Djibouti's Presidential Transition in April 2026

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 November 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti at a Crossroads: The Presidential Transition Crisis Ahead of April 2026 Elections."

President Ismail Omar Guelleh is considering amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term.  Three scenarios now face Djibouti's political future: (1) a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; (2) a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or (3) elections that result in an alternative candidate from the Issa clan assuming office.  

Only American Pressure Can End the Killing in Sudan

 Foreign Affairs published on 6 November 2025 a commentary titled "Terror Returns to Darfur: Only American Pressure Can Stop the Killing in Sudan" by Alex de Waal, World Peace Foundation.  

The author has studied and worked in Sudan for 40 years.  He concludes that "however terrible the war and its consequent famine in Sudan is today, it can still get much worse."  He argues that only strong US pressure and the personal engagement of President Trump can end the fighting.  

US-Nigeria Relations Hit a New Low

 The International Crisis Group published on 7 November 2025 an analysis titled "Why Is President Trump Threatening a Humanitarian Intervention in Nigeria?" by Nnamdi Obasi, the Crisis Group's senior adviser for Nigeria.  

The author reviews the background of President Trump's threat to engage militarily in Nigeria to protect Christians and describes the current situation in the country.  He points out that the US-Nigerian rift has brought bilateral ties to their lowest point since the 1970s, when the two countries were at odds on how to end apartheid in South Africa.

Reviving Sudan-South Sudan Dialogue on Abyei

 The UN Political and Peace Building Affairs Department posted on 5 November 2025 the remarks by special envoy of the Secretary General for the Horn of Africa Guang Cong to the UN Security Council on Sudan and South Sudan.

The civil war in Sudan is exacerbating the humanitarian situation in the disputed region of Abyei along the Sudan-South Sudan border and has interrupted negotiations for a settlement.  There are recent indications that both Sudan and South Sudan are willing to revive the African Union-led political process regarding Abyei's future.  

China-Africa Police Collaboration

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 9 November 2025 a commentary titled "China-Africa Police Collaboration."

Between 2018 and 2021, more than 2,000 African police and law enforcement officials received training at Chinese police academies.  The programs combined technical and operational training.  

Sudan Is in Free Fall

The New York Times published on 6 November 2025 a commentary titled "Sudan Is in Free Fall" by Eric A. Friedman, Suad Abdel Aziz, and John Prendergast. 

The most catastrophic phase of the conflict in Sudan is occurring in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur recently captured by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The most immediate step required to dial back the violence is for the UAE to stop supplying arms and support to the RSF.  

Is Piracy Returning to the Somali Coast?

 The Defense Post published on 7 November 2025 an article titled "Pirate Attack Off Somali Coast Fuels Fears of Comeback."

This past week there were 3 unsuccessful attacks on international shipping off Somalia by suspected pirates.  After a lengthy hiatus, it raises the question if piracy is returning to the region.  

Sudan: Journalists Go Missing in Darfur

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 6 November 2025 a news release titled "As Sudan's El Fasher Falls, the World Loses Sight of Its Journalists."

Since the Rapid Support Forces captured El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, from the Sudan Armed Forces, 13 journalists and media workers have gone missing.  

UAE Company Sends Mercenaries to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 The Sentry published in November 2025 an alert titled "Sudan Mercenaries Linked to Business Partner of Top UAE Bureaucrat."

Global Security Services Group is a UAE-registered company that supplies Columbian mercenaries to the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  The company has close ties with a senior UAE official.  

PLA Navy Assembles Six Ships in Gulf of Aden

 Newsweek published on 5 November 2025 an article titled "China's Navy Stages Show of Force Near Red Sea" by Ryan Chan.

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has been sending anti-piracy task forces to the Gulf of Aden since 2008.  The PLAN recently staged an unusual handover by bringing together at the same time the 3 ships of the 47th Escort Task Group and the 3 ships of the replacement 48th Escort Task Group.  Each Escort Task Group consisted of a destroyer, a frigate, and a supply ship.   

Trump's Nigeria Delusion

 World Politics Review published on 6 November 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Nigeria Delusion."

The commentary reviews Boko Haram's jihadi attacks in Nigeria and compares President Trump's proposed response similar to his striking of small boats off Venezuela.  The commentary concludes: "Trumps crusade in Nigeria is detached from a realistic understanding of what is happening there.  In this case it seems to be the product of lobbying from evangelical Christians among his MAGA base."

Why Is Trump Threatening Nigeria?

 The BBC published on 6 November 2025 an article titled "Are Christians Being Persecuted in Nigeria as Trump Claims?" by Olaronke Alo, Chiamaka Enendu, and Ijeoma Ndukwe.

President Trump's claim that Nigeria, which is about equally divided between Muslims and Christians, is persecuting Christians apparently stems from attacks in northern Nigeria by the jihadi organization Boko Haram that began in 2009.  The BBC looks at the numbers killed over the years and concludes Boko Haram probably has killed more Muslims than Christians.  In any event, the government of Nigeria strongly opposes Boko Haram.  

Stopping the Genocide in Sudan

 Foreign Policy posted on 5 November 2025 an article titled "How to Stop the Genocide in Sudan" by Mutasim Ali and Yonah Diamond, both with the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights.

The authors attribute the genocide in Sudan's Darfur region to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with the backing of the UAE.  They argue the International Criminal Court should consider issuing arrest warrants for leaders suspected of complicity in the genocide and other atrocities and begin sanctioning the UAE.

US Ends Protected Status for South Sudan Nationals

 CBS News posted on 5 November 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Ending Protected Status for South Sudanese Nationals" by Nicole Sganga.

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that the protected status of some 5,000 South Sudanese nationals living in the United States lapsed on 3 November, triggering a 60-day grace period to depart the United States or face deportation.  DHS is urging them to depart voluntarily in spite of difficult conditions in South Sudan.  This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy towards South Sudan.

Addressing the Crisis in Sudan

 Time published on 4 November 2025 an article titled "What the Crisis in Sudan Means for the World" by David Miliband, International Rescue Committee.

The author outlines 4 immediate steps that need to be taken to address the humanitarian emergency in Sudan.  They include safe passage for civilians, a full-scale humanitarian response, sustained diplomatic pressure by the Quad, and an end to the flow of arms into Sudan  

China Opposes US Threats against Nigeria

 Arise News, a Nigerian world news channel, posted on 4 November 2025 an article titled "China Warns US Against Interfering in Nigeria's Affairs after Trump's Military Threat" by Faridah Abdulkadiri.  

President Trump in a post on Truth Social requested the US Department of War to prepare for possible military action against Nigeria if it continues to allow the killing of Christians. The spokesperson for China's foreign ministry responded: "As Nigeria's comprehensive strategic partner, China firmly opposes any country using religion and human rights as an excuse to interfere in other countries internal affairs and threatening other countries with sanctions and force."

Comment:  President Trump's threat is a headscratcher.  Nigeria has faced a long-standing threat from the Boko Haram terrorist organization that has killed many Christians and Muslims in northern Nigeria. The government of Nigeria strongly opposes Boko Haram and has even received some American assistance over the years to counter the organization.   

UN Secretary General Says War in Sudan Spiraling Out of Control

 The Associated Press published on 4 November 2025 an article titled "UN Secretary General Says Sudan's War Is "Spiraling Out of Control'" by Jan Gambrell.

Just since the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, last week, an additional 71,000 Sudanese have been displaced and hundreds of civilians killed.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres decried the worsening situation and said external powers must stop sending arms into Sudan.  

Comment:  For more than two years, the United Nations has been unable to impose any kind of meaningful response in Sudan because the UN Security Council is unable to agree on a course of action.   

China's Ability to Impact Iron Ore Prices with Guinea Project

 Mining.com posted on 3 November 2025 an article titled "China's Massive African Mine Threatens to Upend Iron Ore Market" by Thomas Biesheuval and William Cloves.  

Simandou mine in Guinea is the world's largest untapped iron ore deposit with estimated reserves of 3 billion tons.  Its iron content is among the world's highest, and its development could impact the global market.  Chinese firms own most of the project.  China will be in a strong position to influence iron ore prices once production advances further.

Ethiopian/Eritrean Migrant Entrepreneurs Created Shopping District in South Africa

 The Conversation published on 26 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopian Quarter: How Migrants Have Shaped a Thriving Shopping District in South Africa's City of Gold" by Tanya Zack.

Entrepreneurial migrants from Ethiopia and Eritrea created a major shopping center in Johannesburg, South Africa, by repurposing abandoned buildings into more than 3,000 tiny shops that draw on global supply chains, mainly Chinese wholesalers.  The model has effectively turned the inner city into an inland port.   

China's Proxy Investment in Africa and the Need for Transparency

 Daily Caller News Foundation published on 4 November 2025 an article titled "It's Time to Wake Up--China Is Taking Over Africa but It's Not Too Late" by Jacob Choe, Eurasia Center's Asia Program director, and James Carter, Navigators Global.  

China is engaging in proxy investment through Dubai, Hong Kong, Mauritius, and Singapore in order to obscure its investing footprint in Africa.  There is no coordinated US effort to track Chinese proxy flows.  The authors call for creation of a US-Africa transparency task force to monitor these flows.  

China-Africa Relations: The Good, the Bad, and the Future

 TurningPoint, an independent, international, online magazine, posted on 29 October 2025 a commentary titled "Shaping Tomorrow: How China and Africa Are Negotiating a Shared Future" by Gaia Guatri, an independent documentarian.  

The author takes a long look in mostly Anglophone Africa at the positive and negative role China is playing.  She concludes that "Chinese capital has brought visible transformation: new railways, ports, and digital platforms; yet it has also incurred opaque debts, scarred landscapes, and fragile dependencies.  With the world's youngest population, Africa stands at a crossroads: it can turn this engagement into a springboard for renewal or slide deeper into a cycle of extraction and imbalance."

China-Africa Agricultural Cooperation

 Xinhua published on 28 October 2025 an article titled "Chinese, African Experts Join Force to Advance Collaboration on Food Security, Agricultural Modernization."

Experts representing the China-Africa Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Alliance met in Addis Ababa in October where they focused on cooperation concerning Africa's food security and agricultural modernization.  

Comment:  This is an area where USAID once had the lead in Africa.  Is the United States abandoning the field to China? 

China Expands Its Currency in Africa

 The Diplomat published on 3 November 2025 an analysis titled "Debt Relief as Currency Strategy: China's Renminbi Push in Africa" by Monique Taylor.

Kenya has converted part of its Chinese loans from U.S. dollars into renminbi (RMB), while Ethiopia is negotiating a similar arrangement.  This allows the borrowing country to reduce its debt servicing costs and permits China to turn debt distress into a strategic opening to expand the RMB's international use.

Ghana: European Parliament-China Trade Spat

 News Ghana published on 31 October 2025 an article titled "European Parliament Delegation Urges Ghana to Assess China Trade Carefully."

A 6-member European Parliament delegation on a visit to Ghana warned that China's trade policies could deepen trade imbalances and create dependencies that may not benefit Ghana's long-term development goals.  The Chinese embassy in Accra described the comments as false and misleading.  

Will the Courts Save American Foreign Aid?

 The New York Times published on 3 November 2025 an article titled "The Monthslong Legal Battle to Save Foreign Aid" by Zach Montague.

During the past 9 months, the Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and continues efforts to end most foreign aid.  The courts are the final obstacle to this effort as the US Congress remains AWOL.  The courts have not yet settled the core issues at stake although USAID no longer exists as an organization.