Saturday, March 31, 2018

Africa Investment Index 2018

Quantum Global, a Swiss-based private company focused on investment management in Africa, has just published its "Africa Investment Index 2018."

Its ranking of African countries takes into account growth factors such as GDP, liquidity, economic risks, business environment, demographic factors, and the Facebook penetration rate. Morocco emerges as the most attractive investment destination in Africa followed by Egypt, Algeria, Botswana, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa, Ethiopia, Zambia, Kenya, and Senegal.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia

The CTC Sentinel published in March 2018 a study titled "Black Banners in Somalia: The State of al-Shabaab's Territorial Insurgency and the Specter of the Islamic State" by Christopher Anzalone, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

The author concludes that militarily al-Shabaab retains significant capabilities to launch a range of attacks targeting both military and soft targets, including major suicide-vehicle bombings inside the most secure areas of the country such as central Mogadishu. The Islamic State in Somalia, al-Shabaab's main jihadi competitor, continues to lag behind it in terms of numbers, military capabilities, and media reach.

Ethiopia: Challenges Facing New Prime Minister

African Arguments posted on 28 March 2018 an analysis titled "Wax & Gold: The Tightrope Challenges Facing Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed" by Mohammed Girma, London School of Theology.

The author argues that Ethiopia's new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will have to impose major structural reforms to appease protesters but not alienate powerful vested interests.

Russia Ramps Up Aid and Arms Sales to Africa

World Politics Review published on 29 March 2018 an article titled "As the U.S. Disengages, Russia Ramps Up Aid and Arms Sales to Sub-Saharan Africa" by Samuel Ramani, St. Anthony's College at Oxford.

The author says Russia is actively seeking to expand its economic and security influence in Africa. It efforts to expand its economic influence have principally focused on giving Moscow a foothold to access the region's key minerals. It uses arms sales to sway African leaders to give them preferential access to natural resources.

Kenya: Kenyatta-Odinga Deal

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) posted on 23 March 2018 a commentary titled "Raila Odinga Makes Another Dubious Deal" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

The author suggests that the 9 March reconciliation between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga has obvious advantages for Kenyatta but less obvious ones for Odinga. The proof of the deal is whether the joint office Kenyatta and Odinga set up really tackles fundamental challenges identified in the agreement.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Trump Administration: Africa, Security, and China

The Hill published on 19 March 2018 an article titled "Trump's Africa Policy Takes Form with Focus on Security (and China)" by Landry Signe, fellow at Brookings Institution, and Nathaniel D.F. Allen, fellow at the US Institute of Peace.

The article concludes that Trump's efforts to refocus US policy in Africa in a direction that is more realpolitik is not a huge departure from previous Republican administrations. Yet by prioritizing security and cutting back on aid and trade, the US may weaken its long-term strategic position in Africa.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Ethiopia: Background to Protests

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 20 March 2018 an analysis titled "The Many Layers of the Ethiopia Crisis" by Mohammed Ademo, a freelance journalist.

The author argues that the answer to Ethiopia's malaise is greater democratic space and national reconciliation and removal of the state of emergency. It is also necessary to address the root causes of the protests in Ethiopia: the inequity within the governing coalition and the need for legitimacy.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Chinese Companies and Individuals Externalize Money from Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's Times Live ran a story on 19 March 2018 titled "Who is Zimbabwe's Biggest Looter? Mnangagwa Names Names" by James Thompson. The report says President Emmerson Mnangagwa identified Chinese mining and retail companies as dominating the list of "externalization" of foreign currency, i.e. moving money that is not the legal tender of the country outside Zimbabwe.

In a follow-up article titled "China Rejects Mnangagwa's 'Looters List'" by James Thompson on 21 March 2018, Times Live reported that the Chinese embassy in Zimbabwe said the list is not accurate. The article put the amount of money moved by Chinese nationals out of the country at $363 million.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Sudan: Prospects for Economic Re-engagement

The Atlantic Council published in March 2018 an issue brief titled "Sudan: Prospects for Economic Re-engagement" by Jeffrey Herbst, senior fellow at the Brenthurst Foundation.

The paper describes the political economy of Sudan, which shapes Khartoum's priorities and affects how it will respond to demands for economic reform. It reviews the immediate steps that the US and Sudan can take to improve economic relations, now that most sanctions have been eliminated. Finally, it discusses what should be done to prepare for Sudan's removal from the state sponsors of terrorism list.

US-Sudan Relations: A Way Forward

The Atlantic Council published in March 2018 an issue brief titled "Sudan: Soft Power, Cultural Engagement, and National Security" by Tim Carney and Mary Carlin Yates.

As part of a program to improve US-Sudan relations, the authors comment that the reforms necessary to drive real change--improvements in governance, rule of law, human rights, and political participation--are well known and must remain a centerpiece of US-Sudan engagement. They should not, however, take a back seat to narrow counterterrorism concerns.

Sudan-US Engagement Recommendations

The Atlantic Council published in March 2018 an issue brief titled "Sudan: Politics, Engagement, and Reform" by Johnnie Carson and Zach Vertin.

In an effort to improve relations between Sudan and the United States, the paper makes a series of recommendations to the government of Sudan and, if implemented, indicates the appropriate response from the United States.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

US Policy in Ethiopia Past and Present

Oromia Media Network's Jilcha Hamid interviewed me on 22 March 2018 concerning US policy in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Much of the interview focused on my time in Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999.

Mutual Benefits of Ethiopia's Refugee Policy

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 20 March 2018 an analysis titled "Mutual Benefits of Ethiopia's Refugee Policy" by Tsion Tadesse Abebe, ISS researcher.

Ethiopia is the second largest refugee-hosting country in Africa. The author argues that Ethiopia's receptivity to refugees, especially from South Sudan and Somalia, can also serve the interests of Ethiopia.

Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki

The Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs published on 12 March 2018 an analysis titled "Maintaining Power by Breaking Up Society: Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki" by Bahlbi Y. Malk, Canadian Partnership for Reconstruction and Development.

The author argues that Isaias Afwerki has maintained control of Eritrea since independence through a successful policy of divide and rule.

The African Union and a Stable Ethiopia

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 16 March 2018 a commentary titled "Why the African Union Needs a Stable Ethiopia" by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant.

While acknowledging that the African Union, which has its headquarters in Addis Ababa, has little ability to influence the internal political situation in Ethiopia, the author reports that the AU is increasingly concerned about anti-government protests in the country.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

China, the US, and Ethiopia

The Diplomat posted on 20 March 2018 a commentary titled "Why the West Needs to Stop Complaining and Start Engaging China in Africa" by Pippa Morgan, a PhD candidate at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Using Ethiopia as the example, the author suggests that much more could be achieved in Africa if China and the West proactively worked together across the continent. Much of the political discourse seems unable to accept that China's role is equaling--or even surpassing--that of the West.

While the author's suggestion is well taken, there are many reasons why there has not been more cooperation between China and the West in Africa and some of the reasons are found in China and with African governments. If African governments do not want China and the West to cooperate, it probably will not happen.

South Sudan's Transnational Networks

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2018 a study titled "The Role of Transnational Networks and Mobile Citizens in South Sudan's Global Community: A Pilot Study Focused on Melbourne and Juba" by Cedric Barnes, Freddie Carver, Santino Atem Deng, Gabriel Kiir, Nicki Kindersley, Rebecca Lorins and Sarah Maher.

The study takes a holistic approach to the dynamics of the South Sudanese transnational community and its impact within South Sudan. International migrations since the 1960s have created a global South Sudanese community that has been fundamental to the challenging process of forming a South Sudanese state. These networks have also undermined political and civil responsibility within South Sudan. The research confirms the extreme challenges faced by South Sudanese communities in their locations of displacement, in this case Australia.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

2018 World Happiness Report: East Africa and Horn

The 2018 World Happiness Report has just been released. It evaluates 156 countries based on the pooled results from Gallup World Poll surveys from 2015-2017. The key variables are income, healthy life expectancy, social support, freedom, trust, and generosity.

East Africa and the Horn do not score well. The best performer at number 98 is Somalia! Go figure. Kenya comes in at number 124, Ethiopia at 127, Uganda at 135, Sudan at 137, Tanzania at 153, and South Sudan at 154. Eritrea is not ranked.

Monday, March 19, 2018

African Countries at Risk of Debt Distress

There has been much public discussion of debt distress in Africa recently with the finger often pointed at China. For the record, the International Monetary Fund, identified as of 1 January 2018 the following African countries as currently in debt distress but did not assign any blame for the distress: Chad, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. The IMF identified the following countries as being at high risk of debt distress: Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Djibouti, Gambia, Ghana, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, and Zambia.

Prominent Saudi-Ethiopian Swept Up in Saudi Anti-Corruption Campaign

The New York Times published on 16 March 2018 an article titled "He Owns Much of Ethiopia. The Saudis Won't Say Where They're Hiding Him" by Danny Hakim and Ben Hubbard.

Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Al Amoudi is a well known businessman with significant assets in Ethiopia. His mother is Ethiopian and his father Saudi. He was recently swept up in a Saudi anti-corruption campaign and reportedly being held in a hotel in Saudi Arabia.

Mega-Themes in Africa-China Relations 2017

Lina Getachew Ayenew, Ethiopia-based author and consultant focused on Africa-China relations, recently posted her 2017 "Mega-Themes in Africa-China Relations."

The focus of the 2017 edition is the Belt and Road Initiative, China versus the US, ivory trade, technology, education and healthcare.

How Many Chinese Businesses Are in Africa?

Asia Times published on 16 March 2018 an article titled "How Many 'Chinese' Businesses Are in Africa?" by Doug Tsuruoka.

The article notes the comment in the June 2017 McKinsey & Company report titled "Dance of the Lions and Dragons" that "there are more than 10,000 Chinese-owned firms operating in Africa today." China-Africa expert Thierry Pairault rightly points out that the authors of the McKinsey & Company report do not define what is a Chinese firm. He offers the example of small Chinese-owned businesses in Africa that are locally incorporated, which makes them local and not Chinese enterprises. Does the McKinsey report count the mom and pop Chinese restaurant owner or acupuncturist? We don't know.

The problem is that no one knows for certain how many Chinese companies there are even if there is an agreed upon definition. The Secretary-General of the China-Africa Business Council, which represents Chinese companies in Africa, told me in Beijing in June 2017 there are an estimated 8,000 Chinese companies in Africa while the Ministry of Commerce has 4,000 registered companies. Again, there is no definition and there may be double counting as some companies have multiple branches. So take your pick: 4,000, 8,000, 10,000 or something else.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Sub-Saharan Africa and Democratization Through 2022

The National Intelligence Council published in February 2018 an analysis titled "Sub-Saharan Africa: Pitched Contests for Democratization Through 2022."

The analysis concludes that standing in contrast to what academics have noted as a global drift toward authoritarianism, democracy remains a potent ideal in Africa. This tug of war between leaders and their constituents will become more intense through 2022, as stagnating economies, urbanization, and access to technology upset many longstanding balances of power. The resulting volatility will pose challenges and create opportunities for the international community as it pursues its strategic interests in this rapidly changing landscape.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

China's Medical Aid in Africa

The Diplomat posted on 14 March 2018 an article titled "China's Medical Aid in Africa" by Long Wang, Xiangya Hospital at Central South University, and Joshua Bateman.

This is a generally positive account of China's public health program in Africa that began in 1963 with the sending of a Chinese medical team to Algeria.

Russia Tries to Ramp Up Relations with Africa

The Institute for Security Studies published on 13 March 2018 an analysis titled "Russia and Africa Meet Again" by Ronak Gopaldas, director at Signal Risk.

The author commented on the recent visit to Africa by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, noting that Africa's relationship with Russia is complementary rather than competitive. Russia is interested in obtaining African political support as it works to increase its relevance on global issues. It sees the advent of the Trump administration as a good time to reassert itself in Africa.

Is Justice Possible during South Sudan's Civil War?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 15 March 2018 a commentary titled "Is Justice Possible during South Sudan's Civil War?" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

Based on two recent death sentences, including one for a South African national, handed down recently by a court in Juba, the author suggests that probably no one is getting real justice in South Sudan.

Djibouti Economically Dependent on Ethiopia

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 12 March 2018 an analysis titled "Port Deal Underscores Djibouti's Reliance on Ethiopia" by Simon Allison, ISS consultant.

The author notes that Djibouti's economy is dependent on Ethiopia. Any disruption to Ethiopia's economy as a result of current political unrest will have a knock-on effect in Djibouti. The same argument applies to Somaliland's port of Berbera, where Ethiopia is expanding its connections.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Is There Any Prospect for Peace in South Sudan?

World Politics Review published on 14 March 2018 a commentary titled "A Resurrected Peace Plan Is the Best Hope for Ending South Sudan's Brutal War" by Andrew Green, a freelance journalist based inn Berlin.

In spite of the optimistic title of the author's commentary, he concludes there is no end in sight for the current negotiations as fighting continues for a fifth year and aid agencies report that 9,000 people are estimated to be losing access to food every day.

China's Energy Financing in Africa

The Global Development Policy Center at Boston University maintains a database called "China's Global Energy Finance," which tracks since 2000 Chinese financing by the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China to foreign governments in the energy sector.

As of 2017, it tracked $34.8 billion in China's energy finance for Africa out of a global total of $225.8 billion. Latin America received almost twice as much energy financing as Africa and Russia received more than all of Africa combined. The major recipients in Africa have been Angola, Nigeria, and Zambia.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Secretary Tillerson Visit to Africa Followed by Firing

The BBC Radio World Service asked me to comment on 13 March 2018 on Secretary of State Tillerson's visit to Africa followed by his abrupt firing by President Trump.

Kenyan Leaders Reconcile: Will It Last?

The International Crisis Group published on 13 March 2018 an analysis titled "After Kenya's Leaders Reconcile, a Tough Path Ahead."

Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga agreed on 9 March to address the deterioration of relationships between communities and aggressive antagonism and competition that has blighted repeated elections in Kenya. While this step is welcome, the hard part comes next.

African Migrants in China

The Africa Studies Quarterly published by the University of Florida devoted its February 2018 issue to "China-Africa Relations: Theoretical and Practical Perspectives on African 'Migrants' in China."

The issue contains the following articles:

--Introduction - China-Africa Relations: Theoretical and Practical Perspectives on African "Migrants" in China by Agnes Ngoma Leslie
--African Students in China: Research, Reality, and Reflection by Li Anshan
--From Pioneers to Professionals: African Brokers in a Maturing Chinese Marketplace by Heidi Ostbo Haugen
--The Bridge Is Not Burning Down: Transformation and Resilience within China's African Diaspora Communities by Adams Bodomo
--Transient: A Descriptive Concept for Understanding Africans in Guangzhou by Dong Niu

Time To Get Tough with Warring Faction Leaders in South Sudan

African Arguments posted on 12 March 2018 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Buying Off Elites To Stop Fighting Won't Work. Here Is What Might" by Daniel Akech Thiong, an independent consultant dealing with South Sudan.

The author argues that you cannot buy off warring elites in South Sudan. He calls for "emptying the fuel tank" by removing the rewards of war. This may include an arms embargo, asset freezes, and a travel ban.

Monday, March 12, 2018

US Concerns Over China's Expanding Role in Africa

CNN ran on 11 March 2018 a segment titled "'Weaponizing Capital': US Worries Over China's Expanding Role in Africa" by Steve George and Brad Lendon.

The piece focuses on China's growing security role in Africa, especially its new military facility in Djibouti and reports that Djibouti recently terminated a contract with Dubai-based port operator DP World to run the Doraleh Container Terminal. This has led to speculation that control of the operation may be given to a Chinese company.

Saturday, March 10, 2018

China-Africa Statistics and the Tillerson Visit to Africa

The China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies recently posted updated background papers on China-Africa relations intended to complement the visit to Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Chad and Nigeria by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

The first paper is titled "The United States and China in Africa: What Does [sic] the Data Say? 2016 Updates." The second is "China in East Africa and the Horn: Ports, Trains and Industrial Zones." The third is "China in West and Central Africa: Railways and Refineries."

China, Africa, and Presidential Term Limits

The Conversation posted on 8 March 2018 a commentary titled "Why China's Removal of Term Limits Is a Gift to African Despots" by David E. Kiwuwa, Princeton University.

The author concluded that the removal of China's presidential term limits adds a new dimension to the China-Africa relationship. African presidents now have a political godfather whose practice they can claim to emulate or use to validate their continued stay in office.

Friday, March 9, 2018

Sexual and Gender Based Violence against Refugees in Kenya and Uganda

Women in International Security published in March 2018 a policy brief titled "Sexual- and Gender-Based Violence in Refugee Settings in Kenya and Uganda" by Pearl Karuhanga Atuhaire and Grace Ndirangu, graduate students respectively at the Durban University of Technology and the African Nazarene University in Nairobi.

Their research concluded that female refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo at refugee camps in Kenya and Uganda face a high incidence of sexual- and gender-based violence. The authors argue that refugee settlements are not safe spaces for refugee women.

Trump Administration Africa Policy

The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 7 March 2018 a commentary titled "Trump's Policy Taking Shape with Tillerson's Trip" by John Campbell.

In view of the previous problems in the Trump administration's handling of Africa, the author concluded that the most important aspect of Secretary of State Tillerson's Africa trip is that it is happening at all.

Some African Traders Leaving China

Pambazuka News published on 9 March 2018 a commentary titled "African Traders in China: Is the Honeymoon Over?" by Daouda Cisse, independent researcher based in Canada.

In the last couple of years small numbers of African traders living in China have been leaving. The author argues that those who are leaving are concerned about overstaying their visas compounded by a more difficult business climate following the drop in world commodity prices. China's economic restructuring reportedly is not a significant factor.

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Protests in Eritrea

African Arguments published on 7 March 2018 a commentary titled "More Dissent in Eritrea: A Country Where Dissent Is Not Tolerated" by Abraham T. Zere.

The recent death in detention of a respected Muslim elder led to protests in Asmara. The author suggests this could lead to growing problems for the government of President Isaias Afewerki.

China's Investment in Africa: Problems with Numbers

Asia Times published on 7 March 2018 an article titled "How Accurate is Investment Reporting on China in Africa" by Doug Tsuruoka.

The article cites a recent analysis by the Financial Times that reports China invested $36 billion in Africa in 2016. It then provides China's official FDI flows to Africa in 2016 at just over $2 billion.

Neither of these figures represents the real number, which is not known with any certainty. The $36 billion cited by the Financial Times is much too high for the flow of Chinese FDI to Africa in 2016 for the reasons stated in the Asia Times article. At the same time, the official Chinese figure is too low because it only captures FDI reported to China's Ministry of Commerce. It does not include smaller investments and fails to capture Chinese FDI that passes through Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and other tax havens. Take all of these numbers with a grain of salt.

China-US Cooperation in Africa

The Institute for Security Studies published on 8 March 2018 a commentary titled "US and China Inch towards Awkward Cooperation in Africa" by Peter Fabricius.

The commentary emphasizes the recent US invitation to China to meet in Washington for purposes of discussing Africa. It implies this is a significant new initiative. In fact, China-US meetings on Africa at the assistant secretary of state level have occurred every one or two years, alternating between Washington and Beijing, dating back several administrations. There is no reason to believe the upcoming meeting will be any more significant than previous sessions.

Djibouti: Playground of Superpowers

The Institute for Security Studies recently posted a 22 minute podcast titled "View on Africa: Djibouti, Playground of Superpowers" by Simon Allison, Mail & Guardian.

The author discusses the importance of military bases in Djibouti from France, US, China, Japan, and Italy. He suggests that they play a major role in propping up the government of Djibouti.

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

China and African Debt

The Center for Global Development published on 5 March 2018 a report titled "Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective" by John Hurley, Scott Morris, and Gailyn Portelance.

The authors conclude that China's Belt and Road Initiative is unlikely to cause a systemic debt problem but will likely contribute to debt problems in some participating countries. In Africa, Djibouti is in the high risk category while Egypt, Ethiopia, and Kenya are in the significant risk category.

Monday, March 5, 2018

Ethiopia, China, and the Apparel Industry

Bloomberg Businessweek published on 2 March 2018 an article titled "China Is Turning Ethiopia into a Giant Fast-Fashion Factory" by Bill Donahue.

The article describes the challenges of developing an apparel industry in Ethiopia and warns that it may be necessary to move more cautiously in the years ahead.

China Filling Void Left by US in Africa

The Washington Diplomat published on 28 February 2018 an article titled "Experts Urge Increased U.S. Engagement in Africa as China Fills the Void" by Ryan R. Migeed.

The article argues that in the absence of the United States in Africa, a more assertive China is rushing to fill the void. However, China's investments in Africa are strategic, not altruistic. Secretary of State Tillerson's upcoming trip to Africa is an opportunity to reverse the slide in American influence on the continent.

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Ethiopia and the State of Emergency

The Washington Post published on 3 March 2018 an article titled "Under a New State of Emergency, Ethiopia Is on the Brink of Crisis, Again" by Paul Schemm.

The author commented that while the government of Ethiopia sees the current state of emergency--the second in two years--as necessary to restore order required for any reform, critics see it as a way of perpetuating the status quo.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Somaliland: Edna Adan Ismail's Contribution to Women's Health

The Lancet published on 3 March 2018 an article titled "Edna Adan Ismail: Midwife and Champion of Women's Health" by Sharmila Devi.

Edna, now 80 years old and once married to deceased Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal, has devoted her life to women's health issues. I had the honor early this century to visit the hospital she created in Hargeisa. The article describes her contributions to women's health in the Horn of Africa.

The article is available free of charge, but you must register to see all of it.

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Ethiopia and the "Black Panther" Movie

The Washington Post published on 27 February 2018 an article titled "Africa's Real Wakanda and the Struggle to Stay Uncolonized" by Paul Schemm.

The Marvel comics movie "Black Panther" has wowed audiences across the United States and around the world. The author discusses how Ethiopian history may have inspired the mythical African kingdom of Wakanda portrayed in the movie.