Two Chinese academics collaborated in a brief overview of China's policy towards Africa in the summer 2012 edition of The Newsletter. While it provides the standard account from a Chinese perspective of the China-Africa relationship, it concludes with a frank discussion of the challenges.
The authors are Zhang Qingmin, a professor at Peking University, and Song Wei, a PhD candidate at the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing.
Click here to read the article.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Exaggerated Nile Basin Posting
Michael Kelley and Robert Johnson posted on Business Insider on 13 October 2012 an article titled "STRATFOR: Egypt Is Prepared to Bomb All of Ethiopia's Nile Dams."
Business Insider is a U.S. business/entertainment news website based in New York. The information for the article comes from leaked internal emails written by STRATFOR, a reputable privately owned publisher of geopolitical analysis based in Austin, Texas.
The article quoted one alleged Egyptian dispatch dated 1 June 2010 that said a high-level Egyptian security/intel source, in regular contact with Mubarak and [then intelligence head Omar} Suleiman said: "The only country that is not cooperating is Ethiopia. We are continuing to talk to them, using the diplomatic approach. Yes, we are discussing military cooperation with Sudan. ... If it comes to a crisis, we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces in to block/sabotage the dam."
Assuming these STRATFOR emails accurately reflect what the Egyptian officials wrote and there is no explanation how a private American company even had access to such messages, it is important to note that they are more than two years old and Egypt has not bombed any dams in Ethiopia. To the extent the dispatch is accurate, it comes from a deposed Egyptian government. At the end of the article, a representative of the current Morsi government in Egypt is quoted as saying that the STRATFOR emails are hearsay "designed to disturb Egyptian-Ethiopian relations."
While Egyptian officials have on occasion made threatening comments about Ethiopia's use of Nile River tributaries dating back to the Anwar Sadat government, the heading for this article is a case of gross exaggeration.
Click here to read the article.
Business Insider is a U.S. business/entertainment news website based in New York. The information for the article comes from leaked internal emails written by STRATFOR, a reputable privately owned publisher of geopolitical analysis based in Austin, Texas.
The article quoted one alleged Egyptian dispatch dated 1 June 2010 that said a high-level Egyptian security/intel source, in regular contact with Mubarak and [then intelligence head Omar} Suleiman said: "The only country that is not cooperating is Ethiopia. We are continuing to talk to them, using the diplomatic approach. Yes, we are discussing military cooperation with Sudan. ... If it comes to a crisis, we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces in to block/sabotage the dam."
Assuming these STRATFOR emails accurately reflect what the Egyptian officials wrote and there is no explanation how a private American company even had access to such messages, it is important to note that they are more than two years old and Egypt has not bombed any dams in Ethiopia. To the extent the dispatch is accurate, it comes from a deposed Egyptian government. At the end of the article, a representative of the current Morsi government in Egypt is quoted as saying that the STRATFOR emails are hearsay "designed to disturb Egyptian-Ethiopian relations."
While Egyptian officials have on occasion made threatening comments about Ethiopia's use of Nile River tributaries dating back to the Anwar Sadat government, the heading for this article is a case of gross exaggeration.
Click here to read the article.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Kenya, Terrorism, Radicalization and Al-Shabaab
The October 2012 issue of West Point's CTC Sentinel contains two articles on the recruitment and radicalization of youth in Kenya in support of al-Shabaab.
The first article is by Christopher Anzalone, a doctoral student in the Institute of Islamic Studies at McGill University, titled "Kenya's Muslim Youth Center and Al-Shabab's East African Recruitment." The article examines al-Shabaab's regional recruitment drives in East Africa and profiles the Muslim Youth Center (MYC), which he believes is probably the Somali militant group's most reliable source of regional foreign fighters. He concludes that one of the MYC's primary goals is encouraging violent action inside Kenya and notes that it has claimed credit for numerous attacks on Kenyan security forces and government targets.
Click here to access the article.
The second article is by Frederick Nzes, a journalist based in Nairobi, titled "Terrorist Attacks in Kenya Reveal Domestic Radicalization." The article details recent terrorist attacks in Kenya and identifies the factors behind the radicalization of Muslims in Kenya. Nzes concludes that as al-Shabaab continues to weaken in Somalia, the Kenyan government must also focus on finding suitable approaches to deradicalize the small number of Muslims who have been lured into extremism and are waging jihad in Kenya.
Click here to access the article.
The first article is by Christopher Anzalone, a doctoral student in the Institute of Islamic Studies at McGill University, titled "Kenya's Muslim Youth Center and Al-Shabab's East African Recruitment." The article examines al-Shabaab's regional recruitment drives in East Africa and profiles the Muslim Youth Center (MYC), which he believes is probably the Somali militant group's most reliable source of regional foreign fighters. He concludes that one of the MYC's primary goals is encouraging violent action inside Kenya and notes that it has claimed credit for numerous attacks on Kenyan security forces and government targets.
Click here to access the article.
The second article is by Frederick Nzes, a journalist based in Nairobi, titled "Terrorist Attacks in Kenya Reveal Domestic Radicalization." The article details recent terrorist attacks in Kenya and identifies the factors behind the radicalization of Muslims in Kenya. Nzes concludes that as al-Shabaab continues to weaken in Somalia, the Kenyan government must also focus on finding suitable approaches to deradicalize the small number of Muslims who have been lured into extremism and are waging jihad in Kenya.
Click here to access the article.
Sharp Drop in Somali Piracy
The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) has just released its global piracy report covering the period 1 January through 30 September 2012. Somali pirate attacks cover an area that includes the Gulf of Aden, southern Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, and off Somalia, Yemen, Oman, Kenya, Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mozambique, and the Maldives.
The number of ships attacked by Somali pirates fell during the first nine months of 2012 to its lowest level since 2009 according to the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre (PRC). In the first nine months of 2012, there were 70 Somali attacks compared with 199 for the corresponding period in 2011. From July to September, just one ship reported an attempted attack by Somali pirates, compared with 36 incidents in the same three months last year.
IMB believes policing and interventions by international navies are deterring pirates along with ships' use of best management practices including the use of armed guards and other onboard security measures.
As of 30 September 2012, suspected Somali pirates were holding 11 vessels for ransom with 167 crew members as hostages onboard. In addition, 21 kidnapped crew members are being held on land.
You can obtain a free copy of both the IMB piracy report for 2011 and the one for the first nine months of 2012 by clicking here.
The number of ships attacked by Somali pirates fell during the first nine months of 2012 to its lowest level since 2009 according to the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre (PRC). In the first nine months of 2012, there were 70 Somali attacks compared with 199 for the corresponding period in 2011. From July to September, just one ship reported an attempted attack by Somali pirates, compared with 36 incidents in the same three months last year.
IMB believes policing and interventions by international navies are deterring pirates along with ships' use of best management practices including the use of armed guards and other onboard security measures.
As of 30 September 2012, suspected Somali pirates were holding 11 vessels for ransom with 167 crew members as hostages onboard. In addition, 21 kidnapped crew members are being held on land.
You can obtain a free copy of both the IMB piracy report for 2011 and the one for the first nine months of 2012 by clicking here.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Meles Zenawi Memorial Service at Abyssinian Baptist Church
Together with three other former U.S. ambassadors to Ethiopia, I attended the memorial service for Meles Zenawi on 27 October 2012 at the Abyssinian Baptist Church in the Harlem section of New York. Among the persons who made remarks were Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary General of the United Nations, and Susan Rice, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations.
I was saddened by some of the vituperative and just plain disrespectful remarks (usually by anonymous individuals) that subsequently appeared on Ethiopian websites in response to the remarks of Ambassador Rice. While I was not invited to make remarks, I have no doubt that whatever I might have said would also have been harshly criticized by these same individuals. Like Ambassador Rice, I have disagreed both as a representative of the U.S. government and as a private individual with some of the policies of Prime Minister Meles. But in spite of these disagreements, I always respected Meles as a person and the office that he held.
The event at the Abyssinian Baptist Church was a memorial to a deceased person; it was not a political rally. It was the wrong time and place to express such hostility. But lest the readers of the hostile blog postings think this was a major protest rally, let me make one point crystal clear. I walked from my hotel in Harlem to the Church on Saturday morning and passed across the street from all SIX protestors at fifteen minutes before nine, when the service began. At the conclusion of the service I returned to my hotel at about noon. The number of protestors had grown to between ten and twelve. Perhaps there were several more present when the service was underway and they decided to leave before noon. But this was a very small group of protestors.
As for the remarks made by Ambassador Rice, I urge that you read them yourself and make up your own mind. Click here to access them.
In the 12 hours after this posting as Hurricane Sandy hits the Mid-Atlantic and New England region, some 1,700 persons have read this item and 12 of you responded. Some of the replies agreed with me; others did not. Since none of the responses contained truly offensive language, I posted all 12 without editorial change. (I will not post responses that contain offensive language. I also congratulate those of you who have the courage to include your name.)
The memorials to Meles are over. New Ethiopian leaders are in place. I deeply hope the new team will open the political process in Ethiopia. At a minimum, it deserves in my humble opinion as an outside observer a chance to demonstrate how it can serve the people of Ethiopia.
ADDENDUM as of the evening of 29 October.
I seemed to have touched off a firestorm with this posting. That was not my intention. I have posted at least 80 percent of the comments (pro and con) that I have received. I have not posted several that were in my opinion excessively offensive, usually aimed at me personally but one or two that were over the top on the other side. I don't mind being called an "old dude" as one person said in a response that I have not included. At age 72, the author was, of course, correct. Unfortunately, the language deteriorated sharply after that point and will not find its way on my blog.
This will be my last comment on this issue. I just want to end where I began. This was a memorial service. What is important for Ethiopians now is to look forward, to help make Ethiopia a better place. I hope some of the harshest critics can find their way to support organizations like the Ethiopian-North American Health Professionals Association and People to People and less time fulminating.
I was saddened by some of the vituperative and just plain disrespectful remarks (usually by anonymous individuals) that subsequently appeared on Ethiopian websites in response to the remarks of Ambassador Rice. While I was not invited to make remarks, I have no doubt that whatever I might have said would also have been harshly criticized by these same individuals. Like Ambassador Rice, I have disagreed both as a representative of the U.S. government and as a private individual with some of the policies of Prime Minister Meles. But in spite of these disagreements, I always respected Meles as a person and the office that he held.
The event at the Abyssinian Baptist Church was a memorial to a deceased person; it was not a political rally. It was the wrong time and place to express such hostility. But lest the readers of the hostile blog postings think this was a major protest rally, let me make one point crystal clear. I walked from my hotel in Harlem to the Church on Saturday morning and passed across the street from all SIX protestors at fifteen minutes before nine, when the service began. At the conclusion of the service I returned to my hotel at about noon. The number of protestors had grown to between ten and twelve. Perhaps there were several more present when the service was underway and they decided to leave before noon. But this was a very small group of protestors.
As for the remarks made by Ambassador Rice, I urge that you read them yourself and make up your own mind. Click here to access them.
In the 12 hours after this posting as Hurricane Sandy hits the Mid-Atlantic and New England region, some 1,700 persons have read this item and 12 of you responded. Some of the replies agreed with me; others did not. Since none of the responses contained truly offensive language, I posted all 12 without editorial change. (I will not post responses that contain offensive language. I also congratulate those of you who have the courage to include your name.)
The memorials to Meles are over. New Ethiopian leaders are in place. I deeply hope the new team will open the political process in Ethiopia. At a minimum, it deserves in my humble opinion as an outside observer a chance to demonstrate how it can serve the people of Ethiopia.
ADDENDUM as of the evening of 29 October.
I seemed to have touched off a firestorm with this posting. That was not my intention. I have posted at least 80 percent of the comments (pro and con) that I have received. I have not posted several that were in my opinion excessively offensive, usually aimed at me personally but one or two that were over the top on the other side. I don't mind being called an "old dude" as one person said in a response that I have not included. At age 72, the author was, of course, correct. Unfortunately, the language deteriorated sharply after that point and will not find its way on my blog.
This will be my last comment on this issue. I just want to end where I began. This was a memorial service. What is important for Ethiopians now is to look forward, to help make Ethiopia a better place. I hope some of the harshest critics can find their way to support organizations like the Ethiopian-North American Health Professionals Association and People to People and less time fulminating.
"Somali Spring" Podcast
The Rift Valley Institute's website contains a 44 minute podcast that features the highlights of an 11 October 2012 discussion with Kenneth Menkhaus, Jabril Abdulle, Amal Ismail, and Matt Bryden. The panelists discussed current developments in Somalia and the country's prospects following the election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Click here to access the podcast.
Click here to access the podcast.
Friday, October 26, 2012
US Base in Djibouti
The Washington Post published on 25 October 2012 an extensive report on the U.S. counterterrorism base in Djibouti. Written by Craig Whitlock, it focuses on the operation of drones from the base, especially over Yemen. There is surprisingly little discussion of the base's role in connection with Somalia.
Click here to read the article.
Click here to read the article.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
African Union and Peacekeeping
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in September 2012 a study titled From AMIB to AMISOM that looks at the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) of the African Union (AU). The author is Mohammud A. Hussien, a senior lecturer in international law at the Ethiopian Civil Service College. The paper covers AU efforts in the Comoro Islands, Burundi, Darfur, and Somalia.
The paper analyses some of the practices in AU-led peace missions in light of the AU normative framework in a way that informs the challenges of APSA's institutional future. While APSA is both a highly complex and an evolving legal and institutional framework, there are some critical constraints that APSA faces as it continues to provide a framework for engaging in Africa's conflicts.
Click here to read the study.
The paper analyses some of the practices in AU-led peace missions in light of the AU normative framework in a way that informs the challenges of APSA's institutional future. While APSA is both a highly complex and an evolving legal and institutional framework, there are some critical constraints that APSA faces as it continues to provide a framework for engaging in Africa's conflicts.
Click here to read the study.
Meles Zenawi and Ethiopia: Looking Back and Looking Foreward
Medhane Tadesse, writing initially for the Current Analyst and republished by Pambazuka News, has produced an unusually insightful analysis of the legacy of Meles Zenawi and what this legacy means for the future of Ethiopia.
Medhane Tadesse is an associate professor of history and an academic specialist on peace and security issues in Africa. He served as a director at the Center for Policy Research and Dialogue, a think tank in Addis Ababa. He is currently an adviser at the African Union. He is the author of numerous books and articles, including The Ethiopia-Eritrea War: Retrospect and Prospects and Al-Ittihad: Political Islam and the Black Economy in Somalia.
Click here to read his analysis.
Medhane Tadesse is an associate professor of history and an academic specialist on peace and security issues in Africa. He served as a director at the Center for Policy Research and Dialogue, a think tank in Addis Ababa. He is currently an adviser at the African Union. He is the author of numerous books and articles, including The Ethiopia-Eritrea War: Retrospect and Prospects and Al-Ittihad: Political Islam and the Black Economy in Somalia.
Click here to read his analysis.
Somali Commentator Criticizes Role of International Community
Somali commentator Mohamud M. Uluso posted a provocative analysis on 23 October 2012 on Pambazuka News concerning the role of the international community as the new Somali government tries to establish its bona fides. He was highly critical of the international community for not providing sufficient resources to the Federal Government and then not allowing it sufficient independence over the use of those funds.
While the international community has in the past made its share of mistakes in Somalia, it must also consider, as even Uluso admits, that "Somalia has had a poor record of public financial management throughout its history." While it is important that the international community provide adequate funding for the new government, it is equally imperative that it ensure these resources are used for the purpose of providing services to the Somali people and building a responsive government widely accepted by the Somali people.
Uluso concludes that "the future forebodes more pessimism and treachery than optimism and trustworthiness." I disagree. While mistakes will continue to be made on both the Somali and international side, I am more optimistic than I have been in two decades.
Click here to read Uluso's commentary.
While the international community has in the past made its share of mistakes in Somalia, it must also consider, as even Uluso admits, that "Somalia has had a poor record of public financial management throughout its history." While it is important that the international community provide adequate funding for the new government, it is equally imperative that it ensure these resources are used for the purpose of providing services to the Somali people and building a responsive government widely accepted by the Somali people.
Uluso concludes that "the future forebodes more pessimism and treachery than optimism and trustworthiness." I disagree. While mistakes will continue to be made on both the Somali and international side, I am more optimistic than I have been in two decades.
Click here to read Uluso's commentary.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
China-African Relations: An African View
The Open Society Initiative of Southern Africa (OSISA) published on 3 October 2012 an analysis of the China-Africa relationship by Claude Kabemba. The author emphasized that the central challenge for African governments is to ensure that interaction with China is mutually beneficial.
OSISA was established in 1997 by George Soros to promote the institutions and practices of open society and the creation of vibrant and tolerant democracies.
Click here to read the analysis.
OSISA was established in 1997 by George Soros to promote the institutions and practices of open society and the creation of vibrant and tolerant democracies.
Click here to read the analysis.
Ethiopia Hosts World's Second Largest Refugee Complex
UNHCR reports that the refugee complex near Dollo Ado in the southeastern corner of Ethiopia has now become the world's second largest encampment of refugees after the Dadaab camp in neighboring Kenya. More than 170,000 Somali refugees now live in a series of camps in the vicinity of Dollo Ado.
In addition to Somali refugees, Ethiopia also hosts more than 91,000 Sudanese and almost 61,000 Eritrean refugees. Ethiopia has historically been welcoming to refugees from neighboring countries.
Click here to read the article by UNHCR.
In addition to Somali refugees, Ethiopia also hosts more than 91,000 Sudanese and almost 61,000 Eritrean refugees. Ethiopia has historically been welcoming to refugees from neighboring countries.
Click here to read the article by UNHCR.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
The Meaning of Jihad: A Somali View
Abukar Arman, Somalia's Special Envoy to the United States, posted on 21 October 2012 a piece on the Foreign Policy Association blog titled "The Counterintuitive Jihad," which recognizes the need to find common ground for coexistence.
Click here to read the analysis.
Click here to read the analysis.
Kenya's Open Data Initiative
Kenya has put in place a one-stop shop information portal known as the Open Data Initiative. It went into effect in July 2011. The impetus for this important initiative came from former permanent secretary in Kenya's Ministry of Information and Communications, Bitange Ndemo. The portal contains information from the government on demographics, the economy, health and education.
Click here to access the portal.
Rushda Majeed prepared an interesting case study published by Princeton University in September 2012 that highlights Bitange Ndemo's efforts to open Kenya's government to its citizens and the world.
Click here to access the case study.
Click here to access the portal.
Rushda Majeed prepared an interesting case study published by Princeton University in September 2012 that highlights Bitange Ndemo's efforts to open Kenya's government to its citizens and the world.
Click here to access the case study.
UN Role in Somalia
Anthony Banbury, UN assistant secretary general for field support, wrote a commentary on the UN role in Somalia that appeared in the 23 October 2012 Washington Post. He accurately emphasized the UN's important and continuing effort in Somalia since the early 1990s to encourage peace and provide humanitarian aid, albeit downplaying the missteps of the UNOSOM phase in the mid-1990s.
Although he cited the role of the African Union in Somalia (AMISOM), it should be underscored that AMISOM has done the heavy lifting in Somalia since 2007. The African Union (mainly Ugandan and Burundi forces joined later by the Kenyans and Djiboutians) sent troops to Somalia when the United Nations chose not to do so.
Click here to read Banbury's commentary.
Although he cited the role of the African Union in Somalia (AMISOM), it should be underscored that AMISOM has done the heavy lifting in Somalia since 2007. The African Union (mainly Ugandan and Burundi forces joined later by the Kenyans and Djiboutians) sent troops to Somalia when the United Nations chose not to do so.
Click here to read Banbury's commentary.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Assessment of China-Africa Ties
The Africa Research Institute, an independent, non-partisan think tank based in London, published in October 2012 a four page assessment of China-Africa relations.
The principal conclusions are:
--China's engagement in Africa is a product of globalization, not colonization.
--Chinese finance to Africa is multifaceted and aid is a modest proportion.
--The so-called "win-win" relationship is misleading.
--China's policy of political non-interference is ambiguous and evolving.
--There is a marked imbalance of power, but the onus is on African policymakers to take maximum advantage of Chinese engagement.
Click here to read the assessment.
The principal conclusions are:
--China's engagement in Africa is a product of globalization, not colonization.
--Chinese finance to Africa is multifaceted and aid is a modest proportion.
--The so-called "win-win" relationship is misleading.
--China's policy of political non-interference is ambiguous and evolving.
--There is a marked imbalance of power, but the onus is on African policymakers to take maximum advantage of Chinese engagement.
Click here to read the assessment.
Interview on China-Africa Relations
The U.S. edition of Voice of Russia asked me to address the question of China-Africa relations in an interview that aired on 18 October 2012. Click here to listen to the eleven minute interview.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Egypt-China Relations
The China Brief, a publication of the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, published an article titled "A New Egypt Looks to China for Balance and Leverage" by Chris Zambelis on 21 September 2012.
The article points out that Egyptian President Muhammed Morsi made his first visit (28-30 August) outside the Middle East to China and not the United States. Zambelis argued that Morsi and his Freedom and Justice Party want to diversify Egypt's foreign relations away from former President Mubarak's strong orientation toward the United States. Morsi's trip was also designed to reassure Beijing of post-revolutionary Egypt's intent to preserve its long-standing bilateral relationship with China.
Click here to read the article.
The article points out that Egyptian President Muhammed Morsi made his first visit (28-30 August) outside the Middle East to China and not the United States. Zambelis argued that Morsi and his Freedom and Justice Party want to diversify Egypt's foreign relations away from former President Mubarak's strong orientation toward the United States. Morsi's trip was also designed to reassure Beijing of post-revolutionary Egypt's intent to preserve its long-standing bilateral relationship with China.
Click here to read the article.
Ethiopia as a Regional Power
Writing for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), Catherine Grant-Makokera and Itumeleng Rantao, looked at Ethiopia's role as a regional power on 28 September 2012.
On the positive side, they highlighted the fact that as a share of GDP, Ethiopia's spending on infrastructure is by far the highest in Africa. They compared GDP growth of Kenya and Ethiopia, noting that Ethiopia has done much better than Kenya since 2003. On the negative side, they pointed out that Ethiopia's manufacturing sector remains uncompetitive, providing less than 10 percent of the total value of merchandise exports.
Click here to read the brief analysis.
On the positive side, they highlighted the fact that as a share of GDP, Ethiopia's spending on infrastructure is by far the highest in Africa. They compared GDP growth of Kenya and Ethiopia, noting that Ethiopia has done much better than Kenya since 2003. On the negative side, they pointed out that Ethiopia's manufacturing sector remains uncompetitive, providing less than 10 percent of the total value of merchandise exports.
Click here to read the brief analysis.
Chinese Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones in Africa
Ana Cristina Alves, senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), published a brief analysis in June 2012 on Chinese Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones (ETCZ) in Africa. China approved eight of them: two each in Zambia and Nigeria and one in Ethiopia, Mauritius, Egypt and Algeria. As of June, only the ETCZ in Egypt was functional while the Chambishi ETCZ in Zambia was partly operational. About the time this piece was written, the ETCZ in Algeria was being cancelled.
Alves concluded that these ventures are at a crossroads. They face serious challenges; it is too early to declare them either successes or failures.
Click here to read the policy brief.
Alves concluded that these ventures are at a crossroads. They face serious challenges; it is too early to declare them either successes or failures.
Click here to read the policy brief.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
China-U.S. Cooperation in Africa
He Wenping, director of the African Studies Section of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote a commentary in the 6 August 2012 issue of China-US Focus titled "'Trust' Is the Key Word for China-US Cooperation in Africa."
She argues that a sound and trust-based relationship between China and the U.S. can serve as a solid foundation for China-U.S. coordination and cooperation in Africa. I have been making essentially the same argument over the past five years and, in fact, He Wenping quotes me in her commentary.
Click here to read the commentary.
She argues that a sound and trust-based relationship between China and the U.S. can serve as a solid foundation for China-U.S. coordination and cooperation in Africa. I have been making essentially the same argument over the past five years and, in fact, He Wenping quotes me in her commentary.
Click here to read the commentary.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Update on South Sudan
Chatham House in London published on 16 October 2012 a discussion between two experts titled "South Sudan: Current Trends, Regional Impacts and Donor Relations." The participants are Matthew LeRiche, London School of Economics, and Edward Thomas, Rift Valley Institute in Nairobi, Kenya.
Click here to access the transcript.
Click here to access the transcript.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
The Nile Water Issue
One of the most important water issues in the world today concerns the Nile. The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in September 2012 a paper that examines the implications of recent efforts to avoid conflict and manage and utilize the Nile by the ten riparian countries. The paper argues that it is imperative to give priority to the most contentious areas of the Nile Basin by capitalizing on the current opportunities presented by Egypt's gestures of goodwill.
The author is Kidan Kiros Bitsue, a lecturer at the Centre for Federal Studies at Addis Ababa University and a PhD candidate in the College of Development Studies.
Click here to access the study.
The author is Kidan Kiros Bitsue, a lecturer at the Centre for Federal Studies at Addis Ababa University and a PhD candidate in the College of Development Studies.
Click here to access the study.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Meles Zenawi Legacy
Jason Mosley, associate fellow at Chatham House in London, recently discussed the legacy of former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi with the German station Deutsche Welle.
Click here to listen to the three minute broadcast.
Click here to listen to the three minute broadcast.
African Textile Exports, China and AGOA
The Eurasia Review ran a brief but fascinating analysis on 15 October 2012 of the impact on African textile exports under the U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The authors--Lorenzo Rotunno, Pierre-Louis Vezina and Zheng Wang--describe how U.S. trade policy designed to encourage duty free imports from Africa inadvertently turned Africa into a temporary trade corridor for China.
AGOA provided an opportunity for exporters from China and Taiwan to transship their textile products via industrial plants in Africa, thus avoiding U.S. quotas by benefiting from AGOA preferences. The subsequent end of quotas on Chinese exports rendered the transshipment unnecessary, leading to the departure of many of the textile factories in Africa and the fall of textile imports from Africa under AGOA.
Click here to read the analysis.
AGOA provided an opportunity for exporters from China and Taiwan to transship their textile products via industrial plants in Africa, thus avoiding U.S. quotas by benefiting from AGOA preferences. The subsequent end of quotas on Chinese exports rendered the transshipment unnecessary, leading to the departure of many of the textile factories in Africa and the fall of textile imports from Africa under AGOA.
Click here to read the analysis.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Photo Spread on AMISOM in Somalia
The October/November 2012 issue of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Journal contains an excellent photo spread on the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces. Award-winning photographer Susan Schulman took the photos and Paul D. Williams, associate professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University provided the text.
Click here to access the article, which is only available if you join RUSI or purchase the article separately.
Click here to access the article, which is only available if you join RUSI or purchase the article separately.
Friday, October 12, 2012
BRICS in Africa
The 8th Iberian Congress of African Studies met in Madrid in June 2012 and included papers on the BRICS states in Africa. The four following papers can be accessed on the conference website:
The Image of Russia in Africa: The Soviet Legacy's Role by Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Russian Academy of Sciences.
BRICS in Africa: China and Russia Roles by Tatiana Deych, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Topical Problems of Russian-African Relations by Evgeny N. Korendyasov, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Images and Prospects of BRICS in Africa by Alexandra A. Arkhangelskaya, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Summaries of several other papers are also available.
To access the four papers click here and go to "Descargar." Then click the box in the lower left-hand part of the screen.
The Image of Russia in Africa: The Soviet Legacy's Role by Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Russian Academy of Sciences.
BRICS in Africa: China and Russia Roles by Tatiana Deych, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Topical Problems of Russian-African Relations by Evgeny N. Korendyasov, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Images and Prospects of BRICS in Africa by Alexandra A. Arkhangelskaya, Russian Academy of Sciences.
Summaries of several other papers are also available.
To access the four papers click here and go to "Descargar." Then click the box in the lower left-hand part of the screen.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Sudan and South Sudan: Issues for the U.S.
The U.S. Congressional Research Service published a thoughtful report on 5 October 2012 titled "Sudan and South Sudan: Current Issues for Congress and U.S. Policy." The author is Lauren Ploch Blanchard.
The report examines the shared interests and outstanding disputes between the Sudans after separation, and gives an overview of political, economic, and humanitarian conditions in the two countries, with a focus on possible implications for U.S. policy and congressional engagement.
Click here to read the report.
The report examines the shared interests and outstanding disputes between the Sudans after separation, and gives an overview of political, economic, and humanitarian conditions in the two countries, with a focus on possible implications for U.S. policy and congressional engagement.
Click here to read the report.
Displaced Pastoralists in Northern Kenya
The Institute for Security Studies published on 8 October 2012 a report on the internal displacement and vulnerability of pastoralist communities in northern Kenya. The authors are Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, Andrews Atta-Asamoah and Roba D. Sharamo. They state that internal displacement has forced hundreds of thousands of pastoralists from their homes and lands in northern Kenya.
The report investigates the situation surrounding these displaced pastoralists. It examines the causes of their displacement, the legal basis for their protection, the shortcomings in responding to their problem and makes recommendations to the government of Kenya, pastoralist leaders and the donor community.
Click here to read the report.
The report investigates the situation surrounding these displaced pastoralists. It examines the causes of their displacement, the legal basis for their protection, the shortcomings in responding to their problem and makes recommendations to the government of Kenya, pastoralist leaders and the donor community.
Click here to read the report.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
BRICS Discuss Alternative to World Bank
The 2012 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Think-Tanks Forum recently met recently in China to pursue an earlier proposal to create a BRICS development bank. While there is no timetable to establish the bank, it seems to be moving forward.
The aim of the new bank is to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries to supplement the efforts of existing multilateral and regional financial institutions. Some of the persons participating in the meeting found fault with the existing global financial institutions, especially the World Bank, for not providing adequate capital for large infrastructure projects in BRICS and other developing countries. The BRICS also complain that they do not have a sufficient governing role in the World Bank and IMF, which are dominated by the United States and Europe.
Nevertheless, the delegates generally agreed the BRICS bank should supplement the World Bank and other multilateral or bilateral financial institutions and that its intention was not to subvert the Bretton Woods system. At the same time, the new bank could put pressure on the current system and compete with the World Bank.
For an article in China's Global Times on this subject, click here.
The aim of the new bank is to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries to supplement the efforts of existing multilateral and regional financial institutions. Some of the persons participating in the meeting found fault with the existing global financial institutions, especially the World Bank, for not providing adequate capital for large infrastructure projects in BRICS and other developing countries. The BRICS also complain that they do not have a sufficient governing role in the World Bank and IMF, which are dominated by the United States and Europe.
Nevertheless, the delegates generally agreed the BRICS bank should supplement the World Bank and other multilateral or bilateral financial institutions and that its intention was not to subvert the Bretton Woods system. At the same time, the new bank could put pressure on the current system and compete with the World Bank.
For an article in China's Global Times on this subject, click here.
Sudan-Turkey Ties
World Politics Review online asked me to respond to several questions concerning relations between Sudan and Turkey. My response dealing with political ties, trade, investment and aid appeared on 10 October 2012.
Click here to read the Q and A.
Click here to read the Q and A.
China-Africa: Resources for Infrastructure
Nathan William Meyer posted on 9 October 2012 at International Policy Digest a piece titled "China's Dangerous Game: Resource Investment and the Future of Africa." It discusses China's massive resources-for-infrastructure deals in Africa.
While the analysis makes a positive contribution to the subject, it is misleading in that it interchanges "resource-for infrastructure deals" with "investment". What is taking place here is not investment as in foreign direct investment. Most of these deals are concessionary loans offered by Chinese banks or institutions to resource rich African countries such as Angola and Ghana. These countries often use the loans for major infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, dams, etc. built by Chinese companies, usually state-owned companies. The African country then pays down the loan by sending natural resources, usually oil or minerals, to China. This activity does not constitute Chinese investment in Africa. It is a commercial deal or, as the author sometimes says, resources-for-infrastructure deal.
Click here to read the analysis.
While the analysis makes a positive contribution to the subject, it is misleading in that it interchanges "resource-for infrastructure deals" with "investment". What is taking place here is not investment as in foreign direct investment. Most of these deals are concessionary loans offered by Chinese banks or institutions to resource rich African countries such as Angola and Ghana. These countries often use the loans for major infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, dams, etc. built by Chinese companies, usually state-owned companies. The African country then pays down the loan by sending natural resources, usually oil or minerals, to China. This activity does not constitute Chinese investment in Africa. It is a commercial deal or, as the author sometimes says, resources-for-infrastructure deal.
Click here to read the analysis.
China Central Television Expands Soft Power in Africa
Ronald Yick published a brief analysis on 23 September 2012 on the growing role in Africa of China Central Television (CCTV), which is owned by the Chinese government. CCTV opened a regional bureau in Nairobi, Kenya, at the beginning of 2012.
Click here to read the analysis.
Click here to read the analysis.
Monday, October 8, 2012
China-Africa Video Discussion
The Elliott School of International Affairs and the Sigur Center for Asian Studies at George Washington University organized on 25 September 2012 a launch of the new book titled China and Africa: A Century of Engagement by Josh Eisenman and me. We discussed the main themes and conclusions covered in the book and responded to questions from the audience.
Click here to view the video.
Click here to read a short written summary of the event.
Click here to view the video.
Click here to read a short written summary of the event.
Turkey's Role in Somalia
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published an excellent analysis on 8 October 2012 titled Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia. At one point, I believe it suggested Turkey's revived interest in Africa is more recent than is actually the case. Turkey undertook a major effort beginning in 2005 to expand its relations throughout Africa. Its engagement with Africa since then has been extraordinary.
The study concluded that "Somalis of all walks of life refer to Turkey's arrival as a miracle and Godsend. But that honeymoon is ending." ICG added that "Turkey faces incredibly high Somali expectations that will lead to disappointment unless well managed." It then properly warned: "Ankara should be under no illusion that it can continue working solo in Somalia. International actors that have traditionally played the lead role in Somalia are joining Turkey on the ground in Mogadishu. It will need to coordinate its efforts with others to achieve a durable peace in Somalia, because the alternative--poor coordination--will be exploited by Somali politicians, leading to unnecessary duplication and the waste of limited and badly needed resources."
Click here to read the analysis.
The study concluded that "Somalis of all walks of life refer to Turkey's arrival as a miracle and Godsend. But that honeymoon is ending." ICG added that "Turkey faces incredibly high Somali expectations that will lead to disappointment unless well managed." It then properly warned: "Ankara should be under no illusion that it can continue working solo in Somalia. International actors that have traditionally played the lead role in Somalia are joining Turkey on the ground in Mogadishu. It will need to coordinate its efforts with others to achieve a durable peace in Somalia, because the alternative--poor coordination--will be exploited by Somali politicians, leading to unnecessary duplication and the waste of limited and badly needed resources."
Click here to read the analysis.
Mayor "Tarzan" of Mogadishu
Mohamed Mubarak wrote a short piece on Mohamoud Ahmed Nur, the mayor of Mogadishu but better known as "Tarzan," for Foreign Policy magazine. Nur previously ran an Internet cafe in London for 20 years.
Click here to read the entertaining article.
Click here to read the entertaining article.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
American Jihadist in Somalia
Sudarsan Raghavan wrote an informative update in the Washington Post about Omar Shafik Hammami (aka Mansoor al-Amriki), the American from Alabama who joined al-Shabaab in 2006. Hammami has fallen on hard times since AMISOM forced him out of Merka.
Click here to read the article.
Click here to access a short video in English about Hammami.
Click here to read the article.
Click here to access a short video in English about Hammami.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Analyses of Situation in Somalia and South Sudan
The October 2012 Peace and Security Council Report published by the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa contains an analysis of the situation in Somalia and the one in South Sudan. The Somalia report can be found on pages 2-8 and South Sudan on pages 8-12.
Click here to access the monthly report.
Click here to access the monthly report.
Article on New Ethiopian Prime Minister
Valentina Pasquali wrote a short piece on Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn for the October 2012 Global Finance Magazine. I am quoted in the article. Click here to read the article.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
New Monograph on China's Advance in Africa
David E. Brown, a career member of the U.S. Foreign Service who is assigned to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies as senior diplomatic advisor, authored in September 2012 a 128-page monograph titled Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China's Advance in Africa is Underestimated and Africa's Potential Underappreciated. The Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College published the monograph.
Brown has served with the State Department in four embassies in Africa and as economic officer at the embassy in Beijing and consul general in Chengdu. In addition, he was assigned to the Strategy, Plans and Programs section of AFRICOM in Stuttgart.
The monograph examines China's oil diplomacy, equity investments in strategic minerals, and food policy in Africa. While stated U.S. policy is that Africa should not be seen as a zero-sum game, he argues there are areas where U.S.-China cooperation can help Africa remain elusive, mainly because of Beijing's hyper-mistrust of Washington. The United States could help itself, and Africa, by improving its own economic diplomacy and adequately funding its own soft-power efforts.
The monograph is divided into four parts: the first describes how China is leading other developing countries in expanding aid, trade, and investment with Africa. The second answers five questions: why China chose to expand its economic ties to Africa; why it has been so successful in expanding rapidly; whether new trade credits and development loans are creating a new African debt burden; whether African industrialization will be aided or hindered by China; and what the impact of new, nonstate Chinese actors will be on Africa. The third part addresses the strategic importance to China of its oil, minerals, and agriculture trade with and investments in Africa. The fourth part discusses U.S. responses to China's advance into Africa.
Click here to download a free copy of the monograph.
Brown has served with the State Department in four embassies in Africa and as economic officer at the embassy in Beijing and consul general in Chengdu. In addition, he was assigned to the Strategy, Plans and Programs section of AFRICOM in Stuttgart.
The monograph examines China's oil diplomacy, equity investments in strategic minerals, and food policy in Africa. While stated U.S. policy is that Africa should not be seen as a zero-sum game, he argues there are areas where U.S.-China cooperation can help Africa remain elusive, mainly because of Beijing's hyper-mistrust of Washington. The United States could help itself, and Africa, by improving its own economic diplomacy and adequately funding its own soft-power efforts.
The monograph is divided into four parts: the first describes how China is leading other developing countries in expanding aid, trade, and investment with Africa. The second answers five questions: why China chose to expand its economic ties to Africa; why it has been so successful in expanding rapidly; whether new trade credits and development loans are creating a new African debt burden; whether African industrialization will be aided or hindered by China; and what the impact of new, nonstate Chinese actors will be on Africa. The third part addresses the strategic importance to China of its oil, minerals, and agriculture trade with and investments in Africa. The fourth part discusses U.S. responses to China's advance into Africa.
Click here to download a free copy of the monograph.
Teaching Chinese to Africans
Daouda Cisse, research fellow at the Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, wrote on 11 September 2012 a short piece that looks at African interest in learning Chinese. He concludes that "why would Africans not want to learn Mandarin in this globalizing world?" He notes there are 27 Confucius Institutes and 3 classrooms in Africa for teaching Mandarin. By comparison, there are 87 Confucius Institutes and 205 classrooms in North America.
Click here to read his commentary.
Click here to read his commentary.
Monday, October 1, 2012
Global Competitiveness Ranking of Ethiopia
The World Economic Forum has just released its Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. It ranked 144 countries (38 in Africa). The rankings are based on the following 12 pillars of competitiveness: institutions, infrastructure, macro economic environment, health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication, and innovation.
Ethiopia was the only country ranked in the Horn of Africa. Its global position was 121 out of 144. The following African countries in descending order ranked higher than Ethiopia: South Africa, Mauritius, Rwanda, Morocco, Seychelles, Botswana, Namibia, Gambia, Gabon, Zambia, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, Liberia, Cameroon, Libya, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin and Tanzania. The following African countries ranked lower than Ethiopia in descending order: Cape Verde, Uganda, Mali, Malawi, Madagascar, Cote d'Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Chad, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Burundi.
In 2011-2012, Ethiopia ranked 106 out of 142 countries and in 2010-2011 it ranked 119 out of 139 countries. Ethiopia's most problematic factors for doing business were access to financing, corruption, inefficient government bureaucracy and inflation.
Click here to access the Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013.
Ethiopia was the only country ranked in the Horn of Africa. Its global position was 121 out of 144. The following African countries in descending order ranked higher than Ethiopia: South Africa, Mauritius, Rwanda, Morocco, Seychelles, Botswana, Namibia, Gambia, Gabon, Zambia, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, Liberia, Cameroon, Libya, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin and Tanzania. The following African countries ranked lower than Ethiopia in descending order: Cape Verde, Uganda, Mali, Malawi, Madagascar, Cote d'Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Chad, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Burundi.
In 2011-2012, Ethiopia ranked 106 out of 142 countries and in 2010-2011 it ranked 119 out of 139 countries. Ethiopia's most problematic factors for doing business were access to financing, corruption, inefficient government bureaucracy and inflation.
Click here to access the Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013.
Political Transition in Ethiopia and Somalia
Carol Castiel of the Voice of America's Encounter program asked Jennifer Cooke, head of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and I to participate in a half-hour discussion of the political transition underway in Ethiopia and Somalia.
Click here to access the program, then click Encounter for 28 September 2012.
Click here to access the program, then click Encounter for 28 September 2012.
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