The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa published on 17 October 2024 an analysis titled "Nile River Basin Commission: Regional Strife Could Make a Difficult Task Impossible" by Moses Chrispus Okello, ISS.
Regional conflicts, especially those involving Somalia provoked by Ethiopia's memorandum of conversation with Somaliland, have complicated any attempt to reach agreement on Nile water issues by the Nile River Basin Commission.
Article 19, a UK-based international organization with 9 regional offices devoted to freedom of expression, posted on 18 April 2024 a report titled "The Digital Silk Road: China and the Rise of Digital Repression in the Indo-Pacific."
The report examines China's digital infrastructure and governance influence in Cambodia, Malaysia, Nepal, and Thailand. While the study does not deal with Africa, it offers lessons for China's digital engagement with the continent.
The report argues that assessing China's partnerships and what they mean for rising repression is vital to understanding China's ambitions to rewire the world and rewrite the rules that govern the digital space. By expanding its authoritarian model, China aims to ultimately supplant the tenets of internet freedom and rights-based principles of global digital governance.
The Diplomat published on 23 October 2024 a commentary titled "China's Battle for Narratives in Africa" by Samir Bhattacharya and Yuvvraj Singh, both with India's Observer Research Foundation.
China has built narratives to its advantage in Africa, a region that has increasingly become a theater of great power rivalry. China's information strategy in Africa consists of three parts. First, it hosts and trains numerous African media professionals each year, teaching them to promote Chinese investments as a positive force. Second, China invests in local African media outlets, influencing their editorial practices to align with the Chinese narrative. Third, China sells technology to African governments that enables tighter control over digital information, including blocking websites and shutting down internet access.
The European Hub for Contemporary China posted on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "China's Security Engagement with Africa & the 'Global South' Narrative" by Fatoumata Diallo and Maud Deschamps.
As African countries have grown increasingly disillusioned with Western security engagement, China has progressively assumed a more assertive role in African security, shifting from a norm-taker to a norm-shaper approach. China's influence presents challenges for the EU's engagement in Africa, necessitating a reassessment of its approach to security cooperation with African nations
War on the Rocks published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Will China Intervene Directly to Protect Its Investments in Africa?" by Jonathan Ping, Bond University Australia, and Joel Odota, researcher on China-Africa.
China's increased focus on security raises questions about its longstanding policy of non-interference in African states' internal affairs. In areas of localized instability that threaten Chinese interests, China may have to resort to direct military involvement. The authors suggest China is pursuing an "increasingly neocolonial approach" that "may ultimately undermine its non-interference policy."
Foreign Policy published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "How the U.N. Can Prevent Genocide in Sudan" by Romeo Dallaire and Shelly Whitman.
While a UN peacekeeping force in Sudan is not politically feasible at the moment, a multinational or African Union-led protection force with troops from willing countries could be mounted to protect civilians. Initially, it could establish safe zones or safe corridors for civilians to facilitate the delivery of emergency aid.
Agence France-Presse published on 24 October 2024 an article titled "East DR Congo Grapples with Chinese Gold Mining Firms" by Camille Laffont.
Hundreds of foreign companies, most of them Chinese-owned, are mining gold in the Democratic Republic of Congo often without permits and without declaring profits. Local authorities are trying to crack down on the illegal practices.
Al-Monitor published on 20 October 2024 an article titled "What's Behind China's Deepening Engagement with Morocco?" by Sabena Siddiqui.
Chinese companies are winning contracts to expand Morocco's high speed rail system and signed a $6.4 billion memorandum of understanding to construct an EV battery "gigafactory" near Rabat. There is growing Chinese investment in Morocco's ICT sector. In 2022, China became Morocco's third largest trading partner.
The Daily Maverick published on 17 October 2024 an article titled "Diplomatic Row Looms after South African Government Demands That Taiwan Move Its Office Out of Pretoria" by Peter Fabricius.
The article provides additional background on the decision by South Africa, at the request of China, that Taiwan move its "Taipei Liaison Office" from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center of Johannesburg.
War on the Rocks published on 24 October 2024 a commentary titled "Russian Roulette on the Red Sea" by Ari Heistein, advisor to Israeli startups, and Daniel Rakov, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Russia has shifted its strategy on Yemen from neutral to a more pro-Houthi position in order to cement ties with Iran and to encourage a potential partner for a global anti-Western coalition.
The Wall Street Journal published on 24 October 2024 an article titled "Russia Provided Targeting Data for Houthi Assault on Global Shipping" by Benoit Faucon and Thomas Grove.
Using satellite data, Russia provided Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with targeting information against international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Reuters published on 23 October 2024 an article titled "Exclusive: Plane Downed in Darfur with Suspected Russian Crew Was Supplying Army, Rivals Say" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Reade Levinson, and Filipp Lebedev.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shot down a Russian cargo plane outside El Fasher in Darfur that the RSF claims was transporting supplies to the besieged Sudan Armed Forces. Russian nationals crewed the plane.
Comment: Russia's role in Sudan's civil war has been murky for more than a year. Russia's Wagner Group has a long history of collaborating with the RSF in Darfur but more recently Moscow has been linked to support for the Sudan Armed Forces. It is not clear if the downed plane is tied to the Russian government or is a private mercenary action.
The Washington Post published on 21 October 2024 an article titled "BRICS Is Key to Putin's Fight against the U.S. Not All Members Agree" by Robyn Dixon, Katharine Houreld, Francesca Ebel, and Karishma Mehrotra.
This is a particularly good analysis of the BRICS as it meets this week in Russia. This is the first gathering since the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) added Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to its membership.
Russia and China envisage the BRICS as an anti-West organization to overturn the US-led international order. Brazil, India, and South Africa have different objectives. The addition of new members further complicates the purpose of the organization. The article concludes that "expansion of the group has fueled internal tensions, diluting the clout of the original founders and entrenching China's dominance."
The Associated Press published on 22 October 2024 an article titled "Taiwan Rejects South African Demand to Move Its Representative Office from Capital" by Christopher Bodeen.
Taiwan has rejected South Africa's demand that it moves its liaison office in the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center of Johannesburg, arguing this would violate a 1997 agreement between the two sides on the location of their mutual representative offices.
Foreign Policy published on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Lives on in China" by Alessandro Arduino.
Judging by social media comments, China's leading security pundits are enamored by Russian Wagner Group's bravado and believe China's approach to the protection of Chinese interests is too passive. They see Wagner as the model for Chinese private security companies protecting projects across the globe in high-risk areas.
The US Army War College published on 9 October 2024 a paper titled "Peace and Unity: China's Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania" by Jake Vartanian.
The paper outlines the July/August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian exercise Peace Unity, which involved elements of the Tanzanian People's Defense Forces and the Mozambique Armed Forces in a land phase and a sea phase.
The author concluded that the PLA has consolidated its military foothold in Tanzania, including a pro-PLA and pro-Chinese Communist Party sentiment through military aid and PLA-sponsored professional military education. Tanzania also serves as an ideal proving ground for the PLA to execute military essential tasks in land operations and to test its joint expeditionary capabilities in an operational environment well beyond its borders.
Agence France Presse posted on 18 October 2024 an article titled "Tawan Blames China for S. Africa's Order to Move Liaison Office."
South Africa has asked Taiwan to move its "Taipei Liaison Office" from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center of Johannesburg and rebrand it as a trade office. At the same time, the South African foreign ministry said it is rebranding the "South African Liaison Office" in Taipei as a trade office. Beijing responded that South Africa made the "right decision."
Comment: Beijing does not object to Taipei having trade offices outside political capitals, but strongly opposes any Taiwan office in another country's political capital. China certainly put pressure on South Africa to make these changes.
Reuters published on 18 October 2024 an investigative report titled "UN Food Agency Failed to Act as U.S. Aid Was Looted in Ethiopia" by Giulia Paravicini, Steve Stecklow, and Tiksa Negeri.
Thousands of tons of food aid provided by USAID to the World Food Program (WFP) were diverted from hungry Ethiopian civilians in Tigray Region in 2023 to the Ethiopian military, Eritrean soldiers, and Tigrayan forces. The authors allege that WFP staff chose to ignore the illegal diversions. As a result, USAID temporarily shut down the assistance program.
The South China Morning Post published on 21 October 2024 an article titled "Ethiopian Dam Could Muddy the Waters of China's Position as a Global Leader" by Jevans Nyabiage.
Ethiopia and Egypt have long been disputing the construction by Addis Ababa of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Ethiopia and Egypt are also among the newest members of BRICS, which will soon meet in Russia. China, also a member of BRICS, has close ties with Ethiopia and Egypt and may be seen as the party for resolving the differences between the two. This is not a position that China relishes.
The Center for Naval Analyses published in October 2024 a study titled "The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC's Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks" by Tim Ditter, Kaia Haney, Tsun-Kai Tsai, and Carita Reid.
The study concludes that China could use Africa as the testing ground for its aspirations of security assistance globally through the implementation of the Global Security Initiative, potentially foreshadowing a future more globally active PLA military and security presence.
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 an analysis titled "China's Expanding Security Footprint in Africa: From Arms Transfers to Military Cooperation" by Alessandro Arduino, King's College London.
The author concludes that China's security strategy in Africa now consists of boosting military training and cooperation, increasing arms transfers, and strengthening its own private security sector.
Boston University's Global Development Policy Center posted on 15 October 2024 an analysis titled "Back in Action: The Ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Sees Renewed Relations and Development Prospects" by Tianyi Wu.
This is an analysis of the recently completed 9th FOCAC held in Beijing. This iteration of FOCAC suggested that China seeks to adjust its approach to Africa by forging strategic partnerships, compartmentalizing financial tools for development projects, and aligning its engagement with regional multilateral initiatives.
The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal published on 18 October 2024 a commentary titled "Why President Joe Biden Is Going to Africa--It's Not (Just) about China" by Tibor Nagy, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Trump administration.
President Joe Biden's belated trip to Angola in December is not only about competition with China, but also an effort to showcase an attractive Western development project in the Lobito Corridor that links Angola with the DRC and Zambia.
The Extractive Industries and Society journal published in September 2024 a study titled "Contention and Concessions: Exploring the Responsiveness of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa" by Jan Sandig, Jana Honke, and Claude Kabemba.
The study sought to understand how Chinese mining companies in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo respond to resistance from local communities, workers, and civil society groups. The authors concluded that the Chinese companies mostly conceded when facing sustained disruptive actions and pressure from hosting state elites and domestic and international non-governmental organizations.
The Daily Maverick published on 6 October 2024 a commentary titled "Ramaphosa's Russia Flirtation Imperils More than South Africa's Image" by Ray Hartley and Greg Mills, both with the Brenthurst Foundation.
The authors argue that an increasingly cozy relationship between President Cyril Ramaphosa, the African National Congress, and Russia risks South Africa's trade and investment with the West and may even open Pretoria to international legal action.
