The Nuanced Reality of China-Africa Relations

 American Diplomacy published in November 2024 a commentary titled "China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road" by Hank Cohen, former US assistant secretary of state for African affairs.  

The author points out that China has shifted from doing infrastructure projects based on loans to working on a grant basis.  China is now providing much needed infrastructure for African countries without the harm of tying them up in debt.  He concludes that the reality of China's Africa policy contains more shades of grey than popularly understood.  The positives for Africans are real, but so are the potential pitfalls.

Ethiopia: Will Monetary Reform Save the Economy?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 November 2024 a commentary titled "Now the Birr Floats, Will Ethiopia Sink or Swim?" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst and former advisor to the president of Somali Region.  

Last July, Ethiopia adopted a market-determined exchange rate, lifted most current account restrictions, and modernized its monetary policy framework in order to pave the way for International Monetary Fund and World Bank bailouts.

Ethiopia has regressed from two decades of economic and social progress and faces growing economic challenges.  The recent economic policy reform has witnessed a plummeting depreciation of the currency and strong inflationary pressure.  The author concludes that IMF and donor financing are unlikely to stabilize an economy plagued by conflict, poor management, and rapid currency depreciation.  

Somalia: Limitations of Social Assistance

 The Institute of Development Studies Bulletin published on 28 October 2024 a study titled "Can Social Assistance Strengthen the Social Contract in Somalia?" by Julie Lawson McDowall and Ruby D. Khan.

The study challenges the view that externally funded and designed social assistance programming in Somalia might help renew the social contract between the government and Somali nationals.  For many living outside Mogadishu, the federal government is irrelevant or predatory, and other local forms of authority are more important with existing elite bargains likely to reinforce existing societal fractures.  On the other hand, social assistance has the potential to make a small contribution if there is thoughtful design, greater inclusion, and long-term donor commitment.  

Ethiopia Ends One War as Another Looms

 The Economist published on 27 October 2024 an article titled "Another African War Looms."

The end of fighting in Tigray Region in 2022 did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war's two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara Region.  In addition, much of the countryside in Amhara Region is now under the control of local Fano militia groups.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reached out to the Tigrayans, his former enemies, about a possible military alliance against Eritrea, his former ally in the war against Tigray.  Some Tigrayans reportedly support an alliance with Abiy while others are interested in an alliance with Eritrea aimed at overthrowing Abiy.  

American and Chinese-financed Railway Projects in Southern Africa: Competition or Cooperation?

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 10 October 2024 a commentary titled "Two Railroads, One Vision" by Judd Devermont.

The US has mobilized over $4 billion to develop the Lobito Economic Corridor, including refurbishing Angola's Benguela rail line and supporting a rail line expansion between the southern DRC and Zambia.  This project will improve the movement of minerals and goods to the Angolan port of Lobito on the Atlantic coast.  China is making available $1 billion to revitalize the Tanzania-Zambia Railway built in the 1970s that terminates in Dar es Salaam in the Indian Ocean.

While these projects are being framed in the context of great power competition, they offer the possibility of serving as an example of great power cooperation and one that accomplishes a Pan-African goal for a transcontinental rail link from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic that will expand economic development throughout the region.  This could be done by connecting the two projects if all parties were to agree.   

Kenya's Ruling Party Expresses Interest in Chinese Communist Party Governance Model

 Mwakashili.com posted on 3 November 2024 an article titled "Chinese Communist Party Delegation Begins Three-Day Visit" by Martin Olage.

Li Xi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is on a three-day visit to Kenya arranged by the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).  The visit builds on growing ties between the CPC and UDA, which reportedly is seeking insights from the CPC's governance model.  The UDA is also pursuing funding from the CPC for construction of a new party headquarters.  

Continuing Atrocities in Sudan

 The Washington Post published on 1 November 2024 an article titled "A Commander Swapped Sides in Sudan's Civil War. His Community Paid in Blood" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out a killing spree and sexual violence campaign in a community after a RSF commander defected to the Sudan Armed Forces.  

Mercenary Wagner Group July Debacle in Mali

 The New York Times published on 1 November 2024 an article titled "How Wagner's Ruthless Image Crumbled in Mali" by Christiaan Triebert, Elian Peltier, Riley Mellen, and Sanjana Varghese.  

This is a detailed account of the defeat in July 2024 of the mercenary Wagner Group in Mali's desert north near the Algerian border at the hands of separatist Tuareg tribesmen and an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organization.  At least 46 Wagner Group mercenaries and 24 allied Mali soldiers died in the debacle involving a convoy of about 2 dozen heavily armed vehicles.  The loss was Wagner's largest ever in Africa and demonstrated the vulnerabilities and limitations of the group.  Three years after the Wagner Group arrived in Mali, the security situation has not improved.

Chinese Companies Engage in Forest Crimes in DRC

 The Environmental Investigation Agency published in October 2024 a report titled "Until the Last Log."

The report indicates that the largest industrial logging companies operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chinese firms Wan Peng and Booming Green, are engaged in apparent forest crimes and corruption to meet their clients' demand for unprocessed logs. The DRC is at risk of becoming the last safe haven for forest looters in the Congo Basin region. 

Ethiopia's Use of Drones Against Fano Rebels

 The Hill published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Drone Massacres Demand that US and World Pay Attention" by Mesfin Tegenu, American Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee.

The government of Ethiopia has been using Turkish-made drones to attack Fano rebels in Amhara Region.  The author says one of these drones recently hit a health center in the town of Gojjam resulting in the death of a child and village elder.  

One-third of Sudan's Population Has Deen Displaced

 The Associated Press published on 29 October 2024 an article titled "Sudan Has Displaced over 14 Million, or about 30% of the Population, UN Says."  

The International Organization for Migration says the civil war in Sudan has displaced about 30 percent of the population since conflict broke out more than a year ago.  Some 11 million people are internally displaced and 3.1 million are refugees in neighboring countries, making Sudan the world's largest displacement crisis.  

Is the Wagner Group a Model for Mercenary Organizations?

 Stimson published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Is Wagner a Model for Other Mercenary Groups?" by Brian Castner.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group gained much of its notoriety through its employment in African conflicts.  Wagner's strengths were its ability to recruit in Russia from military veterans and the prison population and to accomplish multiple lines of effort in a security-deficient space.  Wagner was both a military force and a business organization.  

Today, Wagner has split into multiple smaller organizations.  There are, however, situations where Wagner-like groups can thrive.  

Kenya Commissions Refurbished Chinese Military Helicopters

 Pulselive.co.ke posted on 30 October 2024 an article titled "KDF Boosts Aviation Capabilities with Deadly Z-9 Helicopters" by Denis Mwangi.

The Kenya Army Corps of Aviation commissioned on 29 October refurbished Harbin Z-9 helicopters provided by the China Aviation Technology Import and Export Corporation.  The report did not cite the number of helicopters that were commissioned.  

Kenya's the Nation published on 3 July 2020 an article titled "Queries Raised over Military Choppers that Have Yet to Fly."

The article indicated that Kenya received 8 Chinese Z-9 helicopters in January 2020 that had not been airborne as of July 2020.  There was no explanation why they remained on the ground without flying.

Comment:  It is not clear if the undetermined number of recently commissioned, refurbished Z-9s are the same ones as the 8 delivered in January 2020,

Thedefensepost.com posted on 16 July 2024 an article titled "Kenya Receives Military Helicopters from US" by Joe Saballa.

Coincidentally, the United States delivered the first two of eight UH-1 Huey military helicopters in July 2024 to the Kenya Defence Forces.  They were promised during the state visit to Washington by President William Ruto.  

Egypt Linked to Horn of Africa Challenges

 World Politics Review published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt's Future Increasingly Passes Through the Horn of Africa" by Francisco Serrano.  

With both its water resources from upstream Nile River countries such as Ethiopia and Suez Canal revenue now dependent on events in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, this region has become a strategic focus for Egypt.  

Is Africa Ready for China's Green Energy?

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in October 2024 a paper titled "Win-Win Green Partnership: China Is Capable, Is Africa Ready?" by Xiang Chen, Alex Benkenstein, and Steven Gruzd.

While China is positioned as a capable green partner, the success of the partnership depends on Africa's capacity to coordinate, finance, and integrate its priorities into the green development agenda.  The authors express concern over Africa's ability to respond.

China Finances Rehab of Tan-Zam Railway

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 28 October 2024 an article titled "China to Revive East African Railway as Scramble over African Resources Intensifies."  

China signed a memorandum of conversation to upgrade at a cost of more than $1 billion the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) originally constructed with an interest free loan from China in the 1970s.  The line, designed to move copper from Zambia to the port of Dar es Salaam on Tanzania's Indian Ocean coast, has deteriorated and is operating at a fraction of its potential.

TAZARA will also compete in the years ahead with a new US and EU funded railway that will move minerals from the mining areas of Zambia and the DRC to the Angolan port of Lobito on the Atlantic coast.

Taiwan's Shrinking Footprint in Africa

 The Diplomat published on 30 October 2024 a commentary titled "Taiwan's Shrinking Footprint in Africa Amid Chinese Pressure" by Samir Bhattacharya, India's Observer Research Foundation.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan rather than China.  China has now pressured South Africa to demand that Taiwan move its "Taipei Liaison Office" from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial capital of Johannesburg and rename it a trade office.  Taiwan, citing a 1997 agreement with South Africa, is objecting to the demand.  There has been no official, public comment from the US government.  

Taiwan and South Africa to Discuss Differenes

 Focus Taiwan published on 29 October 2024 an article titled "South Africa to Discuss Ties in Wake of Office Relocation Order: MOFA,"

Earlier this month South Africa ordered Taiwan to move its representative office from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial center in Johannesburg.  Taipei objected.  Taiwan and South Africa have now agreed to engage in talks on "bilateral relations going forward."

Arms Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 a paper titled "The Complex Trends and Patterns in Arms Transfers to Sub-Saharan Africa" by Pieter Wezeman, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The 6 largest arms importers in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2019-23 were Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, Mali, Uganda, and Ethiopia.  The major arms suppliers during this period were China (19 percent), Russia (17 percent), and France (11 percent).  Imports of arms by countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining in recent years.

Indian Ocean Security and US Strategy

 The East-West Center published on 18 October 2024 a bulletin titled "Connecting West and East: Indian Ocean Security and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy" by Nilanthi Samaranayake.  

Washington appears to be increasingly recognizing the importance of the western Indian Ocean, suggesting that it may be starting to conceive of the Indian Ocean as a region on its own terms.  

Ethiopia: Internal Power Struggle in Tigray Region

 African Arguments posted on 29 October 2024 a commentary titled "Power Struggle in Tigray" by Gerrit Kurtz, German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

An intergenerational power struggle is taking place within Tigray Region that pits Debretsion Gebremichael against Getachew Reda.  It has little to do with ideology.  Some Tigrayans believe Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is encouraging the division behind the scenes.  

Encircling Ethiopia

 The Hill published on 28 October 2024 a commentary titled "Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: An Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Axis" by Imran Khalid.  

The author argues that the recent summit in Asmara of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia was an effort "to encircle Ethiopia."  Egypt, frustrated with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, may be positioning itself for a proxy war, using Eritrea to destabilize its neighbor.  

Agreement on Nile Water Issues Complicated by Regional Disputes

 The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa published on 17 October 2024 an analysis titled "Nile River Basin Commission: Regional Strife Could Make a Difficult Task Impossible" by Moses Chrispus Okello, ISS.

Regional conflicts, especially those involving Somalia provoked by Ethiopia's memorandum of conversation with Somaliland, have complicated any attempt to reach agreement on Nile water issues by the Nile River Basin Commission.  

The Digital Silk Road and Digital Repression in the Indo-Pacific

 Article 19, a UK-based international organization with 9 regional offices devoted to freedom of expression, posted on 18 April 2024 a report titled "The Digital Silk Road: China and the Rise of Digital Repression in the Indo-Pacific."

The report examines China's digital infrastructure and governance influence in Cambodia, Malaysia, Nepal, and Thailand.  While the study does not deal with Africa, it offers lessons for China's digital engagement with the continent.

The report argues that assessing China's partnerships and what they mean for rising repression is vital to understanding China's ambitions to rewire the world and rewrite the rules that govern the digital space.  By expanding its authoritarian model, China aims to ultimately supplant the tenets of internet freedom and rights-based principles of global digital governance.  

China's Information Campaign in Africa

 The Diplomat published on 23 October 2024 a commentary titled "China's Battle for Narratives in Africa" by Samir Bhattacharya and Yuvvraj Singh, both with India's Observer Research Foundation.  

China has built narratives to its advantage in Africa, a region that has increasingly become a theater of great power rivalry.  China's information strategy in Africa consists of three parts.  First, it hosts and trains numerous African media professionals each year, teaching them to promote Chinese investments as a positive force.  Second, China invests in local African media outlets, influencing their editorial practices to align with the Chinese narrative.  Third, China sells technology to African governments that enables tighter control over digital information, including blocking websites and shutting down internet access.