Sunday, March 23, 2025

Valentino Achak Deng Is the South Sudanese Antidote to South African Elon Musk

The New York Times published on 22 March 2025 an opinion piece titled "Meet the Opposite of Elon Musk" by Nicholas Kristof. 

Kristof tells the story of Valentino Achak Deng, a South Sudanese refugee, who made his way to Atlanta and returned to South Sudan to set up a school under exceedingly difficult conditions.  Elon Musk came to the United States from South Africa and made a fortune.  One exudes empathy while the other, well you decide.  

China Is Ecstatic as DOGE Dumps Radio Free Asia and VOA

 The New York Times published on 22 March 2025 an article titled "How Elon Musk's DOGE Cuts Leave a Vacuum That China Can Fill" by David E. Sanger.

The Trump administration is moving to shut down a number of government agencies including Radio Free Asia and the Voice of America, which has the Communist Party of China (CPC) celebrating. The mouthpiece of the CPC crowed that the Voice of America "has now been discarded by its own government like a dirty rag."

Examples of Voice of America "Radical Propaganda." Really?

 The Washington Post published on 18 March 2025 an article titled "The White House's Flimsy Attack on Voice of America" by Glenn Kessler.

The Voice of America (VOA), which the Trump administration is in the process of dismantling, broadcasts in almost 50 languages to 360 million people around the world.  Inevitably, there will be an occasional statement out of the hundreds of thousands each year that should have been handled with greater care. 

In justification of dismantling the VOA and firing its employees, the White House issued a statement citing 10 examples of alleged "radical propaganda" announced by VOA over the past 5 years.  The Washington Post "fact checker" looked at each one and concluded the charge was either inaccurate or significantly lacking in context.   

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Do US Air Strikes Signal Game Over for the Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Is This Game Over for the Houthis?" by Burcu Ozcelik and Baraa Shiban, both at the Royal United Services Institute.

The shift in US policy under the Trump administration from targeted air strikes to a more aggressive campaign marks a significant escalation in the attacks on the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthis see themselves as playing the role that Hezbollah once played.  

Most observers agree that a ground operation by US forces is unlikely, which means there is a clear limitation to how much the US can achieve through airstrikes alone.  The Houthis are counting on the US losing interest over the course of a protracted air campaign.  

US Abdicates Information War to China, Russia, and Iran

 The Wall Street Journal published on 18 March 2025 an article titled "Defunding Voice of America Is a Win for China and Iran" by William A. Galston.

The Trump administration is in the process of gutting the US Agency for Global Media which controls the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, and several other broadcasting services. This is another case where Elon Musk has no understanding of the facts or importance of these media services to US foreign policy.

USAID Foreign Service Nationals Watch in Silence as Years of Service End

 Medium published on 20 March 2025 a commentary titled "Unsung Pillars of American Foreign Policy -- And the Silence that Betrays Them" by Annie Beauneu. 

Foreign Service Nationals who support USAID around the world are on the verge of being fired.  They provide the institutional memory and the backbone of US foreign aid programs around the world.  Now, they watch in silence as the Trump administration dismantles USAID.  

Shipping Industry Reluctant to Return to Red Sea/Suez Canal

 The New York Times published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Why the Shipping Industry Isn't Rushing Back to the Red Sea" by Peter Eavis.

Shipping executives who have been routing ships around Africa to avoid Houthi attacks rather than through the Suez Canal and Red Sea say they have no intention of returning to the shorter Red Sea route until there is a Middle East peace accord that includes the Houthis, or they are militarily defeated decisively.

Sudanese Army Now Controls most of Khartoum and Omdurman

 The New York Times published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Sudan's Military Retakes Presidential Palace in Devastated Capital" by Declan Walsh and Ivor Prickett.

The article describes and contains pictures of the devastation the war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has inflicted on Khartoum.  The SAF now controls most of Khartoum and Omdurman across the White Nile from the capital.  While Khartoum is a scene of devastation, markets and restaurants are bustling in Omdurman.  

China-Kenya Nuclear Power Cooperation

 The Star published on 19 March 2025 an article titled "Kenya, China Ink Major Deal to Boost Nuclear Energy Development" by Felix Kipkemoi.

Kenya and China signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on nuclear energy development.  The agreement between Kenya's Nuclear Power and Energy Agency and China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation outlines cooperation in research, innovation, and technology transfer.  The partnership is expected to accelerate Kenya's progress toward diversifying its energy mix and ensuring long-term energy security.

Impact of USAID Dismantlement on Horn of Africa

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 March 2025 a commentary titled "The US Retreat from Global Leadership" by Muktar Ismail, former advisor to Ethiopia's Somali Region president.

The author concludes that the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and collapse of foreign aid will expose governance fragility in the Horn of Africa and result in less US influence in the region.

Friday, March 21, 2025

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray in the Middle

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.  The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions.  It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Some Numbers on Impact of USAID Dismantlement

 VOX published on 16 March 2025 an article titled "The Devastating Impact of Trump's Slashing Foreign Aid, in 3 Charts" by Jess Craig.

This article provides some numbers on the global impact of slashing foreign aid, especially in the health care sector.  

US-China Competition for DRC's Critical Minerals and Rebel Threat to Regime

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition for Critical Minerals for Peace?" by Christian-Geraud Neema.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi's strategy is designed to help the Trump administration secure access to critical minerals and curtail China's expansion within the mineral supply chain.  As the Rwanda-baked M23 rebel group advances from the mineral rich eastern DRC towards Kinshasa, Tshisekedi's top priority may be regime survival.  The advance of the M23 forces has complicated control over minerals in the eastern Congo and US-China competition for access to them.  

Seeking Stability in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 March 2025 an analysis titled "Calming the Red Sea's Turbulent Waters."

The lengthy study concluded: "Now that the ceasefire has collapsed, renewed salvos between the U.S. and the Houthis, as well as the Houthis and Israel, amid rising tensions between Western states and Iran, and the potential for a fresh upsurge in fighting in Yemen have cast a darkening pall over the region.  Lasting stability in the Red Sea will depend on steering these conflicts toward a peaceful conclusion." 

The Political Case for USAID

 The Hill published on 19 March 2025 a commentary titled "The Challenging but Compelling Political Case for USAID" by J. Brian Attwood, USAID administrator in the Clinton administration.  

The author makes the domestic and international case for retaining the US Agency for International Development while acknowledging that it is a hard sell for many Americans who do not understand why the United States spends tax dollars on foreigners.  

USAID to Be Restructured, Downsized, and Transferred to State Department

The Wall Street Journal published on 19 March 2025 an article titled "Trump Officials Circulate Plan That Would Overhaul USAID" by Scott Peterson and Kristina Peterson.  

The Trump administration is crafting plans to reorganize USAID according to a memo detailing the plans.  USAID would be renamed the U.S. Agency for International Humanitarian Assistance and fall under the control of the State Department to enhance national security and counter adversaries like China.  Many programs previously managed by USAID would be eliminated.

Comment:  Whatever happens to USAID, much will be lost during the process of restructuring.  Identifying persons to manage what is left will take time and the State Department will struggle with taking on these new responsibilities.  

Sudan Armed Forces Take Control of Presidential Palace in Khartoum

 Reuters published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Sudanese Army Says It Has Control of Presidential Palace in Khartoum" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Jana Choukeir, and Nafisa Eltahir.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) seized full control of the presidential place in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has now mostly been pushed out of the capital region.  Consequently, the RSF is strengthening its positions in western Sudan as the country moves toward de facto partition between the RSF and the SAF.  

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Acidic Waste from Chinese-owned Copper Mine Contaminates River in Zambia

 The Associated Press published on 16 March 2025 an article titled "A River 'Died' Overnight in Zambia after an Acidic Waste Spill at a Chinese-owned Mine."

A tailings dam that holds acidic waste from a Chinese-owned copper mine collapsed in February, contaminating the Kafue River, Zambia's most important waterway.

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Downsizing Oversees State Department Missions: Trim but Don't Eliminate Embassies

The National Interest published on 19 March 2025 a commentary titled "Trim Embassies, Don't Close Them" by Ronald Neumann and Gregory Starr. 

As the Trump administration reduces US diplomatic and consular representation abroad, the authors argue persuasively that some consulates can be closed but America's 173 embassies should be retained although some staff can be trimmed.

Closing USAID Weakens American Power Globally

 The Washington Times published on 17 March 2025 a commentary titled "Closing USAID Will Weaken the Foundation of American Power" by Andrew Natsios, USAID administrator under President George W. Bush.

Elon Musk has fabricated unsubstantiated claims of fraud and program failure as he dismantled USAID, ending one of the most cost effective instruments of American influence around the world.

Is South Sudan on Brink of Return to Civil War?

 The New York Times published on 17 March 2025 an article titled "How South Sudan Returned to the Brink of War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

The latest clashes in South Sudan involve the South Sudan national military under President Salva Kiir and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar.  The Kiir government accused the White Army of attacking a military garrison while Machar says Kiir is targeting his allies.

Judge Rules Trump Administration Likely Violated Constitution in Dismantling USAID

Reuters published on 18 March 2025 an article titled "US Judge Finds Musk's USAID Cuts Likely Unconstitutional, Blocks Him from Making More Cuts" by Brendan Pierson. 

A federal judge ruled that Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency likely violated the US Constitution in their efforts to dismantle USAID.  The Trump administration is appealing the ruling.

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Starvation as a Weapon of War: Lessons from Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict

 Stimson published on 24 February 2025 a study titled "Preventing Starvation Crimes: Lessons Learned from Tigray" by Shane Goetz.

The international community failed to prevent mass starvation during Ethiopia's civil war centered in Tigray Region in spite of a UN Security Council resolution designed to avoid this situation.  The study concludes that the resolution lacks the tools to generate preventative action and early response to conflict-induced hunger crises or to hold parties accountable for the use of starvation as a method of warfare.

Former Republican and Democatic Officials Condemn Decision to Dismantle USAID

 Newsweek published on 17 March 2025 an article titled "Trump's USAID Cuts Help China and Russia, Former Officials Argue in Court" by Daniel Bush.

Former senior Republican and Democratic  national security officials argued in court that the dismantlement of USAID by the Trump administration has destroyed the United States as a reliable partner to allies around the world and ceded influence to Russia and China.

US Criticism of China in Africa Does Not Deter Africans from China

 Global Policy published on 11 March 2025 a commentary titled "America, First in Africa? -- How and Why Badmouthing China in Africa Did Not Profit the U.S. under Trump 1.0" by Afa'anwi Che, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.

US criticism of China's policies in Africa as exploitative during the first Trump administration failed to deter African leaders from Beijing and earned no friends for the United States.