Russia-Africa Relations

 The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) posted on 14 May 2025 a one hour televised interview titled "Why Is Russia Deepening Its Engagement with Africa?" with Steven Gruzd, SAIIA.

Following intense engagement by the Soviet Union in Africa during the Cold War, Russian interest dropped dramatically in the 1990s and and only began to return in the 21st century under the rule of Vladimir Putin.  The Wagner Group is an example of the new interest.  Russia still has a small trade and economic footprint in Africa and provides very little foreign aid.  Egypt is its most important partner.  It has developed partnerships in the nuclear power field and and remains an important source of arms for Africa.  The African countries have very little contact with the former Soviet republics.   

China-Kenya Nuclear Power Cooperation

 The Star published on 19 March 2025 an article titled "Kenya, China Ink Major Deal to Boost Nuclear Energy Development" by Felix Kipkemoi.

Kenya and China signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on nuclear energy development.  The agreement between Kenya's Nuclear Power and Energy Agency and China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation outlines cooperation in research, innovation, and technology transfer.  The partnership is expected to accelerate Kenya's progress toward diversifying its energy mix and ensuring long-term energy security.

Russia's Africa Corps Is Absorbing the Wagner Group

 The New York Times published on 25 June 2024 an article titled "Year After Failed Mutiny, Russia Tightens Grip on Wagner Units in Africa" by Elian Peltier.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has largely taken control of the Wagner Group's mercenary activities in Africa and placed it under the new Africa Corps.  Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, oversees Africa Corps operations.  Some Wagner Group operatives remain in the Central African Republic and Mali.  

Russia Steps Up Diplomatic Blitz in Africa

 Critical Threats published on 6 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Diplomatic Blitz Advances the Kremlin's Strategic Aims in Africa" by Liam Karr.

High-level Russian officials are meeting with Russian partners across Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin's strategic goals of projecting greater Russian influence to supplant the West and better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West.

Russia is trying to create a pro-Russian bloc that advances its military, economic, and political goals in Africa in the Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger).  It is pursuing this program with very modest economic resources and vulnerabilities that eventually risk backfiring.  

Russia's Policy in Africa

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in March 2023 a study titled "Moscow's Continent: The Principles of Russia's Africa Policy Engagement" by Vuk Vuksanovic, Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.  

The paper reflects on the increased importance of Africa to Russia's global interests.  It explores the critical drivers of Africa's role within Russian foreign policy and argues that Russian policy in Africa revolves around three themes: pursuing alternative economic partnerships, seeking geopolitical leverage, and promoting multipolarity.  

How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 22 April 2022 an analysis titled "How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition" by Katie Auth and Todd Moss, both at the Energy for Growth Hub.  

The authors reached 7 conclusions:

(1) African leaders will increasingly frame energy poverty as an energy security issue deserving the same urgency.

(2) The rush to boost LNG supply to Europe will stoke further African frustration with climate hypocrisy--unless development finance follows through.

(3) Rising oil and gas prices will hurt African electricity markets.

(4) But rising interest rates will also create headwinds for renewable projects.

(5) The need to diversify away from Russia will reinvigorate interest in African oil and gas production for export.

(6) As the urgency behind decarbonization intensifies, demand for critical minerals will spur investment in African mining.

(7) Russian actions (and Western financial sanctions) could give countries pause about betting on Russian nuclear technology.  

Russia's Plans for Africa

 Foreign Affairs published on 17 February 2022 an analysis titled "Russia Has Big Plans for Africa" by Samuel Ramani.

The Russians see Africa as a place where it can expand its global reach and simultaneously extract valuable resources for its state-owned enterprises.  Africa is also a market for Russian goods, especially arms.  Russia will remain a spoiler of French interests in Africa and not a great power with far reaching influence.  The West should exploit the fissures between China and Russia in Africa.

Infrastructure Development in Egypt with a Focus on China

 Executive Intelligence Review published on 16 October 2020 a study titled "The African Infrastructure Renaissance Along the Belt & Road--A Case Study" by Hussein Askary.  

This rosy study looks at infrastructure development in Egypt with a particular focus on the role of China. While it documents some important achievements, it omits any discussion of human rights.   

Russia Struggles to Build Influence in South Africa

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 16 December 2019 a study titled "Nuclear Enrichment: Russia's Ill-fated Influence Campaign in South Africa" by Andrew S. Weiss, Carnegie Endowment, and Eugene Rumer, Carnegie Endowment and former US intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia.

The authors argue that Russia today offers little in the way of practical assistance for helping South Africa, which has less than one percent of its trade with Russia. Moscow's close relations with former South African President Jacob Zuma, a Soviet-trained intelligence operative, resulted in an ill-fated nuclear power deal and was based on corruption. This relationship has been largely reversed by South Africa's strong civil society and system of checks and balances.

Russia and China Vie to Develop Nuclear Power in Africa

Deutsche Welle posted on 22 October 2019 a story titled "African Countries Mull Nuclear Energy as Russia Extends Offers" by Chiponda Chimbelu.

South Africa is the only country in Africa with a functioning nuclear power plant although Egypt has construction scheduled. Russia leads in the number of nuclear agreements that it has signed in Africa. It has agreements with Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Zambia, Nigeria, and Ghana. China has signed nuclear agreements with Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda.

Russia Trying to Counter the US and China in Africa

Quartz Africa published on 22 October 2019 a commentary titled "Vladimir Putin Is Resetting Russia's Africa Agenda to Counter the US and China" by Landry Signe, Brookings Institution.

The author concludes that Russia is using a blend of hard power and soft power to provide a complementary yet competitive strategy for the creation of a new power bloc that would resist global forces' influnece in Africa--in particular, China and the United States.

Russia Looking to Fill In Behind West in Africa

The Daily Maverick published on 2 October 2019 a commentary titled "From Liberation to Authoritarianism? From Russia to Africa with Love" by Greg Mills, head of the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation.

As Russia prepares to host later this month in Sochi its first ever summit with African leaders, the author warns that it is not just China, but also Russia, that is planning to replace Western influence in Africa in countries where the West is pulling back. Changing this situation, he argues, demands engagement, not neglect.