Thursday, October 16, 2025

China, India, and Brazil Compete in the Indian Ocean

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 16 October 2025 a commentary titled "The Alckmin Accord: Redefining Strategic Alignment in the Indian Ocean."

Brazil's Vice President Geraldo Alckmin visited India and reportedly solidified a strategic Indian Ocean alliance built on mutual economic benefit and collaborative defense strategies.  This alliance developed as a counter to growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.  All three countries are members of BRICS.  

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

China-EU Competition in Africa

 Courthouse News Service published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "EU Woos Mineral-rich Africa as China Tightens Resource Grip" by Yuval Molina Obedman.  

The European Union pledged $440 Billion through 2027 in infrastructure investment in Africa as it competes for influence with China. The EU program emphasizes private sector investment and blended finance using grants, loans, and guarantees.  

Ethiopia: Ethnic Cleansing in Western Tigray

 The Economist published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "The Forgotten Horror of Western Tigray."

The article reports that for nearly 5 years ethnic cleansing has been occurring in Western Tigray on a scale reminiscent of the Balkan wars of the 1990s.  

Growing Tension in Ethiopia-Eritrea Relationship

 Agence France Presse published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of 'Actively' Preparing for War."  

Ethiopia's foreign minister sent a letter last week to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stating that the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front "and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."

The Reporter published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "Defusing the Mounting Ethio-Eritrea Tensions."

It suggests there is still a narrow window for preventive action and calls for the reopening of diplomatic channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea and a mediated dialogue by a neutral third party such as the Africa Union or the United Nations.  


Monday, October 13, 2025

US-Africa Partnership to Counter Chinese Supply Chain

 The National Interest published on 7 October 2025 an article titled "How Africa Can Shift Supply Chains from China" by Daniel Swift, Freedom for Defense of Democracies.

The author concludes that Congress should seize the moment to create a new US-Africa partnership model that relocates specific buyer-driven light manufacturing supply chains from China to Africa.  

China-US Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The Conversation published on 12 October 2025 a commentary titled "China and the US Are in a Race for Critical Minerals.  African Countries Need to Make the Rules" by James Boafo, Rochelle Spencer, and Senyo Dotsey.

Africa holds about 30 percent of the world's critical minerals sought by the United States and China.  The analysis urges African countries to determine for themselves how to benefit from this global competition.  

China-Africa Artificial Intelligence Cooperation

 BABL AI posted on 2 October 2025 an article titled "China, Africa Outline Joint AI Governance and Innovation Plan" by Jeremy Werner.  

China and African nations announced last month a plan that outlines initiatives to expand artificial intelligence (AI) research, governance, and capacity-building across the continent. China will host annual China-Africa Digital Economy and Cybersecurity Seminars, offering training in AI data security and new technology applications.

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Sudan: Military Situation and Peace Process

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 10 October 2025 a 46-minute podcast titled "Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan's War?" hosted by Richard Atwood with ICG experts Shewit Woldemichael, Alan Boswell, and Yasmine Farouk.  

The podcast summarizes the military situation in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  The SAF is slowly moving elements of government from Port Sudan back to Khartoum, where it has consolidated control.  Both the SAF and RSF are receiving increasingly sophisticated military equipment such as drones.  Turkey, Egypt, Russia, and Iran support the SAF while the UAE is the major backer of the RSF, which has established a parallel secular government in Darfur.  

The Sudan conflict is now the highest priority for Massad Boulos, the Trump administration special envoy for Africa.  He represents the United States as part of the Quad, which includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, and recently called for a ceasefire and proposed an eventual peace plan.  UAE support for the RSF continues to be an obstacle but may still conclude there are important reasons for ending the conflict.  The SAF and its allies are more opposed to the Quad peace effort than is the RSF.  

Ethiopia: Seeking Unity in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "'National Unity for Survival': From Words to Action" by Abrar Fitwi, Saint Mary's College in Indiana.  

The author argues that Tigrayans can achieve unity only if they pursue a path that includes a reformed political program, credible leadership, a non-partisan army, and independent judiciary, media, and other institutions.  

Friday, October 10, 2025

USAID Shutdown Has Severe Impact on African Health Programs

 The Washington Post published on 10 October 2025 an article titled "Medical Supply Shortages Follow U.S. Aid Cuts in Africa" by Tobi Raji and Katharine Houreld.  

Africa has reportedly lost more than $8 Billion in funding since the Trump administration dismantled USAID earlier this year, The impact has been especially significant in the case of US-financed health care programs.  The article emphasizes the damage on programs in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

Taiwan Feels Pressure of Beijing in South Africa

 The Straits Times reprinted on 6 October 2025 an article by Bloomberg titled "Chinese Pressure Shreds Taiwan's Relationship with South Africa" by Antony Squazzin.

Under pressure from Beijing, the Taipei Liaison Office in the political capital of Pretoria is being forced by the South African government to move to the commercial capital of Johannesburg.  There has been a steady decline in South Africa-Taiwan relations.  The current head of the Taipei Liaison Office said, "we are not welcome here."

Assessing the Quad's Ability to End the Sudan Conflict

 The Emirates Policy Center posted on 9 October 2025 a commentary titled "Quad Initiative to End the War in Sudan: Positions and Challenges."

The United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE introduced an initiative to end the conflict in Sudan.  This paper analyzes the potential success of the initiative within the context of ongoing military and political developments in Sudan.  The brief concluded that the initiative could play a crucial role in shaping the path toward a peaceful political resolution in Sudan.  

Africa: US Ends AGOA and China Gains

 The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies published on 30 September 2025 a policy brief titled "China Set to Fill Gap from Expiration of Key U.S.-Africa Trade Program" by Daniel Swift and Angela Howard.

The U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on 30 September, ending duty free access for many products from the continent.  Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Eswatini, and Mauritius had taken particular advantage of AGOA since it was signed by President Clinton.  As Africa's largest trading partner, China is expected to benefit most from the decrease in US-Africa trade.  

Somali Government Retakes Villages from Al-Shabaab

 The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Somalia--Counterterrorism" by Michael DeAngelo and Hannah Ochs.

Somali government and African Union forces pushed al-Shabaab out of several villages in the Lower Shabelle that al-Shabaab had held since March 2025.  

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa

 The Conversation published on 7 October 2025 a commentary titled "Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa: Here's How" by Elisa Gambino and Costanza Franceschini.  

China's state loans once powered the ability of Chinese companies to win construction contracts in Africa.  But the loans have declined significantly.  Since 2019, Chinese lenders have committed only $6 billion for the development of African infrastructure.  Yet, Chinese companies continue to expand their construction of infrastructure projects in Africa.  This article explains how.  

Kenya Swaps Dollar Payments to China for Yuan

 The Kenya Times published on 7 October 2025 an article titled "How Kenya Will Save Ksh 27 Billion Annually after Major Loan Deal with China" by Jason Ndunyu.

Kenya is converting repayment from US dollars to Chinese yuan of its $5 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of China used to build the Standard Guage Railway from Mombasa to the outskirts of Nairobi.  This agreement is expected to save Kenya about $215 million annually in debt servicing costs.   

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Podcast on China's Relations with Africa

 New Books Network posted on 8 October 2025 a one hour and 43-minute podcast on "China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement."

Kanayo Anthony Nomeh, Florida International University, hosted the podcast with the authors of the book, Joshua Eisenman and me.  The podcast covers all aspects of the relationship between Africa and China, although the focus is on security and political issues.  

Seeking Strategic Advantage with African Countries

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 6 October 2025 a commentary titled "China's Lavish Pledge: Will $51 Billion Buy Africa's Military Loyalty to Beijing?" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

African states are engineering a multipolar security order that serves their interests by refusing to choose among the major powers.  They are exploiting great power competition to expand their strategic autonomy.  As a result, China's military training and arms sales translate into access and goodwill, not strategic alignment or exclusive loyalty.  

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Region's Political Disputes

 Ethiopia Insight published on 7 October 2025 a commentary titled "GERD at Dawn: Ethiopia's Triumph and the Niles's Uncertainty" by Muktar Ismail, a regional analyst.

Now that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD) is complete and functioning with no apparent damage to downstream Sudan and Egypt, the primary downstream concern is how water will be released from the reservoir behind the dam during a long-term drought in the Nile Basin.  Disagreements with Egypt and Sudan over the GERD are also spilling over into other regional disputes.

Monday, October 6, 2025

Chinese Fishing in West Africa

 The Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame published in October 2025 a paper titled "Chinese Fishing in West Africa: Responding to the Environmental and Social Impacts" by Ebimboere Seiyafa et al.

The paper examines the ecological and social risks posed by Chinese fishing in West Africa and offers policy recommendations to strengthen legal protection and enhance regional cooperation to safeguard the region's fisheries and water systems.  

Chinese Demand for Timber and Wildlife in West Africa

 The Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame published in October 2025 a paper titled "Chinese Demand for Timber and Wildlife in West Africa: Responding to the Environmental and Social Impacts" by various authors.

China's demand for timber and illegal wildlife products contributes significantly to deforestation and biodiversity loss in West Africa.  This paper recommends ways to strengthen enforcement and promote accountability to address environmental and social impacts of Chinese demand for timber and wildlife.

Chinese Mining in West Africa

 The Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame published in October 2025 a paper titled "Chinese Mining in West Africa: Responding to the Environmental and Social Impacts" by various authors.

The paper proposes national and regional policy recommendations for addressing the detrimental social and environmental impacts of Chinese mining in West Africa.

Zambian Perceptions of China, US, and Russia

 Afrobarometer published on 29 September 2025 a survey titled "Zambians Support Open Trade, Greater African Voice in International Affairs" by Edward Chibwill. 

A broader survey of Zambian public opinion includes an assessment of perceptions of China, the United States, and Russia.  Zambians expressed a 51 percent positive view of China's economic and political influence in the country versus an 8 percent negative view.  The ranking for the United States was 45 percent positive and 9 percent negative and for Russia 19 percent positive and 15 percent negative.  The remaining percentages were neutral.  

The percentage of Zambians who viewed China's influence on Zambia as positive in 2014 was 72 percent.  It declined to 61 percent in 2020 and 42 percent in 2022 before rising to 51 percent in 2024. 

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Tanzania-China Love Fest

 Tanzania's Daily News published on 3 October 2025 an article titled "China and Tanzania: Six Decades of Strategic Partnership Fuelling Growth" by Esther Takwa.  

Marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Beijing's ambassador to Tanzania and Tanzania's minister of foreign affairs and East African cooperation worked hard to exceed the other in heaping praise on the China-Tanzania relationship.  The journalist reporting the story concluded that the speeches by the ambassador and the minister "collectively reveal a dynamic, multi-dimensional partnership transcending traditional diplomacy."

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Africa's Critical Minerals and Russia, China, and the US

The Africa Policy Research Institute published on 29 September 2025 an analysis titled "From Minerals to Influence: Resource-for-Security Deals Reshaping Power Dynamics in Africa" by Amandine Gnanguenon and Marius Kretzschmar.   

Critical raw materials, especially minerals, have become Africa's major attraction for Russia, China, and the United States.  Each country has a different approach for linking critical minerals to its security interests.