Thursday, August 7, 2025

Interview in Egyptian Paper on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (in Arabic)

 The Egyptian newspaper Dostar published on 2 August 2025 an interview with me on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Egypt-Ethiopia relations.

The questions were submitted to me in English and answered in English. Dostar translated them into Arabic.  The interview indicates that I am the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, which is not the case.  I served as the former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Yemen: US Policy and Red Sea Attacks

 The Congressional Research Service published on 22 July 2025 a brief paper titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Attacks, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.  

This is a concise background of the political situation in Yemen, U.S. policy towards Yemen, and the status of Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.

Will US Tariffs Push African Countries Further into Arms of China?

 CNN posted on 5 August 2025 an article titled "Trump's Tariffs Are Sending African Countries into China's Hands" by Nimi Princewill.  

As the United States imposes tariffs on African countries, representatives of Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies in Africa, say this will only push African countries closer to China.  

New US Tariffs on African Countries

 The White House issued an executive order dated 31 July 2025 titled "Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates," which updates global tariff rates. 

Algeria, Libya, and South Africa now have 30 percent tariffs.  Tunisia has a 25 percent tariff.  The following countries have 15 percent tariffs: Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  

Other countries in Africa face a 10 percent tariff.  

Monday, August 4, 2025

Chinese Investment in Zambia

 News Diggers recently aired a 54-minute video documentary titled "Chinese Investment in Zambia -- the Good, the Bad, and the Dangerous" by Joseph Mwenda.

The documentary focuses on environmental damage caused by the collapse of a copper mine tailing dam controlled by Sino-Metals Ltd., sulfur dioxide released into the air by Avocado Mining Ltd., and dangerous working conditions in artisanal copper mines where Rong Xing Investment buys much of the production.  

China's embassy in Lusaka tried to prevent the airing of this controversial documentary.   

China Sees Economic Development as Solution to Horn of Africa Conflicts

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 August 2025 an article titled "China Pledges Support for Peaceful Development in Horn of Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China's Horn of Africa special envoy Xue Bing told participants at the 3rd Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development held in Uganda that Beijing promotes economic development as a solution to resolving conflict in the region.  

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Is Ethiopia a Temporal Hostage?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 August 2025 a commentary titled "Time's Hostage: How Ethiopia's Past Is Strangling Its Present and Future" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.

The author argues that Ethiopians don't simply live through time, they "politicize it, weaponize it, and often drown in it."  He adds, "The past isn't settled, it aches" and "The burden of the past bleeds into the present."  Ethiopia's crisis cannot be explained by ethnic divisions or weak institutions alone.  To move forward, Ethiopia must step outside the grip of its temporal paralysis.  

China's Third Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "China in the Horn of Africa."

Uganda hosted on 29 August the 3rd Conference on Peace and Development with attendance by officials from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and China's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Xue Bing.  China provided its analysis of the Horn of Africa's security challenges. 

Comment:  As with the previous two conferences, this appears to have been a talk shop with no tangible programs agreed upon for actually resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa.  

China Funds Satellite Data Receiving Ground Station for Namibia

 The South China Morning Post published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "Beijing Builds Influence with Help for African Space Sector" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China funded and built a satellite data receiving ground station on the outskirts of Namibia's capital of Windhoek.  Together with other stations, it could provide China with continuous telemetry, tracking and command capabilities for its expanding space missions.

China has bilateral agreements with over a dozen African countries for space technology, training, and infrastructure.  African countries are increasingly partnering with China in space technology.  

Friday, August 1, 2025

Sudan: Rapid Support Force Government Fails To Get African Union Support

 Deutsche Welle posted on 1 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan: Is a Rival Government Splitting the Country in Two?" by Jennifer Holleis.

Rapid Support Force (RSF) General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo claims to have jurisdiction over all of Sudan following formation in Darfur of his Transitional Peace Government. Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan quickly rejected the RSF government as an illegitimate entity.  The African Union said it will not recognize the RSF regime.

Houthi Red Sea Attacks Cause Insurance Rate Hikes

 The Insurance Business Magazine published on 1 August 2025 an article titled "Escalating Houthi Attacks in Red Sea Trigger New Global Supply Chain and Insurance Challenges" by Gia Snape.

The renewed Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have the potential to raise energy costs and disrupt supply chains.  Many shipping companies are once again diverting cargo around the Cape of Good Hope.  Insurers have increased their marine risk premiums.  

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Somaliland and Taiwan Sign Coast Guard Cooperation Agreement

 Focus Taiwan published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Taiwan, Somaliland Sign Coast Guard Cooperation Deal."

Somaliland's foreign minister met with Taiwan's president in Taipei last week when they signed a coast guard cooperation agreement involving training and exercises.  

Completion of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa's Largest Hydro Project

 The Nanyang Technological University posted on 29 July 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Wraps Up Construction of Africa's Largest Hydro Project."

Ethiopia has completed construction on the Blue Nile of the $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa's largest hydroelectric project.  In addition to meeting domestic demand for electricity, Ethiopia is now selling it to Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania.  The article comes with an excellent picture of the completed dam.  

Comment:  This article makes the same mistake that most reporting makes on this topic by stating that the Blue Nile provides 85 percent of the Nile River's total flow.  The Blue Nile contributes closer to 55 percent of the Nile River's flow.  A combination of the Blue Nile, the Tekeze that feeds directly into the Nile, and the Sobat that feeds into the White Nile contribute about 85 percent of the Nile River's flow.  The Blue Nile is the single most important source of water for the Nile.  All three of these rivers originate in Ethiopia. Their names change as they cross international borders.  

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

A Shout Out for US Diplomacy

 The Bulletin in Bend, Oregon reprinted on 29 July 2025 a commentary originally published in the Chicago Tribune titled "Burning Down America's Best Tool for Peace and Prosperity" by Elisabeth Shakelford, Dartmouth.

The author makes the case against the recent major cuts in State Department staffing instituted by DOGE.  She argues that diplomacy is the least expensive way to resolve or mitigate global crises.  

Is War Returning to Ethiopia's Tigray Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 July 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy's War Script: Deja Vu for Tigray, Ominous for Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.

The author fears that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is laying the ground for renewed conflict in Tigray Region.  He calls for the restoration of the Tigray People's Liberation Movement's legal status as a political party and the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement to avoid new conflict.

Chinese, Turkish, and Iranian Drones Fuel African Conflicts

 The China Global South Project published on 26 July 2025 an article titled "Chinese, Iranian and Turkish Drones Fuel Africa's New Era of Low-cost Warfare" by Celia Lebur and Mathieu Rabechault.

Some 30 African governments have acquired drones, giving them access to more affordable air power.  China, Turkey, and Iran sell them without any political conditionality.  They are often used to defeat internal dissident movements.  

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Egypt's Regional Strategy Damaged by Sudan-Libya Differences

 World Politics Review published on 28 July 2025 an analysis titled "Egypt's Regional Strategy Is Coming Undone in Libya and Sudan" by Elfadil Ibrahim.

In late June, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted General Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudan Armed Forces, in an attempt to mediate the growing tension between the two leaders.

The meeting reportedly was a disaster.  Burhan accused Haftar of arming his enemy in Sudan's civil war, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Haftar denied the allegations and Burhan then presented proof of his complicity.  Egypt's attempt at brokering peace between two of Cairo's major clients only laid bare the growing precariousness of Sisi's regional policy.

Somalia's State-building Program under Pressure

 The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."

For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.  

Can China's Internet Programs Catch Up to Elon Musk's Starlink?

 Swarajya, an Indian right-wing monthly magazine, published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "Xi Jinping's Starlink Challenge Stalls as China's Satellite Constellation Projects Face Launch Bottlenecks; India's Private Sector Advances."

Elon Musk's Starlink, the pioneering satellite internet service, faces competition from China's state-led Guowang and the Shanghai-backed Qianfan.  Musk's Starlink has launched more than 7,000 satellites providing connectivity to over five million customers in more than 100 countries.

Both of the Chinese projects face delays caused by rocket shortages, sluggish deployment rates, and internal competition.  As of July 2025, Guowang had launched only about 40 satellites in a program that envisages a network of over 13,000 that will provide high-speed internet for civilian and military use.

Qianfan, also known as SpaceSail and G60 Starlink, is backed by the Shanghai municipal government and plans to have 15,000 satellites by 2030.  To date, it has launched about 90 satellites and at least 17 of them have failed to reach their intended orbits.  State-backed Guowang receives launch priority, repeatedly pushing Qianfan to the sidelines.  

These problems in China's satellite programs may be alleviated, however, as Xi Jinping has reportedly instructed the People's Liberation Army to accelerate space-based communication systems in order to build a Chinese alternative to Starlink.  

Comment:  All of this has important implications for the Global South, and especially Africa, where Starlink has been slow to take hold and Chinese competition could challenge it.    

Monday, July 28, 2025

South Africa Puts More Pressure on Taipei Liaison Office to Move from Pretoria to Johannesburg

 The Daily Maverick published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "SA Government Officially Withdraws Recognition of Taiwan's Office in Pretoria" by Peter Fabricius.

The South African government officially withdrew its recognition of Taipei's representative office in the capital of Pretoria.  South Africa, under pressure from Beijing, insists that the office be renamed the Taipei Commercial Office and moved to the commercial center of Johannesburg.  The government in Taipei is refusing to accept the decision.  

Somalia Loses Ground to Al-Shabaab

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 28 July 2025 an article titled "Fragmented Governance in Somalia a Breeding Ground for Al-Shabaab's Growing Influence and Power" by Selam Tadesse Demissie.

Rivalries among the federal government, states, and political opposition are undermining the country's earlier counterterrorism successes.  Al-Shabaab is regaining areas in central Somalia and threatens the capital as the government struggles to implement its counterterrorism strategy.  

How to Sink State Department Morale

 HuffPost published on 26 July 2025 an article titled "Trump Is Gutting the State Department and Dragging Diplomats 'Through the Mud'" by Akbar Shahid Ahmed. 

The State Department recently fired more than 1,300 personnel and provided incentives for another 1,500 to quit.  It also has a hiring freeze in effect so that new staff cannot be added.

The article suggests that the firings are party ideologically motivated.  The demonizing of civil service and foreign service staff has sunk morale.  The author concludes that the State Department will likely be left "to wither" for the remainder of Trump's term.  

 

State Department Firings Listed by Bureau and Office

 Federal News Network posted on 25 July 2025 an article titled "These Are the State Department Offices Hit Hardest by Widespread Layoffs" by Jory Heckman.

The State Department fired 1,350 employees earlier this month.  This is a detailed account of the number of fired employees in 31 bureaus and offices according to civil service or foreign service status.  

Sudan Splits into Two Different Governments

 Deutsche Welle posted on 27 July 2025 an article titled "Sudan: RSF Forms Rival Government, Deepening Fissure" by Shakeel Sobhan.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on 26 July the formation of a rival civilian-led government in the RSF-controlled city of Nyala in South Darfur.  RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is the president.  The head of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North is the vice president.  

This splits Sudan with the Sudan Armed Forces controlling the north, east, and center of the country and the RSF controlling most of Darfur and parts of Kordofan in the west.

Sunday, July 27, 2025

China-US Competition in Africa

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 27 July 2025 an article titled "China's Rebuttal of AFRICOM: Finding the Middle Ground."

A recent article in the Communist Party of China's Global Times responded to AFRICOM's commander, General Michael Langley's 10 June testimony before the House Armed Services Committee that framed China as a growing strategic competitor in Africa.  The Global Times article dismissed US claims of China's military expansion in Africa.