Russia's Africa Corps Encounters Limits

 The CTC Sentinel published in December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa Corps: Has Russia Hit a Ceiling in Africa?" by Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens.  

Russia's Africa Corps deployment in Africa's Sahel region has done little to curb jihadi violence.  It is not even clear that Moscow has a Sahel strategy. Russia's recent setback in Syria will make success in the Sahel even more questionable.  The Africa Corps is encountering significant challenges.  In Niger and Burkina Faso, the Africa Corps looks more like a Praetorian Guard to keep military regime leaders in power.  

Ethiopia's Economic Reform Program Faces Serious Challenges

 Foreign Policy posted n 19 December 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Precarious Economic Reforms" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's economic reform package is "fraught with jeopardy."  Political instability and a history of foreign investors who have been burned in Ethiopia does not bode well for the program.  

Yemen's Houthi Rebels Expand Ties into Horn of Africa

 The CTC Sentinel published in December 2024 an analysis titled "Looking West: The Houthis' Expanding Footprint in the Horn of Africa" by Michael Horton.  

The Yemen-based Houthi rebels are solidifying ties with al-Shabaab and arms smugglers that operate in Somalia and Puntland.  The Houthis are also improving their relations with al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, which is aligned with al-Shabaab.  

China and US Pursue Different Approach to Somaliland

 The South China Morning Post published on 19 December 2024 an article titled "China Stands Behind Somalia amid US Push for Somaliland Recognition" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China's special envoy for the Horn of Africa visited Mogadishu to assure the Somali government of Beijing's support as reports persist that the incoming Trump administration may recognize the independence of Somaliland.  

Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Crisis but Al-Shabaab May Still Benefit

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published on 18 December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa File Special Edition: Ankara Declaration Reduces Ethiopia-Somalia Tensions but Leaves Unresolved Gaps" by Kathryn Tyson and Liam Karr.

Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on December 11 to work toward securing Ethiopian commercial access to the sea as part of a Turkish-mediated Ankara Declaration.  Ethiopia will likely withdraw from or at least pause its controversial naval base deal with breakaway Somaliland.  This, in turn, may result in a reversal by Somalia to exclude Ethiopian troops from the new African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.  Nevertheless, the al-Shabaab terrorist organization could still benefit from these developments.  

Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping in 2025

 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 16 December 2024 an analysis titled "Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025" by Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi. 

A ceasefire in Gaza could pave the way for a diplomatic solution to the Houthi Red Sea crisis.  On the other hand, a tough policy towards Iran by the Trump administration could result in more attacks on commercial shipping in the region.  

Trump Administration and Future of Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2024 a commentary titled "Will the New Trump Administration Act on Tigray?" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.

The author speculates on the policy the Trump administration will pursue vis-a-vis Ethiopia, concluding it will not vary much from Trump's first administration but may have an even greater focus on countering Russia and China in Ethiopia and Africa generally.  

Chinese/European Oil Project in Uganda Experiences Human Rights Abuses (in Chinese)

 Radio Free Asia published on 17 December 2024 an article titled "CNOOC East Africa Oil Exploitation: Forced Evictions, Sexual Violence and Human Rights Abuses" (in Chinese) by Tang Yuanyuan.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation and TotalEnergies are engaged in a major oil development project in Uganda that has been accused of numerous human rights abuses.  

China's Role in Libya

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 December 2024 an analysis titled "Calculations and Future of China's Role in Libya" by Bilal Abdullah.  

The author concluded that China's return to Libya is primarily driven by development and reconstruction efforts, with a noticeable effort to balance ties between authorities in the east and west of the country.  China also has political and military interests, though these are not currently central to its policy.

US Seeks Tougher Measures against Yemen's Houthi Rebels

 The Guardian published on 16 December 2024 an article titled "US Seeks Stronger UN Powers to Intercept Red Sea Shipments to Yemen's Houthis" by Patrick Wintour.  

The United States is seeking global support to give the UN clearer powers to interdict ships in the Red Sea heading for Houthi-controlled Yemen ports in an effort to weaken their ability to conduct attacks on international shipping.  The US is also considering redesignating the Houthis as a terrorist group.  

US Special Envoy for Sudan Warns Country Headed for Partition

 The Irish Times published on 13 December 2024 an article titled "Sudan War Pushing Country towards Partition, US Envoy Says" by David Pilling.

According to US envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, Sudan is at risk of breaking apart or becoming a "failed state" as foreign powers stoke a war that continues for decades and exacerbates an already massive humanitarian catastrophe.  

Africa and the Trump Administration: Round Two

 The Atlantic Council published on 13 December 2024 a commentary titled "What Trump's Next Presidency Will Mean for Africa" by Rama Yade.

This analysis is less about what the Trump administration will do in Africa in a second term than what it did or did not do in the first term.  The author argues, however, that Africa has more geopolitical interest for the United States today than it did during Trump's first term.  

Will China Rely Increasingly on Private Companies for Security in Africa?

 Liechtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services published on 6 December 2024 a commentary titled "China's Military and Private Security Inroads in Africa" by Frederica Saini Fasanotti.  

As Chinese nationals residing and working in Africa face larger numbers of security threats, the author suggests China will turn increasingly to private security companies to protect them.

A Pro-China View of Great Power Competition in Africa

 China-US Focus published on 13 December 2024 a commentary titled "China and Africa, Rekindling the Fates of Global Power" by Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, The University of Hong Kong, and Mohamed Ibrahim Hafez, General Authority for Investment and Free Zones in Egypt.  

This highly sympathetic view of China concludes that in the contest for great power influence in Africa, "China's pragmatic vision steadily undermines the West's traditional partnership models" while Beijing's competitors are pursuing deeply flawed polices. 

An Analysis of Houthi Attacks on International Shipping

 The International Institute of Strategic Studies published in December 2024 a research paper titled "Navigating Troubled Waters: The Houthis' Campaign in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden" by Wolf-Christian Paes, Edward Beales, Fabian Hinz, and Albert Vidal Ribe.

The paper examines the Houthis' attacks on ships since November 2023 and the international military responses, as well as the economic impact of the crisis.  It also considers the Houthis' arsenal and the smuggling of weapons and their components to Yemen.  

Although most attacks have missed or did little damage, the Houthis have sunk two ships, and four sailors have lost their lives.  The economic impact of the crisis on global supply lines has been more limited than was first anticipated.  After twelve months of sustained attacks on Western shipping, the current response by the international community has failed to reach its stated goals.  

The UAE Casts Curious Shadow in Africa

 The Geneva-based The Responsible Security Association published on 4 December 2024 a commentary titled "Casting a Shadow: The UAE in Africa" by Raphael Parens, Foreign Policy Research Institute.  

The UAE is heavily involved in civil wars in Libya and Sudan.  Illicit gold flows through Abu Dhabi fund armed groups, mercenaries, and juntas in West Africa.  The UAE may even be considering establishing its own "foreign legions," drawing from the examples of the Russian Wagner Group and the French Foreign Legion to build the country's brand of aggressive foreign involvement.  

Succeeding with Chinese Car Sales in Africa

 The China Global South Project (CGSP) published on 12 December 2024 a Q & A titled "What It's Going to Take for Chinese Car Brands to Succeed in Africa" with CGSP China editor Han Zhen and Jimmy Ho, co-founder of Guangzhou-based automotive export service Autoworld.  

Selling cars in Africa isn't easy given the small regional market and its enormous diversity.  Car buyers in Ghana, for example, are very different from those in South Africa, Morocco, and Mozambique.  Beyond consumer preferences, there are challenges ranging from different countries' import regulations, building sales/service networks, and sustaining a workforce that can promote the kind of long-term support for an auto brand to thrive in some of the world's most unpredictable markets.  African consumers often value durability and practicality over other features.

Ethiopia and Somalia Reach Tentative Agreement on Port Access

 Deutsche Welle published on 11 December 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia, Somalia Reach Compromise to End Feud, Turkey Says."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met in Ankara on 11 December at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to work closely together on commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements that would ensure Ethiopia's "reliable, safe and sustainable" access to the sea "under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia."  Ethiopia and Somalia also agreed to begin technical talks no later than the end of February 2025 and to complete them within four months.

Comment:  No direct mention seems to have been made of Ethiopia's earlier MOU with Somaliland for a military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.  Nor was Somaliland involved in the discussions.  This appears to be an effort by Ethiopia to resolve serious differences with Somalia while putting aside or ever annulling the MOU with Somaliland.  

Fighting Climate Change in Somalia's Conflict Zones

 The International Crisis Group published on 10 December 2024 a study titled "Fighting Climate Change in Somalia's Conflict Zones."

Somalia experienced a prolonged, extreme drought between 2020 and 2023 that caused a humanitarian emergency and fueled conflict with the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab.  Local resentment of the group's harsh methods during severe water shortages eventually led to a military offensive that put the insurgents on the back foot.

In Somalia, climate change and conflict are increasingly intertwined.  Al-Shabaab uses access to water and other natural resources to levy taxes on herders and farmers, as well as to punish communities that resist its control.  But it has also proven persuadable by social pressure during climate shocks.

Peaceful Somaliland Elections but Serious Neighborhood Strains

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 December 2024 an analysis titled "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains" by Omar Mahmood.  

Somaliland held presidential elections in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent.  While the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth.  Serious issues also remain involving neighboring Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.  

Somali Pirates Seize Chinese Fishing Vessel and Demand Ransom

 Agence France-Presse published on 8 December 2024 an article titled "Somali Pirates Demand Ranson for Chinese Vessel."

Persons who had been hired to protect the fishing boat were joined by additional pirates and then demanded ransom for the ship's release.  As security has improved along the Somali coast, it is not clear that the pirates will find a safe haven.

China and Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 December 2024 an article titled "Maritime Threats High on Agenda as Chinese Navy Hosts Gulf of Guinea Security Forum" by Seong Hyeon Choi.

China hosted a two-day forum on the security situation in the Gulf of Guinea in Shanghai for representative of 18 countries from the region.

The Growing Militarization of China's Africa Policy

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 2 December 2024 a paper titled "The Growing Militarization of China's Africa Policy" by Paul Nantulya.

The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has increasingly taken on military dimensions.  The PLA's growing involvement in FOCAC speaks to the militarization of certain aspects of China's Africa policy. 

China's military strategy in Africa is advancing its goal of achieving "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049." To that end, the PLA is tasked with becoming a "world-class force" by 2030 with the requisite combat and power projection capabilities to defend China's expanding global interests and win future wars closer to home.

Economist Reporter Discusses Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed

 The Hundred, a political newsletter, posted on 3 December 2024 an interview titled "Ethiopia and Abiy Ahmed" by Tom Gardner, former Economist reporter based in Addis Ababa and now assigned to Nairobi.  

This critical assessment of Prime Minister Abiy helps explain why Gardner was expelled from Ethiopia.  

US-China Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals

 National Public Radio posted on 4 December 2024 an article titled "D.R. Congo's Mining Capital Is at the Heart of Biden's Bid to Counter China in Africa" by Emmet Livingstone.

A small mining town in the southern Democratic Republic of the Congo is at the center of US-China competition over critical minerals in Africa.