in African Digital Development

 South Africa's The Star published on 21 December 2025 an article titled "Empowering Africa: How China's Tech Cooperation Fuels Progress" by Gideon Chitanga.

The article argues that Chinese government and companies have become critical partners in the development of Africa's digital systems and information and communications technology.  For example, Huawei has constructed an estimated 70 percent of Africa's 4-G networks.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Bank of China and Ecobank Establish Relationship

 Econfin Agency posted on 24 December 2025 an article titled "Ecobank, Bank of China Sign MOU to Strengthen China-Africa Trade Flows" by Sandrine Gaingne.

Pan-Africa banking group Ecobank and Bank of China (Mauritius) signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen the ties and facilitate economic exchanges between China and Africa.  

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Sudan's Collapse and Elusive Peace

 The International Crisis Group posted on 23 December 2025 a one-hour podcast titled "Reflecting on Sudan's Collapse and Elusive Peace Process" by Comfort Ero and Alex de Waal with Yasmine Farouk.

Sudanese polarization and alienation of society in Sudan now makes peace unusually hard.  Sudan has effectively collapsed as a recognizable state.  There can only be a solution at the international level, making it more difficult to resolve.  Sudan is now an international civil war.  The personal involvement of President Trump in resolving the Sudan conflict increasingly appears not to be useful.  

Pros and Cons of China-supplied Facial Recognition in Cameroon

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 21 December 2025 an article titled "Cameroon Goes All In on Chinese Safe Cities, but at What Cost?"

Huawei is providing up to 24,000 CCTV cameras nationwide.  Facial recognition is a key part of the program.  The system is equipped with AI and predictive analytics capabilities, purportedly to detect behavior deemed harmful by the government.